Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Twin Cities, MN

499 
WWUS53 KMPX 090404
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1104 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

MNC145-153-090430-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-250809T0430Z/
Stearns MN-Todd MN-
1104 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT 
FOR NORTH CENTRAL STEARNS AND SOUTH CENTRAL TODD COUNTIES...

At 1104 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Sauk Centre, 
or 26 miles southeast of Alexandria, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
         to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Sauk Centre, Birch Lakes State Forest, Sauk Centre Airport and St. 
  Rosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from 
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large 
hail.

Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Seek 
shelter immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor of a 
well-built structure.

&&

LAT...LON 4577 9495 4579 9496 4587 9481 4573 9472
      4570 9493
TIME...MOT...LOC 0352Z 229DEG 22KT 4569 9496

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Dunleavy

761 
WWUS53 KMPX 090409
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1109 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

MNC145-153-090419-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-250809T0430Z/
Stearns MN-Todd MN-
1109 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTH CENTRAL 
STEARNS AND SOUTH CENTRAL TODD COUNTIES...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However, small hail is 
still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT 
Saturday for a portion of central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4577 9495 4579 9496 4587 9481 4573 9472
      4570 9493
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 229DEG 22KT 4574 9488

$$

Dunleavy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1029 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated heat and humidity of today becomes noticeably less so
  starting Saturday, continuing into next week.

- A round of thunderstorms is likely late this evening into
  early Saturday morning, with a few storms possibly strong to
  severe.

- Much more tranquil weather conditions from late Saturday
  through much of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western Minnesota
along a frontal boundary. The 09.00z MPX sounding shows a strong
cap (~24C at 800mb), but the profile out of ABR is more
favorable with considerably cooler temperatures aloft. The
convection that has managed to develop near KAXN has overcome
what capping does exist (although it's been slow to intensify),
but appears that it's becoming more organized. Anticipating
this line to fill in to the south over the next couple of hours
and continue to move to the northeast through early morning. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued, with the main threats
being large hail initially before transitioning to more of a
damaging wind threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

A fairly extensive stratocumulus deck has lingered across
central-southern MN and western WI throughout the day in the
wake of early morning convection. In addition, this cloud cover
has generally remained north of a warm front wobbling over the
MN/IA border which has had a hard time pushing northward through
the day today. This has not only kept instability from rising
higher than expected but has also kept temps/dewpoints/heat
index values lower than expected. The first result of this has
been the early cancellation of all heat advisory headlines
across the WFO MPX coverage area. The next result has been lower
CAPE/higher CINH across the area, evidenced by showers trying
to move into southern MN from the FSD area that has been
weakening while shifting eastward and racing away from the
nearly north-south oriented cold front over the far eastern
Dakotas.

Nevertheless, there is still sufficient instability in advance
of the cold front per SPC analysis, including MUCAPE in the
4000-5000 j/kg range, over the southern 1/3 of MN that
additional storms could take advantage of later this evening
into the overnight hours should deep layer shear better align
with the progression of the surface cold front. There is still
plenty of uncertainty as to whether thunderstorms that develop
this evening over the eastern Dakotas and progress eastward
across central-southern MN can become surface based to tap into
the high instability. So while there is little doubt that
thunderstorms will develop this evening, thus having PoPs into
the Likely category, it is a matter of the storm strength and
them being elevated vs surface-based, which if surface-based,
they could then tap into the low-level MUCAPE and the strong
low-level jetting and bulk shear. So, overall a conditional and
uncertain scenario for severe weather is expected tonight. The
main hazard still looks to be damaging wind gusts, but large
hail and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

The precipitation will have pushed through the bulk of the
coverage area by daybreak Saturday morning with only a few
generic (non- severe) thunderstorms possible by that point as
the cold front makes continued progress eastward through the day
Saturday. This will drop the precip chances across the area
from west to east and also make for cooler and less humid
conditions across the coverage area. Highs will only range from
the upper 70s to mid 80s on Saturday.

