Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR
649 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 648 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
  weekend. The chances for severe thunderstorms appears limited,
  but strong winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

- Hot and humid conditions will develop next week, with isolated
  to scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms continuing. Heat
  indices will prevail at or above 100 late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A slow-moving upper low will remain our primary weather maker
through Saturday. Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed
the upper low centered over SW MO, but with several constituent
shortwaves ahead of the main trough axis that extended south into
east TX. Rainfall will remain possible just about anytime over the
next couple days, but greatest coverage of rainfall will be
associated with shortwave passages and daytime heating. Midlevel
lapse rates around 5 C/km and PWAT around 2.25 inches will
significantly limit the potential for large hail today. But
daytime MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, DCAPE near 900 J/kg and deep
layer shear to 35 kt will continue to present a risk for strong
winds. Given the high PWAT values, flash flooding will remain a
concern where storms train. Similar conditions are expected
Saturday, but east of the MS River given an eastward position
shift of upper trough axis.

The upper trough will lift to the upper OH River Valley on Sunday,
as our attention turns to a shortwave trough diving southeast from
MO. This feature will likely be convectively-aided by a storm
complex rounding the backside of large height ridge centered over
NM. Given the complex setup of this shortwave, differences
understandingly appear in the global model solutions. An any case,
PWAT values will exceed 2 inches over the Midsouth on Sunday, aided
by mid 70s dewpoints. It shouldn't take much kinematics to initiate
showers and thunderstorms given the amount of moisture and
convective instability Sunday afternoon.

The midweek passage of a progressive upper trough through the
Great Plains and middle to upper MS River Valley will likely bring
a weak cold front into the Midsouth Wednesday night into early
Thursday. Prefrontal moisture pooling under shortwave ridging will
aid in daytime heat indices approaching 100 through the Midsouth
Tuesday and Wednesday. Following this trough passage, the western
U.S. upper ridge will expand eastward, resulting in daytime
highs in the lower to mid 90s over the Midsouth late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

This is a very messy set of TAFs with respect to precip timing.
The upper low rotating about the TN Valley will encourage multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the entire TAF
period. Tried to avoid having long periods of VCTS/VCSH but this
setup warrants it due to the very sporadic coverage for most of
the day. There are a few windows where each site may see some
bursts of TSRA and/or reduced CIGs and VSBYs, prompting several
PROB30s and TEMPOs. Ceilings are also quite dynamic, ranging from
intermittent IFR this morning to VFR this afternoon. Winds will
generally hover between southeast and south 5-10 kts with higher
gusts, especially at JBR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

High humidity will accompany scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the middle of next week. Hot, humid and mainly dry
conditions will settle in by late next week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ARS