Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
709 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Models and sfc analyses begin the forecast period with low-lvl
moisture trapped between two frontal boundaries, one over the
Florida Keys and another over the northern portions of the
peninsula. At the mid and upper lvls, a large trough/low complex is
moving into the Atlantic seaboard, with most ensemble families
keeping the influence of the trough across the region in place
today. Relatively favorable conditions for active weather will
result in another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
A departing, weak upper level jet, 500mb temps around -10C, a pocket
of cooler/drier air aloft, and increasing PWATs to around 2 inches
should provide enough dynamic support for another bout of strong to
severe thunderstorms. Latest CAMs/mid-range solutions suggest even
cooler 500mb temps, down to -12C, along with a dominant 25-30kt
westerly flow, which may combine with the onset of sea breezes to
become focal points for deeper convection.

The Storm Prediction Center is keeping a marginal risk for severe
weather (level 1 of 5) for most of the eastern half of SoFlo,
including the Atlantic metro areas this afternoon and evening. The
window for the most significant weather hazards will be between 1pm
and 8pm, but showers and a few thunderstorms could still develop
outside of this timeframe. Main hazards will again include large
hail, frequent to excessive cloud-to-ground lightning, and damaging
wind gusts.

Latest HUR/LPMM continue to show potential for localized flooding
over the Atlantic metro areas, especially with slow-moving heavy
downpours and/or training of cells. Overall, highest QPF estimates
remain around 2 inches, but isolated amounts of up to 6 inches are
still possible. POPs/Wx coverage remains in the 50-70 percent range
this afternoon/early evening with highest chances over the eastern
and interior areas of SoFlo.

By Saturday, ensembles show the frontal boundary to the south
dissipating, while the front to the north become stationary.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned trough/low complex migrates further
into the Atlantic, dragging the upper level dynamic support further
away from the area. However, enough lingering moisture will remain
in place for at least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon/early evening. Weakening pressure gradients will
result in light sfc winds, which will allow for sea breezes to be
the main driving mechanism for deeper convection.

The increasing shower and storm activity may help in keeping
slightly cooler afternoon highs during the short term, although
still expected to hit the upper 80s to low 90s, warmest over
interior areas. Can't rule out some mid 90s over interior locations
each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Light synoptic flow will allow for the greatest foci of convection
to reside across inland South Florida through early next week,
primarily across the Everglades and the Lake Okeechobee region each
afternoon. Pop-up showers and storms will still be possible across
both metro areas before the bulk of convective activity congeals
along boundary collisions inland during the mid to late afternoon
hours. With a lack of shear and dynamics aloft, storm mode will
primarily be multicellular in nature with large complexes of showers
and storms existing on boundary collisions. High temperatures will
remain cooler during this period, kept at bay by cloud cover and
shower and thunderstorms.

The next mid-level impulse will be pushing eastward across the
Central United states by mid next week and its associated frontal
boundary will be approaching the Florida peninsula be the middle of
next week. Similar pattern is expected through early next week as
southeasterly wind flow is maintained. This will lead to a
continuation of seabreeze thunderstorms across inland and southwest
portions of the area each afternoon. 500mb temperatures will warm,
which should keep the threat of stronger activity more limited. As
the next front slowly approaches from the north, surface flow will
begin to slowly veer towards the south towards the end of the period
and end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Mostly VFR for the 00Z TAF period with light and variable winds
overnight. Occasional MVFR/IFR possible for east coast TAF sites
as the remaining showers move through the region until 02Z. E/SE
winds around 10 kts after 16Z with a westerly breeze expected at
APF. Scattered thunderstorms possible tomorrow afternoon into
early evening which may result in brief flight restrictions and
erratic winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Generally good boating conditions are expected to continue across
all the coastal waters through the forecast period, with mainly
light to moderate winds and seas around 2 feet. Only exceptions
will be with any thunderstorm activity that forms, which will
bring periods of rough seas and gusty winds, especially today and
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  89  79  89 /  30  50  10  40
West Kendall     74  92  75  91 /  30  50  20  40
Opa-Locka        76  92  78  92 /  30  50  10  40
Homestead        76  89  78  89 /  30  50  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  76  88  78  87 /  30  50  20  40
N Ft Lauderdale  76  89  78  88 /  30  50  20  40
Pembroke Pines   78  94  80  93 /  30  50  10  40
West Palm Beach  74  89  76  88 /  40  50  20  40
Boca Raton       75  91  77  90 /  30  50  20  40
Naples           75  91  74  91 /  30  60  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...JS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
702 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

FLZ063-066-232330-
Hendry FL-Glades FL-
702 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Hendry
and south central Glades Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 702 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm near Labelle, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Labelle, Port La Belle, Ortona, and Keri.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2658 8147 2671 8155 2690 8133 2666 8115
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 228DEG 14KT 2670 8142

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
714 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WNW North Perry Airpo 26.02N 80.28W
05/23/2025                   Broward            FL   NWS Employee

            Off duty NWS employee reports several large
            tree branches down near the intersection of
            NW 99th Ave and Johnson Street as a severe
            thunderstorm downburst occurred. Time
            estimated via KAMX radar.

&&

MFL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
723 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 S Cooper City         26.02N 80.27W
05/23/2025                   Broward            FL   Broadcast Media

            Broadcast Media shared photos of a large
            tree uprooted by severe downburst winds,
            Time estimated by KAMX radar returns.

&&

MFL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
742 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE North Perry Airpor 25.99N 80.23W
05/23/2025                   Broward            FL   Law Enforcement

            Miramar Police are on the scene in the 2700
            block of Sunshine Boulevard due to downed
            power lines and storm related damage due to
            a severe thunderstorm downburst. Sunshine
            Blvd is currently closed at the 2600 block
            as FPL and Public Works work on clearing the
            street. Time of the report is estimated via
            KAMX radar.

&&

MFL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
742 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

FLZ063-066-240015-
Hendry FL-Glades FL-
742 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Hendry
and south central Glades Counties through 815 PM EDT...

At 741 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Ortona, or 9 miles east of Labelle, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Moore Haven, Palmdale, Ortona, Port La Belle, and Lake Hicpochee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2704 8122 2691 8110 2689 8112 2688 8110
      2687 8110 2686 8109 2685 8110 2682 8106
      2682 8102 2679 8099 2668 8131 2683 8144
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 234DEG 24KT 2680 8129

LIGHTNING...EXCESSIVE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

GR