Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
312 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 219 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

- Significant river flooding will continue through the end of the
  week.

- A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms is in effect for the
  entire Mid-South for the rest of the afternoon. Large hail and
  damaging winds are the primary concerns.

- Dry and pleasant conditions return this weekend through much of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

As a reinforcing cold front attached to a deep midlevel low
approaches from the Ozarks, a handful of isolated cells have
popped up along the KY/TN state line. These storms are moving
quickly to the ESE with storm motions on the order of 40 MPH.
Large hail appears to be the primary threat this afternoon as mid
level lapse rates are quite high around 8 degC/km. Near term DCAPE
values over 900 J/kg also suggest there may be a few rogue storms
able to tap into the downburst potential, but this is largely a
hail event today. Not seeing any signal whatsoever for tornadoes
(extremely straight hodographs and very weak shear/SRH), which is
a welcome change.

By midnight, the cold front and its convection should be exiting
the area. We may see a few wraparound showers tomorrow afternoon
as the closed 500 mb low rotates about the Ohio Valley, but
there's barely enough instability to support thunder. Once this
system moves off toward the eastern seaboard tomorrow evening,
we're in for an absolutely beautiful weekend of mild springtime
temperatures and plenty of sunshine due to upper level ridging.
Expect highs in the 60s on Saturday with the initial post-frontal
cool air and a quick warmup to the 70s on Sunday.

The first half of next week continues on the dry and mild streak.
We'll have a weak and dry cold front move through on Monday, but
am not even carrying mentionable PoPs in the forecast. As the
upper level ridge begins to deamplify midweek, another cold front
will be able to break through the pattern Thursday evening. LREF
probabilities depict a very low (10% chance) of favorable
instability and shear overlapping at any point on Thursday or
Friday during the FROPA, so am not raising any alarms yet for
more severe weather.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

A few thunderstorms may develop this afternoon ahead of a cold
front. Confidence is low regarding thunderstorms reaching any
specific location so did not include in TAFs. Did include a PROB30
group for showers in the KMKL area. VFR conditions will continue
through at least Friday morning. Some MVFR ceilings could develop
by late Friday morning across northeast sections of the Mid-South
ahead of an upper level trough crossing the region. West winds
this afternoon around 5 knots shifting to the northwest and
increasing to around 10 knots Friday morning.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...ARS

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