River Flood Warning 1, NWS Mobile, AL

328 
WGUS84 KMOB 120418
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1018 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw, Clarke 
  and Washington Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio, 
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-130430-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0001.250216T0400Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250216T0400Z.250217T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1018 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL 
FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 PM CST Tuesday the stage was 7.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late Saturday evening and continue rising to 30.9 feet Sunday
    evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

864 
WGUS84 KMOB 121654
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1054 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw, 
  Washington and Clarke Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio, 
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-131700-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.250215T1612Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250215T1612Z.250217T1200Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1054 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning until further notice.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:30 AM CST Wednesday the stage was 8.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late Saturday morning and continue rising to 32.2 feet Monday
    morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

10

184 
WGUS84 KMOB 121904
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
104 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw, 
  Washington and Clarke Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio, 
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-131915-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.250216T0430Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250216T0430Z.250217T1800Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
104 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening until further notice.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:30 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 8.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late Saturday evening and continue rising to 31.0 feet early
    Monday afternoon. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

10

425 
WGUS84 KMOB 130116
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
716 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Washington, Clarke 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio, 
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-140130-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0001.250216T0430Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250216T0430Z.250218T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
716 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL 
FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening until further notice.

* IMPACTS...at 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:30 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 10.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late Saturday evening and continue rising to 32.0 feet Monday
    evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

377 
WGUS84 KMOB 131636
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1036 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following river in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Washington, Clarke 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-141645-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.250215T1720Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250215T1720Z.250218T1200Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1036 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.
  At 40.0 feet, widespread flooding of timber and pastureland. 
  Portions of State Highway 114 east of the river becomes covered by 
  water. Cabins on Old Ferry Road flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 AM CST Thursday the stage was 20.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late Saturday morning and continue rising to 32.3 feet
    Tuesday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

641 
WGUS84 KMOB 140155
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
755 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw, Clarke 
  and Washington Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio, 
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-150200-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.250215T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250215T1200Z.250218T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
755 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM CST Thursday the stage was 23.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    Saturday morning and continue rising to a crest of 32.3 feet
    Monday evening.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

169 
WGUS84 KMOB 141617
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1017 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following river in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Washington, Clarke 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-151630-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.250214T2024Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2024Z.250217T1800Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1017 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...From this afternoon until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.
  At 40.0 feet, widespread flooding of timber and pastureland. 
  Portions of State Highway 114 east of the river becomes covered by 
  water. Cabins on Old Ferry Road flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 AM CST Friday the stage was 28.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this afternoon and continue rising to a crest of 34.0 feet
    early Monday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

156 
WGUS84 KMOB 150234
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
834 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw, Clarke 
  and Washington Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio, 
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-160245-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250218T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
834 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM CST Friday the stage was 29.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to 33.6 feet Monday
    evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

016 
WGUS84 KMOB 151745
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1145 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-161745-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250217T1200Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1145 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.
  At 40.0 feet, widespread flooding of timber and pastureland. 
  Portions of State Highway 114 east of the river becomes covered by 
  water. Cabins on Old Ferry Road flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:30 AM CST Saturday the stage was 30.8 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:30 AM CST Saturday was 30.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 34.1
    feet Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

935 
WGUS84 KMOB 160105
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
705 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw, 
  Washington and Clarke Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio, 
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-170115-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250217T0600Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
705 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:30 PM CST Saturday the stage was 31.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 33.6
    feet early Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

866 
WGUS84 KMOB 160244
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
844 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw, 
  Washington and Clarke Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio, 
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-170245-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250217T0600Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
844 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 PM CST Saturday the stage was 31.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 33.6
    feet early Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

278 
WGUS84 KMOB 161504
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
904 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Choctaw 
  and Washington Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-171515-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250218T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
904 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.
  At 40.0 feet, widespread flooding of timber and pastureland. 
  Portions of State Highway 114 east of the river becomes covered by 
  water. Cabins on Old Ferry Road flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 AM CST Sunday the stage was 32.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:30 AM CST Sunday was 32.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 33.8
    feet tomorrow evening.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

