Alert archive / Alabama / River Flood Warnings in 2025
River Flood Warning 2, NWS Mobile, AL
NWS Mobile, AL issued this river flood warning at Feb 11, 2025, 9:29 AM CST for Clarke County, Washington County, Alabama. It took effect at Feb 14, 2025, 11:06 PM CST. It was in force for 17 days.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 11, 2025, 9:29 AM CST (15:29 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 14, 2025, 11:06 PM CST
- Expired
- Mar 4, 2025, 9:29 AM CST
- In force
- 17 days
- Issued by
- NWS Mobile, AL
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
Counties Clarke County, AL, Washington County, AL
The radar
The Mobile radar (KMOB), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Tombigbee River near Leroy (LRYA1). The gauge peaked at 27.35 ft at Feb 20, 2025, 1:00 AM CST.
- Action stage
- 19 ft
- Minor stage
- 24 ft
- Moderate stage
- 30 ft
- Major stage
- 35 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02470050, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
505
WGUS44 KMOB 111529
FLWMOB
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mobile AL
929 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
...The National Weather Service in Mobile AL has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers in Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio,
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-121530-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FL.W.0002.250216T1100Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250216T1100Z.250216T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
929 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...From late Saturday night until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, Flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:00 AM CST Tuesday the stage was 5.7 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early Sunday morning and continue rising to 24.2 feet Sunday
morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$
1025 follow-up statements
622
WGUS84 KMOB 120420
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1020 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio,
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-130430-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0002.250216T1100Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250216T1100Z.250217T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1020 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...From late Saturday night until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, Flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:00 PM CST Tuesday the stage was 5.5 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early Sunday morning and continue rising to 24.8 feet Sunday
evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$128
WGUS84 KMOB 121655
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1055 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio,
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-131700-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0002.250215T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T2100Z.250217T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1055 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon until further notice.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:00 AM CST Wednesday the stage was 6.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
Saturday afternoon and continue rising to 26.0 feet Monday
morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$
10107
WGUS84 KMOB 121905
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
105 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio,
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-131915-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0002.250216T0300Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250216T0300Z.250217T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
105 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...From Saturday evening until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, Flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 12:00 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 6.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
late Saturday evening and continue rising to 25.6 feet early
Monday afternoon. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$
10043
WGUS84 KMOB 130117
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
717 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Washington and Clarke
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio,
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-140130-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0002.250216T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250216T0000Z.250218T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
717 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...From Saturday evening until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:00 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 7.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
Saturday evening and continue rising to 26.0 feet Monday
evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$984
WGUS84 KMOB 131637
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1037 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following river in
Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-141645-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0002.250214T2217Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250214T2217Z.250218T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1037 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...From Friday afternoon until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
At 30.0 feet, water approaches roads on west side of Jackson.
Low-lying roads on the west side of the river will begin flooding.
County Road 34 remains open.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:00 AM CST Thursday the stage was 14.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
tomorrow afternoon and continue rising to 26.4 feet early
Tuesday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$844
WGUS84 KMOB 140157
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
757 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio,
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-150200-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0002.250214T2308Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250214T2308Z.250218T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
757 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...From Friday afternoon until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:00 PM CST Thursday the stage was 17.8 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
tomorrow afternoon and continue rising to 26.0 feet Monday
evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$665
WGUS84 KMOB 141619
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1019 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following river in
Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Washington and Clarke
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-151630-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0002.250215T0645Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T0645Z.250218T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1019 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...From late tonight until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
At 30.0 feet, water approaches roads on west side of Jackson.
Low-lying roads on the west side of the river will begin flooding.
County Road 34 remains open.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:00 AM CST Friday the stage was 21.5 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
just after midnight tonight and continue rising to a crest of
26.8 feet early Tuesday morning.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$494
WGUS84 KMOB 150235
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
835 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio,
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-160245-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0002.250215T0506Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T0506Z.250218T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
835 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...From this evening until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:00 PM CST Friday the stage was 23.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
late this evening and continue rising to a crest of 26.7 feet
Monday evening.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$095
WGUS84 KMOB 151746
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1146 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-161800-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250218T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1146 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
At 30.0 feet, water approaches roads on west side of Jackson.
Low-lying roads on the west side of the river will begin flooding.
County Road 34 remains open.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:00 AM CST Saturday the stage was 24.2 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 11:00 AM CST Saturday was 24.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 26.8
feet Monday evening.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$838
WGUS84 KMOB 160107
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
707 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Washington and Clarke
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio,
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-170115-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250218T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
707 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 6:00 PM CST Saturday the stage was 24.6 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 26.5
feet Monday evening.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$766
WGUS84 KMOB 160245
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
845 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Washington and Clarke
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio,
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-170245-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250218T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
845 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:00 PM CST Saturday the stage was 24.7 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 26.5
feet Monday evening.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$032
WGUS84 KMOB 161505
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
905 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-171515-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250218T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
905 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
At 30.0 feet, water approaches roads on west side of Jackson.
Low-lying roads on the west side of the river will begin flooding.
County Road 34 remains open.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:00 AM CST Sunday the stage was 25.4 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 8:00 AM CST Sunday was 25.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 26.6
feet tomorrow evening.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$401
WGUS84 KMOB 170149
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
749 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Washington and Clarke
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio,
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-180200-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250219T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
749 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
At 30.0 feet, water approaches roads on west side of Jackson.
Low-lying roads on the west side of the river will begin flooding.
County Road 34 remains open.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:00 PM CST Sunday the stage was 25.8 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 26.6
feet Wednesday morning.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$097
WGUS84 KMOB 171539
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
939 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-181545-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250220T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
939 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
At 30.0 feet, water approaches roads on west side of Jackson.
Low-lying roads on the west side of the river will begin flooding.
County Road 34 remains open.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:00 AM CST Monday the stage was 26.2 feet.
- Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
ending at 9:00 AM CST Monday was 26.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 26.8
feet Thursday morning.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$426
WGUS84 KMOB 180031
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
631 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio,
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-190045-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250218T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
631 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
At 30.0 feet, water approaches roads on west side of Jackson.
Low-lying roads on the west side of the river will begin flooding.
County Road 34 remains open.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 6:00 PM CST Monday the stage was 26.5 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 26.6
feet just after midnight tonight.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$958
WGUS84 KMOB 181529
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
929 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio,
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-191530-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250223T0600Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250219T0600Z.250223T0000Z.NO/
929 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until early Sunday morning.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:00 AM CST Tuesday the stage was 26.9 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 27.4
feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below
flood stage Saturday evening.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$511
WGUS84 KMOB 190153
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
753 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio,
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-200200-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250223T0600Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250219T0600Z.250223T0000Z.NO/
753 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until early Sunday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
At 30.0 feet, water approaches roads on west side of Jackson.
Low-lying roads on the west side of the river will begin flooding.
County Road 34 remains open.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:00 PM CST Tuesday the stage was 27.1 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 27.2
feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below
flood stage Saturday evening.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$253
WGUS84 KMOB 191506
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
906 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.
&&
ALC025-129-201515-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250223T1715Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250220T0000Z.250223T1115Z.NO/
906 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until late Sunday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:00 AM CST Wednesday the stage was 27.3 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 27.4
feet this evening. It will then fall below flood stage early
Sunday morning.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$476
WGUS84 KMOB 200128
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
728 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Washington and Clarke
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-210130-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250223T1848Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250219T2315Z.250223T1248Z.NO/
728 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until early Sunday afternoon.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:00 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 27.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 27.4
feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below
flood stage Sunday morning.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$975
WGUS84 KMOB 201551
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
951 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.
&&
ALC025-129-211600-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250223T1930Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250220T0445Z.250223T1330Z.NO/
951 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until early Sunday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:00 AM CST Thursday the stage was 27.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
Sunday morning and continue falling to 17.0 feet Tuesday
morning.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$575
WGUS84 KMOB 210127
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
727 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Washington and Clarke
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-220130-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250223T1700Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250220T0445Z.250223T1100Z.NO/
727 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until late Sunday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 7:00 PM CST Thursday the stage was 27.2 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
early Sunday morning and continue falling to 14.9 feet
Tuesday evening.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$156
WGUS84 KMOB 211522
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
922 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-221530-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250223T1323Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250220T0445Z.250223T0723Z.NO/
922 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until Sunday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:00 AM CST Friday the stage was 26.8 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
early Sunday morning and continue falling to 13.5 feet
Wednesday morning.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$342
WGUS84 KMOB 220333
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
933 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in
Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Washington and Clarke
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-230345-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250223T1424Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250220T0445Z.250223T0824Z.NO/
933 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until Sunday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 9:00 PM CST Friday the stage was 26.4 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
early Sunday morning and continue falling to 11.7 feet
Wednesday evening.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$095
WGUS84 KMOB 221615
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1015 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Washington and Clarke
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-231400-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250223T1400Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250220T0445Z.250223T0800Z.NO/
1015 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, Flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:00 AM CST Saturday the stage was 25.5 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 25.5
feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage just
after midnight tonight.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$086
WGUS84 KMOB 230540
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1140 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington
Counties.
