Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
312 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 219 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

- Significant river flooding will continue through the end of the
  week.

- A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms is in effect for the
  entire Mid-South for the rest of the afternoon. Large hail and
  damaging winds are the primary concerns.

- Dry and pleasant conditions return this weekend through much of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

As a reinforcing cold front attached to a deep midlevel low
approaches from the Ozarks, a handful of isolated cells have
popped up along the KY/TN state line. These storms are moving
quickly to the ESE with storm motions on the order of 40 MPH.
Large hail appears to be the primary threat this afternoon as mid
level lapse rates are quite high around 8 degC/km. Near term DCAPE
values over 900 J/kg also suggest there may be a few rogue storms
able to tap into the downburst potential, but this is largely a
hail event today. Not seeing any signal whatsoever for tornadoes
(extremely straight hodographs and very weak shear/SRH), which is
a welcome change.

By midnight, the cold front and its convection should be exiting
the area. We may see a few wraparound showers tomorrow afternoon
as the closed 500 mb low rotates about the Ohio Valley, but
there's barely enough instability to support thunder. Once this
system moves off toward the eastern seaboard tomorrow evening,
we're in for an absolutely beautiful weekend of mild springtime
temperatures and plenty of sunshine due to upper level ridging.
Expect highs in the 60s on Saturday with the initial post-frontal
cool air and a quick warmup to the 70s on Sunday.

The first half of next week continues on the dry and mild streak.
We'll have a weak and dry cold front move through on Monday, but
am not even carrying mentionable PoPs in the forecast. As the
upper level ridge begins to deamplify midweek, another cold front
will be able to break through the pattern Thursday evening. LREF
probabilities depict a very low (10% chance) of favorable
instability and shear overlapping at any point on Thursday or
Friday during the FROPA, so am not raising any alarms yet for
more severe weather.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

A few thunderstorms may develop this afternoon ahead of a cold
front. Confidence is low regarding thunderstorms reaching any
specific location so did not include in TAFs. Did include a PROB30
group for showers in the KMKL area. VFR conditions will continue
through at least Friday morning. Some MVFR ceilings could develop
by late Friday morning across northeast sections of the Mid-South
ahead of an upper level trough crossing the region. West winds
this afternoon around 5 knots shifting to the northwest and
increasing to around 10 knots Friday morning.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...ARS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
254 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

MOZ115-TNZ019-020-048-050-051-102030-
Pemiscot MO-Crockett TN-Lauderdale TN-Dyer TN-Haywood TN-Gibson TN-
254 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PEMISCOT...
NORTHWESTERN CROCKETT...DYER...WEST CENTRAL GIBSON...NORTHEASTERN
LAUDERDALE AND NORTH CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 253 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Heloise, or near Caruthersville, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fowlkes, Bonicord, Central, Jenkinsville, Rohoboth, Maury Junction,
Halls, Poplar Grove, Dyersburg, Parker, Dog Hill, Tatumville,
Tennemo, Elizabeth, Stokes, Nauvoo, Boothspoint, Nankipoo, Big Boy
Junction, and Finley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southeastern Missouri...and west Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3619 8957 3599 8907 3573 8934 3607 8975
      3619 8964
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 303DEG 35KT 3611 8960

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
307 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

TNZ003-004-102030-
Weakley TN-Henry TN-
307 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WEAKLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 306 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Latham, or 11 miles east of Fulton, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Matheny Grove, Ore Springs, Jones Mill, Foundry Hill, Latham, Cottage
Grove, Palmersville, Ruthville, Como, Mill Creek, Osage, Brundige,
Pisgah, Whitlock, and Puryear.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 8851 3642 8827 3619 8846 3644 8882
      3648 8882 3650 8883
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 294DEG 29KT 3646 8869

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
320 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

ARZ028-TNZ048-049-102045-
Mississippi AR-Tipton TN-Lauderdale TN-
320 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL TIPTON AND WESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 320 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gosnell, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fulton, Fort Pillow State Park, Dell, Burlison, Calumet, Dearman,
Manila, O'Donnell Bend, Grider, Tomato, Hightower, Tuckertown, Rosa,
Luckett, Burton, Osceola, Rotan, Luxora, Woodland Corner, and
Chilson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
eastern Arkansas...southeastern Missouri...and west Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 8992 3568 8955 3547 8987 3590 9019
      3600 9002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 318DEG 40KT 3590 8998

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JAB

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