Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1223 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be likely across
portions of southeast Florida this afternoon as a cold front and mid-
level shortwave move across the region. Satellite imagery already
shows the boundary sitting over our area as we remain in the warm
sector, while activity has been firing all morning across east
central Florida.

MFL's 12Z sounding and MIA ACARS data already show favorable
parameters for strong, damaging winds and small hail, especially
given stout SBCAPE, MUCAPE and DCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range, mid- level lapse rates > 6 C/kg, mid-level temperatures <
-10C, and the freezing level sitting just below 13000 ft. PWATs are
also climbing, with sounding readings of 1.1 inches. Most high-res
models have activity increasing after 3PM and lasting through the
evening hours, with the earlier activity concentrated over areas
south of Alligator Area, then propagating northward through the
evening.

There will also be a low-end threat of flooding rain with this event
across the East Coast metro areas given the potential for showers
and storms to become pinned by the Atlantic sea-breeze. There's
medium-to-high confidence that we could get least half an inch with
some of these showers, but HREF LPMM shows some isolated areas
having up to 3-4 inches of rain if convection gets pinned for a
prolonged period of time.

Shower activity will gradually decrease overnight as the front
and shortwave exit the region, but a few isolated showers could
pop up between nightfall and midnight. Lingering moisture will
provide for a second round of showers Wednesday as daytime heating
peaks in the early afternoon hours. POP grids will keep 20-30
percent coverage, highest towards areas south of I-75 where the
best moisture pool is shown on models.

Temperatures today will again reach the mid to 80s as southerly flow
persists. Evening lows will also remain on the warmer side with low
to mid 60s inland, and upper 60s to around 70 near the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Moving into Wednesday night, any lingering light showers will make
their exit into the waters. A large body of surface high pressure
will build in over the southeastern CONUS, with upper-level ridging,
to bring the return of a drier air mass and near seasonal
temperatures to wrap up the week. The trough's exit will allow for
northeasterly air flow to cool afternoon temperatures back into the
upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday and Friday. The week will conclude
with stable conditions, but as the high begins to slide into the
western Atlantic, winds will pick up as we move into the weekend.
Winds will strengthen on Friday and Saturday with the potential for
sustained easterly winds to reach 12-18KT and gusts up to 25 mph.

Looking into the weekend, long term model ensembles show with the
exit of the surface high and ridge, this may allow for the approach
of a shortwave trough and our next round of activity. The latest
model guidance does not show much rainfall with this trough, but
there will be considerate low-level moisture available (PWATs 1.4-
1.6") to support a chance for light showers (30-40%) on the Sunday.
Weekend high temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid-80s
across the region. Moving into the new week, an approaching body of
low pressure and associative cold front from the central CONUS may
bring our next round of showers, but significant model variation
only allows low confidence in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Periods of sub-VFR conditions this afternoon possible for East
Coast sites as scattered showers and thunderstorms push through
the area. There's a low-end severe threat with any potential
thunderstorms, including gusty winds and small hail. Winds ahead
of the convective period will remain out of the south/southeast,
becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

A mid-level shortwave is expected to pass through the coastal waters
today, bringing chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Expect brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds with the
strongest storms. High pressure builds back in north of the Gulf
Wednesday through the rest of the week, keeping rain chances near
zero. Winds and seas will remain less than headline criteria through
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            68  83  68  81 /  30  20  10   0
West Kendall     64  86  65  84 /  30  20   0   0
Opa-Locka        66  84  67  83 /  30  20  10   0
Homestead        66  83  67  81 /  20  20  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  66  80  68  79 /  40  20  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  66  81  68  79 /  40  20   0   0
Pembroke Pines   67  85  68  82 /  40  20  10   0
West Palm Beach  65  81  66  80 /  40  20   0   0
Boca Raton       65  82  67  81 /  40  20   0   0
Naples           63  83  63  84 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...ATV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
333 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
261945-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
333 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...Strong to Severe Storms This Afternoon and Evening...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
America.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms: A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and evening. Main hazards will include frequent to
excessive lightning, strong to locally damaging winds, large hail,
and localized minor flooding due to heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday as a frontal boundary
lingers over the state.

Rip current risk could increase again towards the end of the week
into next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
516 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

FLZ068-168-252130-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Metro Palm Beach County FL-
516 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Palm
Beach County through 530 PM EDT...

At 515 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Jupiter. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Juno Ridge, Jupiter, Fau North Campus, Tequesta, Juno Beach,
Limestone Creek, North Palm Beach, and Palm Beach Gardens.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2683 8004 2684 8006 2683 8005 2683 8006
      2682 8009 2696 8017 2696 8014 2697 8014
      2696 8012 2697 8012 2697 8008 2695 8007
      2695 8008 2694 8007 2686 8005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 233DEG 4KT 2693 8010

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hadi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
550 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

FLZ068-168-252215-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Metro Palm Beach County FL-
550 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Palm
Beach County through 615 PM EDT...

At 550 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Juno Beach, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Juno Ridge, Jupiter, Fau North Campus, Tequesta, Juno Beach,
Limestone Creek, North Palm Beach, and Palm Beach Gardens.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 2683 8004 2684 8006 2683 8006 2682 8010
      2695 8016 2697 8011 2697 8008 2695 8007
      2695 8008 2694 8007 2690 8006 2684 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 353DEG 7KT 2690 8006

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hadi

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
614 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 N Juno Beach          26.89N 80.06W
03/25/2025  M41 MPH          AMZ650             FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XJUP Juno Beach Pier
            reported a wind gust of 41mph at 5:56pm.

&&

Hadi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
619 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

FLZ063-252245-
Glades FL-
619 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Glades
County through 645 PM EDT...

At 619 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Brighton Seminole Reservation, or 8 miles
northeast of Lakeport, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Buckhead Ridge and Brighton Seminole Reservation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2714 8088 2712 8090 2712 8091 2710 8092
      2710 8093 2708 8093 2709 8095 2707 8096
      2708 8095 2706 8095 2706 8094 2704 8096
      2706 8097 2703 8099 2700 8105 2700 8109
      2710 8111 2712 8105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 260DEG 20KT 2705 8102

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hadi