Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
149 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

Low level convergence has remained sufficient enough across
northern portions of our forecast area as surface winds have
tended to remain somewhat backed. This has allowed for convection
along the line in interior southwest into south central Alabama to
continue to produce severe winds and potentially an isolated
tornado.

Further south across far southeast Mississippi and coastal
Alabama, surface winds have tended to veer as the northern part of
the upper shortwave through has raced east and taken on a negative
tilt and broken away from the southern half of the trough. This
has allowed for southern portions of the convective line to become
undercut and slightly elevated behind the cold front. The overall
evolution of this system has become quite complex. Despite the
southern end of the convective line becoming slightly elevated,
these storms will still be capable of producing wind gusts
approaching but likely just below severe limits.

We will continue to monitor trends and provide updates as
necessary. /JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  33  59  39  64  49  60  30 /   0   0   0   0  10  90  70   0
Pensacola   67  38  58  43  62  52  62  35 /  20   0   0   0  10  90  80  10
Destin      70  40  59  45  64  53  64  38 /  50   0   0   0   0  80  90  10
Evergreen   64  31  57  33  63  43  57  27 /  10   0   0   0   0  90  80  10
Waynesboro  59  30  56  34  60  42  53  24 /   0   0   0   0  10  90  50   0
Camden      60  29  53  32  59  41  53  25 /  10   0   0   0   0  90  80  10
Crestview   68  33  59  34  64  45  62  33 /  30   0   0   0   0  90  90  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ630>636-
     650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 9 AM CST Monday
     for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
145 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

ALZ052-053-055-056-059-261>263-MSZ076-078-079-160830-
Clarke AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-Escambia AL-
Washington AL-Mobile Inland AL-Mobile Central AL-Stone MS-Greene MS-
George MS-
145 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MONROE...MOBILE...
NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...WESTERN ESCAMBIA...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE...SOUTHERN CONECUH...GEORGE...SOUTHEASTERN GREENE
AND SOUTHEASTERN STONE COUNTIES THROUGH 230 AM CST...

At 144 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wagarville to 8 miles east of McHenry.
Movement was east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lucedale, Citronelle, Chickasaw, Saraland, Repton, I65 And AL 113,
Wilmer, Uriah, I65 And AL 225, McIntosh, Prichard, Gulfcrest, Excel,
Mount Vernon, Deer Park, Movico, Axis, Tanner Williams, I65 And US
84, and Frisco City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CST for south central
and southwestern Alabama...northwestern Florida...and southeastern
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3146 8798 3143 8683 3079 8794 3079 8796
      3077 8796 3079 8799 3076 8798 3068 8812
      3068 8841 3074 8841 3074 8888 3068 8889
      3068 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 265DEG 56KT 3142 8800 3071 8899

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
209 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

ALZ055-056-059-261>266-FLZ201>204-160915-
Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-Mobile Inland AL-Mobile Coastal AL-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Escambia AL-
Mobile Central AL-Escambia Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Escambia Coastal FL-
209 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MONROE...MOBILE...
BALDWIN...ESCAMBIA...SOUTHERN CONECUH...NORTHWESTERN SANTA ROSA AND
ESCAMBIA COUNTIES THROUGH 315 AM CST...

At 208 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Uriah to 3 miles west of
Satsuma to Gulfport. Movement was southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jay, Grand Bay, Chickasaw, Repton, Point Clear, Uriah, Prichard,
Excel, Ensley, Pollard, Gonzalez, Pace, Foley, I10 And I65, Bay
Minette, Tanner Williams, Frisco City, I65 And I165, Semmes, and
McCullough.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CST for south central
and southwestern Alabama...and northwestern Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 8838 3038 8841 3038 8840 3079 8841
      3090 8818 3116 8789 3114 8787 3117 8788
      3117 8785 3119 8786 3145 8757 3140 8672
      3050 8721 3022 8782
TIME...MOT...LOC 0808Z 294DEG 43KT 3140 8753 3087 8811 3044 8905

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH