Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Twin Cities, MN

993 
WWUS53 KMPX 290051
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
751 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

MNC121-149-151-290130-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-250629T0130Z/
Pope MN-Stevens MN-Swift MN-
751 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT 
FOR SOUTHERN POPE, SOUTHEASTERN STEVENS AND SWIFT COUNTIES...

At 751 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of 
Lake Hassel, or 26 miles southeast of Morris, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
         to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Benson, Murdock, Lake Hassel, Gilchrist, Clontarf, De Graff, 
  Danvers, Holloway, Benson Airport, Swift Falls and Monson Lake 
  State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from 
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large 
hail.

&&

LAT...LON 4520 9595 4527 9605 4546 9591 4549 9527
      4535 9526 4524 9526 4524 9525 4521 9525
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 265DEG 17KT 4540 9556

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Strus

863 
WWUS53 KMPX 290101
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
801 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

MNC121-149-151-290130-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-250629T0130Z/
Pope MN-Stevens MN-Swift MN-
801 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT 
FOR SOUTHERN POPE, SOUTHEASTERN STEVENS AND SWIFT COUNTIES...

At 801 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of 
Lake Hassel, or 26 miles northwest of Willmar, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
         to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Benson, Murdock, Lake Hassel, Gilchrist, Clontarf, De Graff, 
  Danvers, Holloway, Benson Airport, Swift Falls and Monson Lake 
  State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from 
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large 
hail.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for a portion of 
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4541 9595 4546 9591 4548 9554 4549 9527
      4535 9526 4524 9526 4524 9525 4521 9525
      4520 9585 4533 9601
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 272DEG 23KT 4541 9549

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Strus

483 
WWUS53 KMPX 290109
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
809 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

MNC121-149-151-290130-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-250629T0130Z/
Pope MN-Stevens MN-Swift MN-
809 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT 
FOR SOUTHERN POPE, SOUTHEASTERN STEVENS AND SWIFT COUNTIES...

At 809 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles north of 
Murdock, or 24 miles northwest of Willmar, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
         to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Benson, Murdock, Lake Hassel, Gilchrist, Clontarf, De Graff, 
  Danvers, Benson Airport, Swift Falls and Monson Lake State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from 
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large 
hail.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for a portion of 
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4541 9595 4546 9591 4548 9554 4549 9527
      4535 9526 4524 9526 4524 9525 4521 9525
      4520 9572 4535 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 273DEG 15KT 4538 9545

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Strus

758 
WWUS53 KMPX 290119
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
819 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

MNC149-290129-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-250629T0130Z/
Stevens MN-
819 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN STEVENS 
COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for a portion of 
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4524 9567 4532 9567 4546 9553 4549 9527
      4535 9526 4524 9526 4524 9525 4521 9525
      4520 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 273DEG 15KT 4538 9540

$$


MNC121-151-290130-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-250629T0130Z/
Pope MN-Swift MN-
819 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT 
FOR SOUTHEASTERN POPE AND EASTERN SWIFT COUNTIES...

At 819 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Murdock, or 21 
miles northwest of Willmar, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
         to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Benson, Murdock, Lake Hassel, Gilchrist, De Graff, Swift Falls, 
  Monson Lake State Park and Benson Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from 
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large 
hail.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for a portion of 
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4524 9567 4532 9567 4546 9553 4549 9527
      4535 9526 4524 9526 4524 9525 4521 9525
      4520 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 262DEG 37KT 4525 9558

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Strus

821 
WWUS53 KMPX 290127
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
827 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

MNC121-151-290137-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-250629T0130Z/
Pope MN-Swift MN-
827 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM CDT FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN POPE AND EASTERN SWIFT COUNTIES...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property. 
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, gusty 
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for a portion of 
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4524 9567 4532 9567 4546 9553 4549 9527
      4535 9526 4524 9526 4524 9525 4521 9525
      4520 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 262DEG 37KT 4527 9543

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
642 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms expected to develop over west central MN late this
  afternoon and track south and east from there through the
  night. Threat for very large hail and tornadoes will be
  greatest where storms initiate in western MN, with the threat
  transitioning to more of a wind threat through the night as
  lines develop.

- Next period of active weather looks to come at the end of
  next week, with a possible frontal passage for the Fourth of
  July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Although initially the unforecast MCS that came out of SoDak this
morning added a good deal of uncertainty to the forecast. The wind
field across southern MN says that it's impacts on the atmosphere
were pretty minimal, with the main impact coming from its cloud
cover slowing down diurnal warming. West of the cloud cover, there
is a zone of enhanced WAA & isentropic lift near the h7 level that
is producing accas across western into central MN that's trying to
produce some convection as well, though this looks to remain
elevated and continue to struggle and will not be a part of the main
show expected for later today. As for the main show, that is
expected to kick off quickly between 6pm and 8pm out in the region
from Morris over to Mille Lacs. A slight delay in initiation thanks
to the morning MCS. This is on the nose of an impressive CAPE
gradient, where mlCAPE should be maximized in the 4000-5000 j/kg
range. The highest CAPE values will be capped, but it's just north
of the cap where storms will blow. Once they go, they'll go fast
given the instability. Forecast hodographs do have a clockwise
curve, but they're pretty short, indicative of the modest flow at
best. This high CAPE/low shear environment will favor multi-cell
clusters with occasional supercell structures. At initiation,
we'll have the greatest threat for very large hail and brief
tornadoes, but these will quickly congeal. This will likely
result in one or more forward propagating MCSs that will pose a
primarily wind threat through the rest of the night, but
confidence is low on how any MCSs will evolve.

The uncertainty for Sunday starts right away, besides any remnants
from tonight's MCS(S), we're also seeing several CAMs that show yet
another MCS coming out of SoDak late tonight into Sunday morning.
This MCS would come from the storms we're starting to bubble up in
northeast CO, with that energy heading for southern MN Sunday
morning. How big of a threat this activity will pose to southern MN
will come down to just how robust convection becomes over
western/central SoDak tonight. For the rest of Sunday, we'll see a
very weak and diffuse wind shift work across MN during the
afternoon, with upper 60/lower 70 dewpoints in place. This will
result in a diurnal uptick in storms again Sunday afternoon across
eastern MN, but given the weak flow, the severe threat looks pretty
low for Sunday, with an isolated severe storm possible. The only
thing that could change this idea is if we get robust convection
coming out of SoDak that kicks off an MCV that could serve as a
focus stronger storms over southeast MN and western WI during the
afternoon.

Monday will be pleasant, but we'll have the upper trough currently
over Alberta coming through during peak heating. Cooler temps aloft
will allow for the development of some scattered diurnal showers
Monday afternoon, with the greatest rain chances north of I-94.
Rising heights behind this trough will finally bring as a for sure
dry day on Tuesday.

For Wednesday and beyond, confidence in the forecast diminishes
considerably, with quite a bit of spread still present in the models
with how quickly moisture returns to the upper MS Valley. Looking at
the EPS, it currently favors a trough/frontal passage on Friday,
timed absolutely perfectly for all those afternoon and evening
Fourth of July celebrations you may have planned. No need to cancel
plans yet, but if you do plan on being out and about to celebrate
the Fourth, it would be a good idea to keep an eye on the forecast
in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across central Minnesota
this evening. Expecting a line of storms to eventually move
through the area between 03-09z from northwest to southeast.
MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with these storms. Confidence
was lower further east for KEAU, so have opted to leave out any
overnight precip. Additional showers and storms are possible
tomorrow, mainly for eastern MN/western WI, but have only
included PROB30 for this.

KMSP...Storms are expected between 06-09z. There is a high
amount of uncertainty during the morning hours on whether or not
showers and storms stick around. Another round of showers and
storms are possible during the afternoon, but have only added a
PROB30 to account for this for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc TSRA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...Dye

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
140 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
291845-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
140 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over west central Minnesota
late this afternoon, tracking east and south across the rest of
central and southern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin tonight.
Initially, tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging wind gusts
will be possible, but the greatest severe hazard will transition
to a strong wind threat through the night.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Another round of strong to severe storms possible on Sunday with
the best chance in western Wisconsin. The greatest risk will be
for damaging winds.

More unsettled weather is expected Wednesday through the rest of
next week. Some strong to severe storms will be possible with any
storms that develop. Storms may possibly impact the area during
the late afternoon and evening on the Fourth of July.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this evening and
overnight.