For next week, very similar day-to-day conditions are expected
with very few chances for precipitation. In fact, many
locations may well experience no precipitation for the entire
week. This is due to generally high pressure prevailing at the
surface, even despite the arrival of a frontal boundary midweek
that looks mainly dry, and weak ridging aloft to keep
appreciable trough axes away from the area. Highs will remain in
the upper 70s to mid 80s range with tolerable humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Low-range VFR for all TAF sites at initialization but the
expectation is still there to have convection late this evening
through early morning Saturday at all sites. A complex of
thunderstorms is expected to develop over the eastern Dakotas
late this evening then steadily shift eastward over central-
southern MN and western WI through the overnight hours. VFR-
worthy rain showers will likely precede and follow the main
batch of storms, but the TSRA itself will likely drop conditions
to MVFR, with IFR visibility possible should the heavier showers
move directly across the terminals. Precipitation will end from
wet to east around daybreak onward, with the precip lingering
longest at EAU. Breezy S winds at the start will shift to a more
W direction behind the precip, with the stronger storms possibly
producing strong variable wind gusts.

KMSP...Have nudged the best timing for TSRA slightly later in
this TAF set, looking for it to move across MSP in the 07z-10z
timeframe. Gusty winds and heavy rain look to be the main
hazards, but some hail cannot be ruled out. Ceilings and
visibility will likely drop to MVFR during the time of TSRA,
with IFR visibility possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through this evening, and once again from around
sunrise onward behind the precipitation.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

UPDATE...Dye
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
651 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
091000-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
651 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Clusters of thunderstorms will likely develop along a cold front
this evening across western Minnesota and track eastward through
the overnight hours. A few thunderstorms may be severe, with the
main hazards being large hail and damaging winds. A tornado cannot
be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Lingering thunderstorms are possible across portions of western
Wisconsin and southern Minnesota on Saturday. Severe weather
chances are low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed tonight into early
Saturday morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
816 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

MNZ048-055-090145-
Swift MN-Pope MN-
816 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...A THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN POPE AND NORTHEASTERN
SWIFT COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 816 PM CDT, Trained spotters reported a brief funnel cloud 5
miles southwest of Benson, or 21 miles north of Montevideo, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 30 mph.

SOURCE...Trained spotters reported.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Benson, Lake Hassel, Clontarf, Danvers, Benson Airport and Swift
  Falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4521 9568 4526 9578 4550 9561 4540 9533
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 213DEG 27KT 4526 9566

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Dunleavy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
931 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

MNZ048-049-090315-
Pope MN-Stearns MN-
931 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN POPE AND NORTHWESTERN
STEARNS COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 931 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Glenwood, or 27 miles south of Alexandria, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Sauk Centre, Melrose, Glenwood, Brooten, Grove Lake, Villard,
  Greenwald, Elrosa, Gilchrist, Meire Grove, Westport, Sedan, Padua,
  Glenwood Airport, Sauk Centre Airport and St. Rosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4541 9546 4549 9547 4568 9536 4575 9527
      4576 9465 4541 9514
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 225DEG 26KT 4551 9534

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Dunleavy

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1006 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     Hail             2 E West Union          45.80N 95.04W
08/08/2025  M0.88 Inch       Todd               MN   Trained Spotter

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1013 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     Hail             Sauk Centre             45.74N 94.96W
08/08/2025  M1.00 Inch       Stearns            MN   Trained Spotter

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1017 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     Hail             Sauk Centre             45.74N 94.96W
08/08/2025  M0.88 Inch       Stearns            MN   Trained Spotter

            Corrects previous hail report from Sauk
            Centre.

&&

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1025 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

MNZ048-049-057-090400-
Kandiyohi MN-Pope MN-Stearns MN-
1025 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN KANDIYOHI...
SOUTHEASTERN POPE AND NORTHWESTERN STEARNS COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM
CDT...

At 1025 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 7 miles northeast of Brooten to 7 miles
northeast of Kerkhoven, or extending from 27 miles southeast of
Alexandria to 11 miles northwest of Willmar, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  New London, Spicer, Brooten, Belgrade, Green Lake, Norway Lake,
  Greenwald, Elrosa, Meire Grove, Georgeville, Sibley State Park and
  Padua.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4527 9525 4557 9515 4567 9484 4523 9485
      4523 9525 4524 9525 4524 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 243DEG 23KT 4559 9504 4541 9513 4524 9521

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dunleavy