264 
WGUS84 KMOB 170147
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
747 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Washington, Clarke 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio, 
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-180200-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250218T1800Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
747 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.
  At 40.0 feet, widespread flooding of timber and pastureland. 
  Portions of State Highway 114 east of the river becomes covered by 
  water. Cabins on Old Ferry Road flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM CST Sunday the stage was 32.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 33.2
    feet early Tuesday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

108 
WGUS84 KMOB 171537
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
937 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Choctaw 
  and Washington Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-181545-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250220T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
937 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.
  At 40.0 feet, widespread flooding of timber and pastureland. 
  Portions of State Highway 114 east of the river becomes covered by 
  water. Cabins on Old Ferry Road flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 AM CST Monday the stage was 33.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:30 AM CST Monday was 33.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will fall to 33.1 feet this afternoon.
    It will then rise to 33.3 feet tomorrow evening. It will fall
    to 33.2 feet early Wednesday morning. It will then rise to
    33.5 feet early Thursday morning. It will fall again but
    remain above flood stage.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

629 
WGUS84 KMOB 180030
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
630 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio, 
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-190030-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250223T0224Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250217T2315Z.250222T2024Z.UU/
630 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.
  At 40.0 feet, widespread flooding of timber and pastureland. 
  Portions of State Highway 114 east of the river becomes covered by 
  water. Cabins on Old Ferry Road flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:30 PM CST Monday the stage was 33.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    early Saturday afternoon and continue falling to 28.7 feet
    Saturday evening.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

389 
WGUS84 KMOB 181528
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
928 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Choctaw 
  and Washington Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio, 
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-191530-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250222T1640Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250219T1200Z.250222T1040Z.UU/
928 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until late Saturday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 AM CST Tuesday the stage was 33.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 34.2
    feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    early Saturday morning.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

711 
WGUS84 KMOB 190145
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
745 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Choctaw 
  and Washington Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local radio, 
television, or NOAA Weather Radio for further information.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-200145-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250222T1800Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250219T0000Z.250222T1200Z.UU/
745 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until early Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.
  At 40.0 feet, widespread flooding of timber and pastureland. 
  Portions of State Highway 114 east of the river becomes covered by 
  water. Cabins on Old Ferry Road flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:30 PM CST Tuesday the stage was 34.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 34.1
    feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below
    flood stage Saturday morning.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

566 
WGUS84 KMOB 191504
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
904 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Choctaw 
  and Washington Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.




&&

ALC023-025-129-201515-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250223T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250219T1430Z.250222T1800Z.UU/
904 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 AM CST Wednesday the stage was 34.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    early Saturday afternoon and continue falling to 20.3 feet
    Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

249 
WGUS84 KMOB 200125
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
725 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw, 
  Washington and Clarke Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-210130-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250223T0025Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250219T2315Z.250222T1825Z.UU/
725 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until Saturday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:30 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 34.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    early Saturday afternoon and continue falling to 18.9 feet
    Monday evening.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

940 
WGUS84 KMOB 201550
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
950 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.




&&

ALC023-025-129-211600-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250223T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250219T2315Z.250222T1800Z.UU/
950 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 AM CST Thursday the stage was 34.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    early Saturday afternoon and continue falling to 18.4 feet
    Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

813 
WGUS84 KMOB 210125
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
725 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-220130-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250222T2040Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250219T2315Z.250222T1440Z.UU/
725 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until early Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:30 PM CST Thursday the stage was 33.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    Saturday morning and continue falling to 16.6 feet Tuesday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

897 
WGUS84 KMOB 211521
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
921 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-221530-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250222T1900Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250219T2315Z.250222T1300Z.UU/
921 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until early tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 AM CST Friday the stage was 32.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    tomorrow morning and continue falling to 15.8 feet Wednesday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

