Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Memphis, TN

276 
WGUS54 KMEG 051845
FFWMEG
ARC035-MSC009-033-093-137-143-TNC047-157-052145-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-250405T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
145 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

The National Weather Service in Memphis has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Crittenden County in eastern Arkansas...
  Northwestern Benton County in northeastern Mississippi...
  DeSoto County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Northern Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Northwestern Tate County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Northeastern Tunica County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Western Fayette County in Tennessee...
  Shelby County in Tennessee...

* Until 445 PM CDT.

* At 145 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are 
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Bartlett, Southaven, Collierville, Germantown, Olive Branch, West 
  Memphis, Horn Lake, Hernando, Cordova, T O Fuller State Park, 
  Memphis, Lamar, Lakeland, Arlington, Byhalia, Walls, Edmondson, 
  Horseshoe Lake, Anthonyville and Southeast Memphis.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Bluff Creek, Cane Creek, Tenmile Creek, Wilder Creek, Grissum 
  Creek, Raner Creek, Watkins Creek, Field Creek, Laurel Creek 
  Canal, Johnsons Creek, Pigeon Roost Creek, Black Bayou, Harrington 
  Creek, Rock Creek, Rocky Creek, Hall Creek, Chubby Creek, Red 
  Banks Creek, Sticky Creek, Coldwater River, Barrow Creek, Seven 
  Mile Bayou, Shaws Creek, Scotts Creek, Fletcher Creek, Golden 
  Creek, Nonconnah Creek, Clear Creek, Beartail Creek, Cypress 
  Creek, Horn Lake Creek, Lake Cormorant Bayou, Loosahatchie River, 
  Harrison Creek, Russell Creek, Marys Creek, Duck Pond Bayou, 
  Mississippi River, Hargis Creek, Clay Branch, Little Coldwater 
  Creek, Workhouse Bayou, Grays Creek, White Station Creek, Camp 
  Creek, Little Cypress Creek Canal, Alexander Creek, Hurricane 
  Creek, Stafford Creek, Early Grove Creek, Wolf River, Stout Creek, 
  Teague Branch, Dawson Creek, Johns Creek, Treadville Creek, 
  Johnson Creek and Oppossum Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 9012 3533 8964 3535 8956 3509 8937
      3489 8924 3487 8935 3479 8972 3472 9006
      3468 9028 3510 9040

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

KRD

610 
WGUS54 KMEG 052124
FFWMEG
ARC035-MSC009-033-093-137-143-TNC047-157-052345-
/O.EXT.KMEG.FF.W.0052.000000T0000Z-250405T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
424 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

The National Weather Service in Memphis has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Crittenden County in eastern Arkansas...
  Northwestern Benton County in northeastern Mississippi...
  DeSoto County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Northern Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Northwestern Tate County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Northeastern Tunica County in northwestern Mississippi...
  Western Fayette County in Tennessee...
  Shelby County in Tennessee...

* Until 645 PM CDT.

* At 424 PM CDT, emergency management reported thunderstorms 
  producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 
  inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 
  inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already 
  occurring.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Bartlett, Southaven, Collierville, Germantown, Olive Branch, West 
  Memphis, Horn Lake, Hernando, Cordova, T O Fuller State Park, 
  Memphis, Lamar, Lakeland, Arlington, Byhalia, Walls, Edmondson, 
  Horseshoe Lake, Anthonyville and Southeast Memphis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 9012 3533 8964 3535 8956 3509 8937
      3489 8924 3487 8935 3479 8972 3472 9006
      3468 9028 3510 9040

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

KRD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1022 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...New UPDATE, MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1006 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

-Severe storms and excessive rainfall are expected to continue
 into tonight.

-An Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in effect for much of the Mid-
 South into tonight.

-A High Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect through tonight.
 Total rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches along and north of a
 Helena- West Helena to Holly Springs, MS to Savannah, TN line.
 This is not your average flood risk. Generational flooding with
 devastating impacts are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Updated to add TOR watch #122 and adjust pops/weather for the
remainder of the afternoon and overnight.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR Tornado Watch...
Issued at 1006 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

A quasi stationary boundary bisects the Midsouth generally along
the Interstate 40 Corridor. Short term guidance is pretty
aggressive in surging this feature to the north in response to an
approaching shortwave moving into north Louisiana. Latest obs
indicate that this is already happening. As a result it is a bit
uncertain how far north a tornado threat really exists, but we
decided to error on the side of caution and include all but 5 of
our northwest counties. Later this evening, as the disturbance
approaches the Mississippi River Valley, the front will abruptly
stall and return south-southeast sweeping across most of the
Midsouth before midnight. Conditions are most favorable for
tornadoes from midday through the afternoon hours in west
Tennessee south of I-40 and north Mississippi where the airmass is
undisturbed or less worked over than farther north.

Flooding and Flash flooding also remain a major threat. Flash
flooding warnings are already in effect for much of the Midsouth
with additional warnings expected. Flooding will likely become the
more significant threat later this evening and overnight.

30/Sirmon

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue along a stationary front from
northern AR into SW KY. Rainfall has been very heavy across NE AR
and the MO Bootheel over the past few hours with more than 2
inches in the past 3 hours on top of any already saturated ground.
Flash Flood Warnings are in effect. A previously tornadic severe
storm over east AR will ride along this outflow boundary and
possibly produce severe weather into NW TN in the short term. The
airmass south of the boundary is quite unstable with SBCAPES up to
1500 J/kg, 0-6km wind shear values of 50 kts and 0-1km helicity
values of 300 m2/s2+ supportive of severe storms. All hazards are
possible including a strong tornado. The remainder of the area is
fairly quiet right now with very warm temps and southerly breezes.

The latest hi-res models have the outflow boundary/surface boundary
sagging south to along and just north of I-40 around 7am and
probably becoming stationary again. Showers and thunderstorms along
this boundary will continue setting up an area of very heavy
rainfall somewhere from east AR into West TN. In addition, after
sunrise, showers an thunderstorms will likely start developing in
the warm sector south of the boundary as lift increases across the
region. We cannot sleep on the severe threat early this morning
as the parameter space continues to be supportive through the
morning hours along and south of the boundary/stalled front.

Lift will increase across the region as upper level energy lifts
NE out of West Texas and into the Southern Plains this afternoon.
A surface wave expected to develop along the stalled front across
the Arklatex and will lift the boundary north a bit across the
Mid-South. Showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rain will
continue mainly north of the TN/MS line through about noon. PWs
will be around 2 inches so flash flooding will continue to be a
major problem along and north of I-40 through noon.

As the day progresses the airmass south of the boundary/ongoing
convection will destabilize with SBCAPES pushing 2500 J/kg, 0-3
km helicity values of nearly 400 m2/s2 and 0-6km shear values
increasing to 55 kts. As the surface wave moves along the boundary
expect vigorous convective development with clusters and perhaps
a line pushing across the Mid-South during the afternoon. Damaging
winds look like the main threat with spin up tornadoes possible
as well. The best chance of severe weather today will SE of where
the outflow boundary is currently located. The best times for
severe weather outside of the immediate short term will be from
noon to 8 pm when the instability is maximized and the upper level
support is most robust. Severe threat should gradually wane in
the evening though may hold on across NE MS until around midnight.
The heavy rain threat will continue well into the overnight hours
since the front is slow to clear the area.

QPF amounts are highly dependent on where the front/outflow
boundary ends up stalling this morning. Places located in the area
of convection along the stalled boundary are likely to see very
high QPF amounts as their resident time in the heavy rainfall
could last for several hours. Additional QPF amounts of 5-7 inches
are likely across much the area. HREF probability matched mean
QPF amounts of an additional 7-10 inches are depicted across parts
of eastern AR and West TN which may represent a more realistic
forecast for areas that end up invof the stalled front/outflow
boundary. Keep in mind that areas north of a Helena- West Helena,
AR to Holly Springs, MS to Savannah, TN line have already received
4-6 inches, with locally higher amounts, so far during this
event. As a result, much of that aforementioned area will end up
with 10+ inches and isolated amounts approaching 15 inches. Given
the previous rains, saturate ground, the amount of water in the
river system we are looking at the potential for generational
flooding especially along and north of that Helena- West Helena,
MS to Holly Springs, MS to Savannah, TN line. All types of
flooding are likely including flash, areal and river flooding.
Given the anomalous PWs expect very intense rainfall rates which
can lead to flash flooding in unexpected places.

Rainfall will come to an end early Sunday across NE MS. A few
leftover showers are likely as the upper trough lifts NE into the
Mid MS Valley. Much cooler temps will begin filtering into the
region with highs around 50 north. As a deep upper trough develops
over the eastern CONUS expect much below temps over the Mid-
South. A substantial amount of the region will see lows in the 30s
Mon-Wed. A system moving through the OH Valley will bring a
chance of showers to the area on Thursday. Near normal temps
return by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

A boundary is situated across the Mid-South this morning. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue through most of the day invof the
boundary at JBR, MKL and MEM. Activity will eventually push into
TUP this evening. A period of stronger storms is possible at MEM
and MKL late this afternoon and this evening at TUP. IFR conds
will prevail at JBR, north of the boundary, through the period.
MVFR conds will lower to IFR later today at MEM and MKL as the
boundary eventually pushes southeast. TUP will improve to VFR
before lowering later today as the showers and thunderstorms move
in. After the thunderstorms push east this evening expect
leftover showers to linger through the period. Expect gusty south
winds south of the boundary with NE winds overspreading the area
as the boundary gradually shifts SE.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MSZ001>005-007-008-
     010>014-020.

     Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for MSZ006-009-015>017-
     021>024.

TN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...SJM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1053 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 AM     Flash Flood      1 W Huntingdon          36.01N 88.43W
04/05/2025                   Carroll            TN   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous roadways flooded, closed, and or
            washed out throughout Carroll County.

&&

12/CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1054 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 AM     Flash Flood      Bruceton                36.04N 88.25W
04/05/2025                   Carroll            TN   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous roadways flooded, closed, and or
            washed out throughout Carroll County.

&&

12/CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1055 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 AM     Flash Flood      Cedar Grove             35.82N 88.60W
04/05/2025                   Carroll            TN   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous roadways flooded, closed, and or
            washed out throughout Carroll County.

&&

12/CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1056 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 AM     Flash Flood      Trezevant               36.01N 88.62W
04/05/2025                   Carroll            TN   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous roadways flooded, closed, and or
            washed out throughout Carroll County.

&&

12/CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1115 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     Flash Flood      1 NE West Memphis       35.16N 90.18W
04/05/2025                   Crittenden         AR   Public

            Reported intersection flooded along North
            7th Street and E Barton Ave.

&&

AEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1138 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     Flash Flood      3 NNE Kennett           36.28N 90.03W
04/05/2025                   Dunklin            MO   Public

            Reported flash flooding along homes in
            Kennett, MO along highway 25.

&&

AEH