Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Miami, FL

239 
WWUS52 KMFL 251749
SVSMFL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
149 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

FLC086-251800-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250325T1800Z/
Miami-Dade FL-
149 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

At 149 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Naranja, or
near Homestead, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Homestead Base, Naranja, Princeton, Homestead, Goulds, Homestead
Miami Speedway, Leisure City, Florida City, Cutler Bay, and The
Redland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2544 8048 2553 8047 2557 8043 2557 8032
      2543 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 273DEG 15KT 2551 8041 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Hadi

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1223 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be likely across
portions of southeast Florida this afternoon as a cold front and mid-
level shortwave move across the region. Satellite imagery already
shows the boundary sitting over our area as we remain in the warm
sector, while activity has been firing all morning across east
central Florida.

MFL's 12Z sounding and MIA ACARS data already show favorable
parameters for strong, damaging winds and small hail, especially
given stout SBCAPE, MUCAPE and DCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg
range, mid- level lapse rates > 6 C/kg, mid-level temperatures <
-10C, and the freezing level sitting just below 13000 ft. PWATs are
also climbing, with sounding readings of 1.1 inches. Most high-res
models have activity increasing after 3PM and lasting through the
evening hours, with the earlier activity concentrated over areas
south of Alligator Area, then propagating northward through the
evening.

There will also be a low-end threat of flooding rain with this event
across the East Coast metro areas given the potential for showers
and storms to become pinned by the Atlantic sea-breeze. There's
medium-to-high confidence that we could get least half an inch with
some of these showers, but HREF LPMM shows some isolated areas
having up to 3-4 inches of rain if convection gets pinned for a
prolonged period of time.

Shower activity will gradually decrease overnight as the front
and shortwave exit the region, but a few isolated showers could
pop up between nightfall and midnight. Lingering moisture will
provide for a second round of showers Wednesday as daytime heating
peaks in the early afternoon hours. POP grids will keep 20-30
percent coverage, highest towards areas south of I-75 where the
best moisture pool is shown on models.

Temperatures today will again reach the mid to 80s as southerly flow
persists. Evening lows will also remain on the warmer side with low
to mid 60s inland, and upper 60s to around 70 near the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Moving into Wednesday night, any lingering light showers will make
their exit into the waters. A large body of surface high pressure
will build in over the southeastern CONUS, with upper-level ridging,
to bring the return of a drier air mass and near seasonal
temperatures to wrap up the week. The trough's exit will allow for
northeasterly air flow to cool afternoon temperatures back into the
upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday and Friday. The week will conclude
with stable conditions, but as the high begins to slide into the
western Atlantic, winds will pick up as we move into the weekend.
Winds will strengthen on Friday and Saturday with the potential for
sustained easterly winds to reach 12-18KT and gusts up to 25 mph.

Looking into the weekend, long term model ensembles show with the
exit of the surface high and ridge, this may allow for the approach
of a shortwave trough and our next round of activity. The latest
model guidance does not show much rainfall with this trough, but
there will be considerate low-level moisture available (PWATs 1.4-
1.6") to support a chance for light showers (30-40%) on the Sunday.
Weekend high temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid-80s
across the region. Moving into the new week, an approaching body of
low pressure and associative cold front from the central CONUS may
bring our next round of showers, but significant model variation
only allows low confidence in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Periods of sub-VFR conditions this afternoon possible for East
Coast sites as scattered showers and thunderstorms push through
the area. There's a low-end severe threat with any potential
thunderstorms, including gusty winds and small hail. Winds ahead
of the convective period will remain out of the south/southeast,
becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

A mid-level shortwave is expected to pass through the coastal waters
today, bringing chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Expect brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds with the
strongest storms. High pressure builds back in north of the Gulf
Wednesday through the rest of the week, keeping rain chances near
zero. Winds and seas will remain less than headline criteria through
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            68  83  68  81 /  30  20  10   0
West Kendall     64  86  65  84 /  30  20   0   0
Opa-Locka        66  84  67  83 /  30  20  10   0
Homestead        66  83  67  81 /  20  20  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  66  80  68  79 /  40  20  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  66  81  68  79 /  40  20   0   0
Pembroke Pines   67  85  68  82 /  40  20  10   0
West Palm Beach  65  81  66  80 /  40  20   0   0
Boca Raton       65  82  67  81 /  40  20   0   0
Naples           63  83  63  84 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...ATV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
1014 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
261415-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1014 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
America.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Fog: Locally dense fog could reduce visibilities to below 1/4 of a
mile across portions of metro and inland Broward county through
noontime today. Make sure to exercise caution during your commutes.

Thunderstorms: a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon. Main hazards will include lightning, gusty winds,
large hail, and localized heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday as a frontal boundary
lingers over the state.

Rip current risk could increase again towards the end of the week
into next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
110 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

FLZ073-074-173-174-251745-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Far South Miami-Dade County FL-
Inland Miami-Dade County FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
110 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Miami-Dade
County through 145 PM EDT...

At 110 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm near Royal Palm Ranger, or 9 miles southwest of
Homestead General Airport, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Homestead General Airport, Inlikita, Royal Palm Ranger, Florida City,
The Redland, Homestead, and Everglades National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2537 8076 2549 8074 2561 8045 2537 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1710Z 270DEG 6KT 2543 8069

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Hadi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
131 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

FLZ073-074-173-174-251800-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Far South Miami-Dade County FL-
Inland Miami-Dade County FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
131 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Miami-Dade
County through 200 PM EDT...

At 131 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Naranja, or near The Redland, moving east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Homestead Base, Naranja, Princeton, Richmond West, Homestead,
Homestead Miami Speedway, Leisure City, South Miami Heights, Cutler
Bay, Black Point, Zoo Miami, Goulds, Palmetto Estates, West Perrine,
Richmond Heights, Florida City, Three Lakes, Palmetto Bay, and The
Redland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2554 8032 2553 8033 2551 8033 2550 8034
      2546 8034 2544 8048 2561 8045 2564 8039
      2560 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 270DEG 16KT 2553 8045

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Hadi