649 
WGUS84 KMOB 220332
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
932 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Washington, 
  Choctaw and Clarke Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-230345-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250223T0409Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250219T2315Z.250222T2209Z.UU/
932 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 PM CST Friday the stage was 31.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    tomorrow afternoon and continue falling to 15.7 feet
    Wednesday evening.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

469 
WGUS84 KMOB 221614
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1014 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Washington, Clarke 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam - Pool, 
Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-230300-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250223T0300Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.250214T2136Z.250219T2315Z.250222T2100Z.UU/
1014 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until late this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 AM CST Saturday the stage was 29.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late this afternoon and continue falling to 14.3 feet
    Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
602 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

IFR conditions will gradually give way to MVFR ceilings this
morning as scattered showers develop across the area. These
showers are not expected to impact aviation as MVFR ceilings
continue throughout the day. Winds have turned southerly and will
remain southerly throughout the forecast. Ceilings will once
again drop tonight to IFR to LIFR area wide. BB-8 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 437 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

The next 48 hours are looking to be on the active side as the
chance for strong to severe storms looks possible Wednesday into
Wednesday night. A HIGH risk of rip currents will also begin
Wednesday and persist through the week.

Synopsis...Deep layer moisture has already begun to surge
northward across our area this morning as deep southwesterly flow
aloft slowly overspreads from west to east. This is all in
response to a rather broad longwave upper trough digging into the
southwestern US. Several shortwaves are expected to progress
through the flow starting today with the strongest one pushing
through Wednesday into Wednesday night. At the surface, a stalled
frontal boundary extending across the northern Gulf will steadily
begin to advance northward as a warm front today likely
approaching just north of our area by Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Deep overrunning flow will allow for showers and
storms to develop north of this boundary throughout the day today
and into tonight. The best rain chances will start closer to the
coast this morning and gradually move northward this morning
throughout the day. Activity will likely peak this evening as the
first upper shortwave zips quickly by. South of the advancing
boundary, low level flow will allow for rich Gulf moisture to
surge northward leading to scattered warm advection showers to
develop. Interestingly enough, forecast soundings depict a rather
unstable zone under roughly 600 mb but heavily capped above that.
This would likely support rather shallow convective cells
underneath the cap. Shallow doesn't mean they can't bite just
might fall under what we call "power showers" with no lightning.
More on that in the severe section below.

A brief respite will likely occur tonight as we fall inbetween
shortwaves and weak shortwave riding builds in. This break will
only be temporary as the next two waves move in on Wednesday. The
first shortwave likely moves through during the mid-morning
through early afternoon. This will likely kickoff another round
of storms along the stalled warmfront mainly along and north of
highway 84 with more scattered warm advection showers further
south. This round could possibly pose the first of two main
threats for severe weather with the second coming overnight as the
more potent and final shortwave pushes through. Storms will fire
along and in front of a slowly advancing  during the evening
hours and push eastward overnight. Storms will likely weaken as
they move east with the loss of diurnal heating and the upper
trough quickly lifting out of the area leading to decreasing upper
support. Nonetheless, wednesday night appears to be the best
period for rain across the entire area as the front sweeps across.

Severe storms...Alright now for the part everyone is wondering
about. To be honest this is a rather subtle severe threat with
a lot of moving parts going on. Certainly not a slam dunk event
where confidence and ceiling is high, but more of a tricky setup
that could be entirely nothing or rather active couple of rounds
and the differences between the two potentials is small. So lets
get to it.