For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool,
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.
The next statement will be issued when updates occur.
&&
ALC025-129-231200-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250223T1200Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.250215T1430Z.250220T0445Z.250223T0600Z.NO/
1140 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.
* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.
* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.
* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, Flooding of low lying farm and
pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to
higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of
river.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:00 PM CST Saturday the stage was 24.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 24.0
feet just after midnight tonight.
- Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
&&
LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
3114 8802 3149 8793
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 11, 6:02 AM CST, 3 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 11, 6:02 AM CST, 3 hours 27 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
602 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
IFR conditions will gradually give way to MVFR ceilings this
morning as scattered showers develop across the area. These
showers are not expected to impact aviation as MVFR ceilings
continue throughout the day. Winds have turned southerly and will
remain southerly throughout the forecast. Ceilings will once
again drop tonight to IFR to LIFR area wide. BB-8 &&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 437 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
The next 48 hours are looking to be on the active side as the
chance for strong to severe storms looks possible Wednesday into
Wednesday night. A HIGH risk of rip currents will also begin
Wednesday and persist through the week.
Synopsis...Deep layer moisture has already begun to surge
northward across our area this morning as deep southwesterly flow
aloft slowly overspreads from west to east. This is all in
response to a rather broad longwave upper trough digging into the
southwestern US. Several shortwaves are expected to progress
through the flow starting today with the strongest one pushing
through Wednesday into Wednesday night. At the surface, a stalled
frontal boundary extending across the northern Gulf will steadily
begin to advance northward as a warm front today likely
approaching just north of our area by Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Deep overrunning flow will allow for showers and
storms to develop north of this boundary throughout the day today
and into tonight. The best rain chances will start closer to the
coast this morning and gradually move northward this morning
throughout the day. Activity will likely peak this evening as the
first upper shortwave zips quickly by. South of the advancing
boundary, low level flow will allow for rich Gulf moisture to
surge northward leading to scattered warm advection showers to
develop. Interestingly enough, forecast soundings depict a rather
unstable zone under roughly 600 mb but heavily capped above that.
This would likely support rather shallow convective cells
underneath the cap. Shallow doesn't mean they can't bite just
might fall under what we call "power showers" with no lightning.
More on that in the severe section below.
A brief respite will likely occur tonight as we fall inbetween
shortwaves and weak shortwave riding builds in. This break will
only be temporary as the next two waves move in on Wednesday. The
first shortwave likely moves through during the mid-morning
through early afternoon. This will likely kickoff another round
of storms along the stalled warmfront mainly along and north of
highway 84 with more scattered warm advection showers further
south. This round could possibly pose the first of two main
threats for severe weather with the second coming overnight as the
more potent and final shortwave pushes through. Storms will fire
along and in front of a slowly advancing during the evening
hours and push eastward overnight. Storms will likely weaken as
they move east with the loss of diurnal heating and the upper
trough quickly lifting out of the area leading to decreasing upper
support. Nonetheless, wednesday night appears to be the best
period for rain across the entire area as the front sweeps across.
Severe storms...Alright now for the part everyone is wondering
about. To be honest this is a rather subtle severe threat with
a lot of moving parts going on. Certainly not a slam dunk event
where confidence and ceiling is high, but more of a tricky setup
that could be entirely nothing or rather active couple of rounds
and the differences between the two potentials is small. So lets
get to it.
Lets start with this afternoon and early evening. Most of you are
probably thinking; what are you talking about we do not have a
risk for today. You would be correct; however, I would be lying if
some things didn't catch my eye for this afternoon that was worth
mentioning. Looking at area soundings from various convective
allowing models and global guidance (GFS/ECMWF) a rather peculiar
low level profile kept showing up. This profile is a rather
unstable low levels under a stout mid level capping inversion
(warmer layer). Typically that inversion would be too much and
squash the convection acting like a lid on a boiling pot. However,
the boundary layer is rather deep and moist with fairly steep low
level lapse rates around 7.5 degrees C/km. This environment
coupled with curved low level wind profiles, especially in the
vicinity of a lifting warmfront, tend to be the stomping grounds
of a Gulf Coast special, the mini-spinny or "power shower". These
tend to be small rotating showers that may or may not have
lightning that can be absolute pests for a forecaster and radar
operator. They tend to be small enough that even model grid
spacing has a tough time resolving them. While I do not really
expect much in the way of anything this afternoon; this
environment has snuck up on us before and to be honest given the
history would not be entirely shocked if we see a few rotating
"showers" this afternoon and evening. Heck there is probably a
non-zero (albeit low) chance that a Gulf coast "accident" tornado
cannot be ruled out. The best environment for these buggers looks
to be across the highway 84 corridor in the vicinity of the weak
surface boundary sometime late this afternoon and into the
evening. This looks to be supported by recent machine learning
guidance with low but non-zero probabilities across areas like
Wayne County MS east towards Wilcox county Alabama. The reason we
have no outlook is that overall uncertainty, coverage and just
odd nature of these setups really work against overall severe
weather and just not a high enough probability or threat to
require a categorical risk area.
Now lets move on to the more substantial risks on Wednesday. We
are probably looking at two separate waves to occur on Wednesday.
The first will be mainly across that same highway 84 corridor
during the mid morning into the early afternoon. This will likely
be along that stalled warm frontal zone extending just south of
the I-20 corridor. North of the boundary; elevated storms will
likely be ongoing with the potential for some small hail given
marginal mid-level lapse rates, weak storm relative inflow and
strong deep layer flow. Would not be shocked to get a couple hail
reports Wednesday morning mainly north of highway 84. With time
this area will destabilize as the front moves north and daytime
heating allows for more surface based instability to build. While
not overly impressive, there could be enough instability to
support some organized surface based convection to move along that
warm front. Some of the convective allowing models show a
organized linear segment progressing across this zone around
midday. Kinematics will be supportive of both damaging winds and a
tornado or two. However, the question comes will that convection
be focused north or south of the boundary. IF it is north of the
boundary it'll likely remain elevated leading to a diminished
severe risk. South of the boundary in the more unstable air would
support the hazards mentioned above as this moves across the area.
Its all gonna matter on timing and where with respect with the
boundary does this convection organize. As mentioned above, very
minor changes could change the outcome and potential threats.
After this round there will be a brief break during the afternoon
as the final wave moves in later in the evening and overnight on
Wednesday. This will likely be the more impressive round; however,
not everything is lining up with this round making it a tricky
forecast. The first fly in the ointment will be what the heck
happens to the boundary after the earlier wave of convection. If
the first midday round of storms is able to push the boundary
south cutting into what instability we have; then the severe risk
may be severely hampered as the further south we get the more
removed from the better forcing likely resulting in a lazy line of
storms with a lot of bark but no bite. Now if that first wave has
little impact on the boundary and or tightens the boundary zone
without impacting the open warm sector then things could get spicy
mainly across the current slight risk area, especially around
that favorite highway 84 corridor. I know by this point they are
probably getting tired of being mentioned. Kinematics look to be
rather potent with rather large curved hodographs and any storms
that form ahead of the approaching front. While rather conditional
on if these storms can take advantage of the environment, analog
guidance and machine learning guidance is rather aggressive
across southeastern Mississippi and into interior south western
Alabama. This is likely highlighting the ceiling for this event in
that a period of damaging winds a couple of tornadoes cannot be
ruled out. We will have to just monitor how each of the moving
pieces play out over the next 24 hours to see if that ceiling is
achievable. The ole deep south rule of thumb is never trust a warm
front so we will have to watch this one closely. Along the front,
storms may struggle as boundary parallel shear will support
undercutting which will reduce the severe risk unless storms can
organize into a more substantial QLCS. Further east, synoptic
support will likely lift out of the area and the threat should
drop off as we approach the I-65 corridor and points east. While a
damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out; the overall threat will
likely diminish to a short period of heavy rain. BB-8
LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 437 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
Upper-level longwave troughing over the eastern half of the US at
the start of the period is expected to lift northeastward,
exiting into the western Atlantic by Friday night. Behind it,
another longwave trough moves into the southwest US and quickly
crosses the CONUS through the weekend. For the local area, these
two troughs will likely keep a persistent southwesterly flow
pattern aloft. At the surface, the cold front that began moving
through the local area during the near term will clear the area
and stall over the northern Gulf on Thursday. High pressure to our
north allows for rain chances to quickly decrease throughout the
day on Thursday as cooler and drier air filters in. This reprieve
from the active pattern is only temporary as the stalled front is
expected to lift to the north as a warm front by Friday night. As
the second upper trough approaches the area, another stronger cold
front is expected to approach and sweep through the local area
sometime late Saturday into Sunday.
