Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Twin Cities, MN

158 
WWUS53 KMPX 290628
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
128 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

MNC037-123-290638-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-250629T0700Z/
Dakota MN-Ramsey MN-
128 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTH CENTRAL DAKOTA 
AND SOUTHEASTERN RAMSEY COUNTIES...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for a 
portion of east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4507 9298 4506 9262 4480 9263 4480 9302
      4482 9300 4484 9301 4487 9301 4489 9302
      4489 9298
TIME...MOT...LOC 0614Z 275DEG 13KT 4493 9281

$$


MNC163-WIC093-109-290700-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-250629T0700Z/
Washington MN-Pierce WI-St. Croix WI-
128 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT FOR 
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON, NORTHWESTERN PIERCE AND SOUTHWESTERN ST. CROIX 
COUNTIES...

At 128 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hudson, or 8 
miles northwest of River Falls, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  River Falls, Woodbury, Cottage Grove, Inver Grove Heights, 
  Oakdale, South St. Paul, Stillwater, Hudson, Lake Elmo, Mahtomedi, 
  St. Paul Park, North Hudson, Bayport, Afton, Oak Park Heights, 
  Grant, Newport, Lakeland, Birchwood Village and Landfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from 
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds.

&&

LAT...LON 4507 9298 4506 9262 4480 9263 4480 9302
      4482 9300 4484 9301 4487 9301 4489 9302
      4489 9298
TIME...MOT...LOC 0614Z 247DEG 20KT 4492 9281

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Strus

958 
WWUS53 KMPX 290638
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
138 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

MNC163-290648-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-250629T0700Z/
Washington MN-
138 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON 
COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for a 
portion of east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4488 9277 4494 9275 4495 9275 4501 9274
      4503 9262 4480 9263 4480 9278 4481 9278
      4482 9277 4486 9277 4487 9276 4488 9276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0628Z 247DEG 20KT 4495 9272

$$


WIC093-109-290700-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-250629T0700Z/
Pierce WI-St. Croix WI-
138 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT FOR 
NORTHWESTERN PIERCE AND SOUTHWESTERN ST. CROIX COUNTIES...

At 138 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near River Falls, 
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  River Falls, Hudson, Afton, Lakeland, Kinnickinnic State Park, 
  Afton State Park, Willow River State Park and Burkhardt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from 
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds.

&&

LAT...LON 4488 9277 4494 9275 4495 9275 4501 9274
      4503 9262 4480 9263 4480 9278 4481 9278
      4482 9277 4486 9277 4487 9276 4488 9276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0628Z 279DEG 20KT 4491 9276

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Strus

139 
WWUS53 KMPX 290645
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
145 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

WIC093-109-290655-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-250629T0700Z/
Pierce WI-St. Croix WI-
145 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN PIERCE 
AND SOUTHWESTERN ST. CROIX COUNTIES...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However, heavy rain is 
still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for a 
portion of west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4488 9277 4494 9275 4495 9275 4501 9274
      4503 9262 4480 9263 4480 9278 4481 9278
      4482 9277 4486 9277 4487 9276 4488 9276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0638Z 279DEG 20KT 4490 9268

$$

Strus

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
642 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms expected to develop over west central MN late this
  afternoon and track south and east from there through the
  night. Threat for very large hail and tornadoes will be
  greatest where storms initiate in western MN, with the threat
  transitioning to more of a wind threat through the night as
  lines develop.

- Next period of active weather looks to come at the end of
  next week, with a possible frontal passage for the Fourth of
  July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Although initially the unforecast MCS that came out of SoDak this
morning added a good deal of uncertainty to the forecast. The wind
field across southern MN says that it's impacts on the atmosphere
were pretty minimal, with the main impact coming from its cloud
cover slowing down diurnal warming. West of the cloud cover, there
is a zone of enhanced WAA & isentropic lift near the h7 level that
is producing accas across western into central MN that's trying to
produce some convection as well, though this looks to remain
elevated and continue to struggle and will not be a part of the main
show expected for later today. As for the main show, that is
expected to kick off quickly between 6pm and 8pm out in the region
from Morris over to Mille Lacs. A slight delay in initiation thanks
to the morning MCS. This is on the nose of an impressive CAPE
gradient, where mlCAPE should be maximized in the 4000-5000 j/kg
range. The highest CAPE values will be capped, but it's just north
of the cap where storms will blow. Once they go, they'll go fast
given the instability. Forecast hodographs do have a clockwise
curve, but they're pretty short, indicative of the modest flow at
best. This high CAPE/low shear environment will favor multi-cell
clusters with occasional supercell structures. At initiation,
we'll have the greatest threat for very large hail and brief
tornadoes, but these will quickly congeal. This will likely
result in one or more forward propagating MCSs that will pose a
primarily wind threat through the rest of the night, but
confidence is low on how any MCSs will evolve.

The uncertainty for Sunday starts right away, besides any remnants
from tonight's MCS(S), we're also seeing several CAMs that show yet
another MCS coming out of SoDak late tonight into Sunday morning.
This MCS would come from the storms we're starting to bubble up in
northeast CO, with that energy heading for southern MN Sunday
morning. How big of a threat this activity will pose to southern MN
will come down to just how robust convection becomes over
western/central SoDak tonight. For the rest of Sunday, we'll see a
very weak and diffuse wind shift work across MN during the
afternoon, with upper 60/lower 70 dewpoints in place. This will
result in a diurnal uptick in storms again Sunday afternoon across
eastern MN, but given the weak flow, the severe threat looks pretty
low for Sunday, with an isolated severe storm possible. The only
thing that could change this idea is if we get robust convection
coming out of SoDak that kicks off an MCV that could serve as a
focus stronger storms over southeast MN and western WI during the
afternoon.

Monday will be pleasant, but we'll have the upper trough currently
over Alberta coming through during peak heating. Cooler temps aloft
will allow for the development of some scattered diurnal showers
Monday afternoon, with the greatest rain chances north of I-94.
Rising heights behind this trough will finally bring as a for sure
dry day on Tuesday.

For Wednesday and beyond, confidence in the forecast diminishes
considerably, with quite a bit of spread still present in the models
with how quickly moisture returns to the upper MS Valley. Looking at
the EPS, it currently favors a trough/frontal passage on Friday,
timed absolutely perfectly for all those afternoon and evening
Fourth of July celebrations you may have planned. No need to cancel
plans yet, but if you do plan on being out and about to celebrate
the Fourth, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the forecast
in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across central Minnesota
this evening. Expecting a line of storms to eventually move
through the area between 03-09z from northwest to southeast.
MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with these storms. Confidence
was lower further east for KEAU, so have opted to leave out any
overnight precip. Additional showers and storms are possible
tomorrow, mainly for eastern MN/western WI, but have only
included PROB30 for this.

KMSP...Storms are expected between 06-09z. There is a high
amount of uncertainty during the morning hours on whether or not
showers and storms stick around. Another round of showers and
storms are possible during the afternoon, but have only added a
PROB30 to account for this for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...Dye

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
140 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
291845-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
140 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over west central Minnesota
late this afternoon, tracking east and south across the rest of
central and southern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin tonight.
Initially, tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging wind gusts
will be possible, but the greatest severe hazard will transition
to a strong wind threat through the night.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Another round of strong to severe storms possible on Sunday with
the best chance in western Wisconsin. The greatest risk will be
for damaging winds.

More unsettled weather is expected Wednesday through the rest of
next week. Some strong to severe storms will be possible with any
storms that develop. Storms may possibly impact the area during
the late afternoon and evening on the Fourth of July.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this evening and
overnight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1251 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1241 AM     Hail             1 NNE Norwood Young Ame 44.79N 93.91W
06/29/2025  M1.25 Inch       Carver             MN   Trained Spotter

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
103 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     Tornado          2 SE Cologne            44.74N 93.75W
06/29/2025                   Carver             MN   Official NWS Obs

            TDS confirmed on radar.

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
105 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 AM     Tornado          3 SE Waconia            44.82N 93.76W
06/29/2025                   Carver             MN   Official NWS Obs

            TDS confirmed on radar.

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
112 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     Tornado          3 NNW Waconia           44.89N 93.82W
06/29/2025                   Carver             MN   Official NWS Obs

            TDS confirmed via radar.

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
113 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1221 AM     Tornado          2 S St. Bonifacius      44.88N 93.74W
06/29/2025                   Carver             MN   Official NWS Obs

            TDS confirmed via radar.

&&

RMD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
114 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     Tornado          1 NNW Victoria          44.88N 93.67W
06/29/2025                   Carver             MN   Official NWS Obs

            TDS confirmed via radar.

&&

RMD