Lets start with this afternoon and early evening. Most of you are
probably thinking; what are you talking about we do not have a
risk for today. You would be correct; however, I would be lying if
some things didn't catch my eye for this afternoon that was worth
mentioning. Looking at area soundings from various convective
allowing models and global guidance (GFS/ECMWF) a rather peculiar
low level profile kept showing up. This profile is a rather
unstable low levels under a stout mid level capping inversion
(warmer layer). Typically that inversion would be too much and
squash the convection acting like a lid on a boiling pot. However,
the boundary layer is rather deep and moist with fairly steep low
level lapse rates around 7.5 degrees C/km. This environment
coupled with curved low level wind profiles, especially in the
vicinity of a lifting warmfront, tend to be the stomping grounds
of a Gulf Coast special, the mini-spinny or "power shower". These
tend to be small rotating showers that may or may not have
lightning that can be absolute pests for a forecaster and radar
operator. They tend to be small enough that even model grid
spacing has a tough time resolving them. While I do not really
expect much in the way of anything this afternoon; this
environment has snuck up on us before and to be honest given the
history would not be entirely shocked if we see a few rotating
"showers" this afternoon and evening. Heck there is probably a
non-zero (albeit low) chance that a Gulf coast "accident" tornado
cannot be ruled out. The best environment for these buggers looks
to be across the highway 84 corridor in the vicinity of the weak
surface boundary sometime late this afternoon and into the
evening. This looks to be supported by recent machine learning
guidance with low but non-zero probabilities across areas like
Wayne County MS east towards Wilcox county Alabama. The reason we
have no outlook is that overall uncertainty, coverage and just
odd nature of these setups really work against overall severe
weather and just not a high enough probability or threat to
require a categorical risk area.

Now lets move on to the more substantial risks on Wednesday. We
are probably looking at two separate waves to occur on Wednesday.
The first will be mainly across that same highway 84 corridor
during the mid morning into the early afternoon. This will likely
be along that stalled warm frontal zone extending just south of
the I-20 corridor. North of the boundary; elevated storms will
likely be ongoing with the potential for some small hail given
marginal mid-level lapse rates, weak storm relative inflow and
strong deep layer flow. Would not be shocked to get a couple hail
reports Wednesday morning mainly north of highway 84. With time
this area will destabilize as the front moves north and daytime
heating allows for more surface based instability to build. While
not overly impressive, there could be enough instability to
support some organized surface based convection to move along that
warm front. Some of the convective allowing models show a
organized linear segment progressing across this zone around
midday. Kinematics will be supportive of both damaging winds and a
tornado or two. However, the question comes will that convection
be focused north or south of the boundary. IF it is north of the
boundary it'll likely remain elevated leading to a diminished
severe risk. South of the boundary in the more unstable air would
support the hazards mentioned above as this moves across the area.
Its all gonna matter on timing and where with respect with the
boundary does this convection organize. As mentioned above, very
minor changes could change the outcome and potential threats.

After this round there will be a brief break during the afternoon
as the final wave moves in later in the evening and overnight on
Wednesday. This will likely be the more impressive round; however,
not everything is lining up with this round making it a tricky
forecast. The first fly in the ointment will be what the heck
happens to the boundary after the earlier wave of convection. If
the first midday round of storms is able to push the boundary
south cutting into what instability we have; then the severe risk
may be severely hampered as the further south we get the more
removed from the better forcing likely resulting in a lazy line of
storms with a lot of bark but no bite. Now if that first wave has
little impact on the boundary and or tightens the boundary zone
without impacting the open warm sector then things could get spicy
mainly across the current slight risk area, especially around
that favorite highway 84 corridor. I know by this point they are
probably getting tired of being mentioned. Kinematics look to be
rather potent with rather large curved hodographs and any storms
that form ahead of the approaching front. While rather conditional
on if these storms can take advantage of the environment, analog
guidance and machine learning guidance is rather aggressive
across southeastern Mississippi and into interior south western
Alabama. This is likely highlighting the ceiling for this event in
that a period of damaging winds a couple of tornadoes cannot be
ruled out. We will have to just monitor how each of the moving
pieces play out over the next 24 hours to see if that ceiling is
achievable. The ole deep south rule of thumb is never trust a warm
front so we will have to watch this one closely. Along the front,
storms may struggle as boundary parallel shear will support
undercutting which will reduce the severe risk unless storms can
organize into a more substantial QLCS. Further east, synoptic
support will likely lift out of the area and the threat should
drop off as we approach the I-65 corridor and points east. While a
damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out; the overall threat will
likely diminish to a short period of heavy rain. BB-8

