Severe Thunderstorm Warning 358, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
622 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue through late evening.
  There is a low chance (1/5) of a few severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening across the majority of the Mid-South.
  Damaging winds and flash flooding are the primary threats, but a
  brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out through this evening.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday through
  this weekend. At this time, the chances for severe thunderstorms
  appears limited.

- Hot and humid conditions will develop next week, with isolated
  to scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms continuing. Heat
  indices will exceed 100 degrees by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Humidity has increased significantly across the Mid-South this
afternoon, in the wake of a marine frontal passage. Dewpoints
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region, with
temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 80s. A few diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms have popped up over the past
hour, but have quickly dissipated due to the lack of upper level
support. Aloft, a large upper low continues to churn near the
ArkLaTex. This trough will eject a leading shortwave into the
Lower Mississippi Valley through this evening.

The current thermodynamic environment features a NW to SE gradient
of 500 J/kg to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and steep low level lapse
rates around 8.5 C/km. The favorable shear remains along and west
of the Mississippi River, where up to 25 knots is currently
available. However, this area still features -100 J/kg of CIN and
low instability, keeping CI at bay. As we progress into the late
afternoon/early evening hours, an area of convection near the
ArkLaMiss will translate northeastward along the Delta and quickly
advect in richer and deeper moisture.

With ample instability and moderate shear in place by late
afternoon, a Marginal Risk (1/5) of strong to severe
thunderstorms is in place. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are
the main threats, however, a brief spin-up tornado cannot be ruled
out as the low level jet ramps up to around 30 knots this
evening. The majority of convective activity will lift north of
the Mid- South just after midnight.

Friday will see additional showers and thunderstorms throughout
the day as the main trough slowly lifts northeast across the
region. Instability will be more limited tomorrow afternoon, due
to ongoing showers and thunderstorms and subsequent cloud cover.
As PWATs remain elevated to near the 99th percentile, the threat
of heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will be in place.
Additionally, with weak shear aloft, typical summertime microbursts
will be more favorable with afternoon convective activity.

Unsettled weather will persist into the weekend, as the stubborn
upper trough slowly lifts out of the Tennessee Valley. Weak upper
level northwest flow will build into the region in wake of the
exiting trough. This will allow a few ridge-rider waves to
translate SE through the Mid-South through early next week. Still
too early to sort out storm mode, but an MCS or two could
materialize in this pattern.

Heat will increase across the region as we move into early next
week. However, it looks to be short-lived as the ridge never
fully establishes itself across the South. Another trough,
embedded in the westerlies, will eject into the Lower Mississippi
Valley by the middle of next week. This will bring more unsettled
weather and potentially more organized convection to the region.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours
with a gradual weakening trend after sunset.Showers and thunderstorms
will return to the Mid-South on Friday. VFR ceilings are expected
this evening before lowering to MVFR levels overnight. Ceilings
will vary on Friday depending on thunderstorm coverage. South
winds at 5 to 10 knots tonight before diminishing overnight. Winds
will remain from the south increasing to around 10 knots on
Friday with higher gusts in the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

High humidity and wetting rain chances will continue through the
weekend.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...ARS

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