Although we are still 5 days out, the signal for severe weather
continues to increase for the Saturday afternoon into Saturday night
timeframe. Guidance continues to suggest broad diffluence aloft and
strong deep layer shear across the Deep South as the upper trough
ejects northeastward. Deterministic and ensemble mean guidance also
suggest a rather potent LLJ developing underneath the diffluent flow
aloft and spreading across Alabama and Mississippi. As far as
instability, what stands out to me is that the latest deterministic
global models are already suggesting CAPE values in excess of 1000
J/kg in some areas. This is rather impressive given the typical cool
season low-end bias that global models tend to have with instability
this far out (in addition to an evening/overnight timing). Looking
at GFS ensembles, probabilities of CAPE values greater than 500 J/kg
have almost doubled when comparing model runs initialized on Feb 9th
to runs on the 10th. Therefore, while instability is typically is a
limiting/questionable factor this time of year, we may instead be
leaning towards a solution where the thermodynamic environment is
actually rather supportive of robust updrafts. Lastly, overall large
scale forcing from the system has also become more prominent.
Ensembles over the past couple days have trended towards a deeper
upper trough and the latest deterministic models are starting to
suggest that the trough may take on a more neutral to possibly
negative tilt prior to ejecting northeast. Putting all of this
together and seeing a sharp increase in probabilities from the CSU-
MLP, we are becoming increasingly confident and concerned that an
impactful severe weather event will occur across the Deep South
Saturday into Saturday night. At this time, there are still some
questions regarding timing and where the ingredients best line up
for the greatest potential. The signal from the CIPS Analogs
currently covers a very broad area across the southeast US. As we
get closer to the event and monitor trends, we will be able to
refine the forecast more to see how this storm system will
ultimately impact our local area. /96
MARINE...
Issued at 437 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
A light onshore flow should gradually strengthen to a
moderate to strong onshore flow by mid week as the warm front
lifts inland and dissipates. A cold front moves east across the
marine area Wednesday night into Thursday, once again bringing
moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow to the coastal
waters into Friday. Moderate onshore flow returns going into the
weekend. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed Wednesday afternoon
through the end of the week. BB-8
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 76 65 78 59 70 45 66 58 / 60 50 80 90 40 20 20 30
Pensacola 73 66 77 64 73 49 67 60 / 60 40 60 90 60 20 20 30
Destin 73 66 75 65 73 51 67 61 / 40 40 60 90 80 20 20 30
Evergreen 76 62 79 60 71 42 69 54 / 60 70 80 100 40 10 10 40
Waynesboro 77 59 79 51 65 39 65 53 / 70 80 100 90 10 10 10 40
Camden 75 59 79 53 66 39 66 53 / 70 80 90 100 30 10 10 40
Crestview 76 64 79 64 74 46 69 54 / 40 50 60 90 70 20 20 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through late
Thursday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through late
Thursday night for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mobThe office that day
Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 3:08 AM CST | Rip Current Statement | MOB | Baldwin, Mobile | 3 days |
| Feb 11, 9:28 AM CST | River Flood Warning | MOB | Choctaw, Clarke, Washington | 21 days |
| Feb 11, 1:43 PM CST | Small Craft Advisory | MOB | 70 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Alabama, 2025Every river flood warning in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.