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 437 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

Upper-level longwave troughing over the eastern half of the US at
the start of the period is expected to lift northeastward,
exiting into the western Atlantic by Friday night. Behind it,
another longwave trough moves into the southwest US and quickly
crosses the CONUS through the weekend. For the local area, these
two troughs will likely keep a persistent southwesterly flow
pattern aloft. At the surface, the cold front that began moving
through the local area during the near term will clear the area
and stall over the northern Gulf on Thursday. High pressure to our
north allows for rain chances to quickly decrease throughout the
day on Thursday as cooler and drier air filters in. This reprieve
from the active pattern is only temporary as the stalled front is
expected to lift to the north as a warm front by Friday night. As
the second upper trough approaches the area, another stronger cold
front is expected to approach and sweep through the local area
sometime late Saturday into Sunday.

Although we are still 5 days out, the signal for severe weather
continues to increase for the Saturday afternoon into Saturday night
timeframe. Guidance continues to suggest broad diffluence aloft and
strong deep layer shear across the Deep South as the upper trough
ejects northeastward. Deterministic and ensemble mean guidance also
suggest a rather potent LLJ developing underneath the diffluent flow
aloft and spreading across Alabama and Mississippi. As far as
instability, what stands out to me is that the latest deterministic
global models are already suggesting CAPE values in excess of 1000
J/kg in some areas. This is rather impressive given the typical cool
season low-end bias that global models tend to have with instability
this far out (in addition to an evening/overnight timing). Looking
at GFS ensembles, probabilities of CAPE values greater than 500 J/kg
have almost doubled when comparing model runs initialized on Feb 9th
to runs on the 10th. Therefore, while instability is typically is a
limiting/questionable factor this time of year, we may instead be
leaning towards a solution where the thermodynamic environment is
actually rather supportive of robust updrafts. Lastly, overall large
scale forcing from the system has also become more prominent.
Ensembles over the past couple days have trended towards a deeper
upper trough and the latest deterministic models are starting to
suggest that the trough may take on a more neutral to possibly
negative tilt prior to ejecting northeast. Putting all of this
together and seeing a sharp increase in probabilities from the CSU-
MLP, we are becoming increasingly confident and concerned that an
impactful severe weather event will occur across the Deep South
Saturday into Saturday night. At this time, there are still some
questions regarding timing and where the ingredients best line up
for the greatest potential. The signal from the CIPS Analogs
currently covers a very broad area across the southeast US. As we
get closer to the event and monitor trends, we will be able to
refine the forecast more to see how this storm system will
ultimately impact our local area. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 437 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

A light onshore flow should gradually strengthen to a
moderate to strong onshore flow by mid week as the warm front
lifts inland and dissipates. A cold front moves east across the
marine area Wednesday night into Thursday, once again bringing
moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow to the coastal
waters into Friday. Moderate onshore flow returns going into the
weekend. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed Wednesday afternoon
through the end of the week. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  65  78  59  70  45  66  58 /  60  50  80  90  40  20  20  30
Pensacola   73  66  77  64  73  49  67  60 /  60  40  60  90  60  20  20  30
Destin      73  66  75  65  73  51  67  61 /  40  40  60  90  80  20  20  30
Evergreen   76  62  79  60  71  42  69  54 /  60  70  80 100  40  10  10  40
Waynesboro  77  59  79  51  65  39  65  53 /  70  80 100  90  10  10  10  40
Camden      75  59  79  53  66  39  66  53 /  70  80  90 100  30  10  10  40
Crestview   76  64  79  64  74  46  69  54 /  40  50  60  90  70  20  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through late
     Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through late
     Thursday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob