Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
152 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Models and sfc analyses begin the forecast period with low-lvl
moisture trapped between two frontal boundaries, one over the
Florida Keys and another over the northern portions of the
peninsula. At the mid and upper lvls, a large trough/low complex is
moving into the Atlantic seaboard, with most ensemble families
keeping the influence of the trough across the region in place
today. Relatively favorable conditions for active weather will
result in another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
A departing, weak upper level jet, 500mb temps around -10C, a pocket
of cooler/drier air aloft, and increasing PWATs to around 2 inches
should provide enough dynamic support for another bout of strong to
severe thunderstorms. Latest CAMs/mid-range solutions suggest even
cooler 500mb temps, down to -12C, along with a dominant 25-30kt
westerly flow, which may combine with the onset of sea breezes to
become focal points for deeper convection.

The Storm Prediction Center is keeping a marginal risk for severe
weather (level 1 of 5) for most of the eastern half of SoFlo,
including the Atlantic metro areas this afternoon and evening. The
window for the most significant weather hazards will be between 1pm
and 8pm, but showers and a few thunderstorms could still develop
outside of this timeframe. Main hazards will again include large
hail, frequent to excessive cloud-to-ground lightning, and damaging
wind gusts.

Latest HUR/LPMM continue to show potential for localized flooding
over the Atlantic metro areas, especially with slow-moving heavy
downpours and/or training of cells. Overall, highest QPF estimates
remain around 2 inches, but isolated amounts of up to 6 inches are
still possible. POPs/Wx coverage remains in the 50-70 percent range
this afternoon/early evening with highest chances over the eastern
and interior areas of SoFlo.

By Saturday, ensembles show the frontal boundary to the south
dissipating, while the front to the north become stationary.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned trough/low complex migrates further
into the Atlantic, dragging the upper level dynamic support further
away from the area. However, enough lingering moisture will remain
in place for at least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon/early evening. Weakening pressure gradients will
result in light sfc winds, which will allow for sea breezes to be
the main driving mechanism for deeper convection.

The increasing shower and storm activity may help in keeping
slightly cooler afternoon highs during the short term, although
still expected to hit the upper 80s to low 90s, warmest over
interior areas. Can't rule out some mid 90s over interior locations
each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Light synoptic flow will allow for the greatest foci of convection
to reside across inland South Florida through early next week,
primarily across the Everglades and the Lake Okeechobee region each
afternoon. Pop-up showers and storms will still be possible across
both metro areas before the bulk of convective activity congeals
along boundary collisions inland during the mid to late afternoon
hours. With a lack of shear and dynamics aloft, storm mode will
primarily be multicellular in nature with large complexes of showers
and storms existing on boundary collisions. High temperatures will
remain cooler during this period, kept at bay by cloud cover and
shower and thunderstorms.

The next mid-level impulse will be pushing eastward across the
Central United states by mid next week and its associated frontal
boundary will be approaching the Florida peninsula be the middle of
next week. Similar pattern is expected through early next week as
southeasterly wind flow is maintained. This will lead to a
continuation of seabreeze thunderstorms across inland and southwest
portions of the area each afternoon. 500mb temperatures will warm,
which should keep the threat of stronger activity more limited. As
the next front slowly approaches from the north, surface flow will
begin to slowly veer towards the south towards the end of the period
and end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

MVFR/IFR periods are possible through around 00Z with increasing
shower and thunderstorm activity, especially over the Atl
terminals. TEMPOs remain in place for the 20-24Z timeframe, but
short-fuse amendments will be issued as conditions evolve.
Moderate SE winds will allow for sea breezes to develop and move
inland through 00Z, then light and variable flow overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Generally good boating conditions are expected to continue across
all the coastal waters through the forecast period, with mainly
light to moderate winds and seas around 2 feet. Only exceptions
will be with any thunderstorm activity that forms, which will
bring periods of rough seas and gusty winds, especially today and
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  89  79  89 /  20  50  10  40
West Kendall     74  92  75  91 /  10  50  20  40
Opa-Locka        76  92  78  92 /  20  50  10  40
Homestead        76  89  78  89 /  10  50  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  76  88  78  87 /  20  50  20  40
N Ft Lauderdale  76  89  78  88 /  30  50  20  40
Pembroke Pines   78  94  80  93 /  20  50  10  40
West Palm Beach  74  89  76  88 /  30  50  20  40
Boca Raton       75  91  77  90 /  30  50  20  40
Naples           75  91  74  91 /  10  60  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...17

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
702 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

FLZ063-066-232330-
Hendry FL-Glades FL-
702 PM EDT Fri May 23 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Hendry
and south central Glades Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 702 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm near Labelle, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Labelle, Port La Belle, Ortona, and Keri.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2658 8147 2671 8155 2690 8133 2666 8115
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 228DEG 14KT 2670 8142

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GR