Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1218 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

A well defined shortwave is ejecting through the Arklatex as of 05z
and is beginning to take on an increasingly negative tilt as we
progress through the night. Enhanced large scale forcing associated
with the encroaching mid level height falls and increasingly
diffluent flow beneath the right entrance region of an intensifying
mid and upper jet. An intensifying squall line extending from east
central Mississippi southwest into southern Mississippi is
encroaching on a prefrontal convergence band of convection just
ahead of the line. Low level convergence should become maximized at
this time as surface winds ahead of the prefrontal boundary remain
southerly and become abruptly northwesterly behind the squall line.

This should occur as the line enters our southeast Mississippi
counties and a more rapid intensification of the line is expected at
this time. Damaging winds potentially in excess of 70 mph, with
locally up to 80 mph, will be likely with the low level jet now
becoming enhanced with latest VAD profilers from KMOB and KHDC now
between 55-65 kts between 3-6kft. Middle 70s temperatures along with
near 70 dewpoints is also supporting MLCAPE values between 800-
1500j/kg. Latest VWP hodographs from KMOB along with 04z soundings
from KJAN and KLIX confirm 0-1km SRH between 400-550m2/s2. This
overlap of instability and intense shear will also support mainly
line embedded tornadoes, some of which may be strong.

There may also be the potential for a few discrete supercells
immediately in advance of the squall line with a locally enhanced
tornado and wind damage potential. Confidence in this occurrence
is much lower as compared to the high confidence for severe storms
within the squall line itself.

We will continue to provide updates through the night as the line
progresses across the area. /JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  33  59  39  64  49  60  30 /   0   0   0   0  10  90  70   0
Pensacola   67  38  58  43  62  52  62  35 /  20   0   0   0  10  90  80  10
Destin      70  40  59  45  64  53  64  38 /  50   0   0   0   0  80  90  10
Evergreen   64  31  57  33  63  43  57  27 /  10   0   0   0   0  90  80  10
Waynesboro  59  30  56  34  60  42  53  24 /   0   0   0   0  10  90  50   0
Camden      60  29  53  32  59  41  53  25 /  10   0   0   0   0  90  80  10
Crestview   68  33  59  34  64  45  62  33 /  30   0   0   0   0  90  90  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ630>636-
     650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 9 AM CST Monday
     for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

&&

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