Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
650 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

-Severe storms and excessive rainfall are expected to continue
 into tonight.

-An Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in effect for much of the Mid-
 South into tonight.

-A High Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect through tonight.
 Total rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches along and north of a
 Helena- West Helena to Holly Springs, MS to Savannah, TN line.
 This is not your average flood risk. Generational flooding with
 devastating impacts are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue along a stationary front from
northern AR into SW KY. Rainfall has been very heavy across NE AR
and the MO Bootheel over the past few hours with more than 2
inches in the past 3 hours on top of any already saturated ground.
Flash Flood Warnings are in effect. A previously tornadic severe
storm over east AR will ride along this outflow boundary and
possibly produce severe weather into NW TN in the short term. The
airmass south of the boundary is quite unstable with SBCAPES up to
1500 J/kg, 0-6km wind shear values of 50 kts and 0-1km helicity
values of 300 m2/s2+ supportive of severe storms. All hazards are
possible including a strong tornado. The remainder of the area is
fairly quiet right now with very warm temps and southerly breezes.

The latest hi-res models have the outflow boundary/surface boundary
sagging south to along and just north of I-40 around 7am and
probably becoming stationary again. Showers and thunderstorms along
this boundary will continue setting up an area of very heavy
rainfall somewhere from east AR into West TN. In addition, after
sunrise, showers an thunderstorms will likely start developing in
the warm sector south of the boundary as lift increases across the
region. We cannot sleep on the severe threat early this morning
as the parameter space continues to be supportive through the
morning hours along and south of the boundary/stalled front.

Lift will increase across the region as upper level energy lifts
NE out of West Texas and into the Southern Plains this afternoon.
A surface wave expected to develop along the stalled front across
the Arklatex and will lift the boundary north a bit across the
Mid-South. Showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rain will
continue mainly north of the TN/MS line through about noon. PWs
will be around 2 inches so flash flooding will continue to be a
major problem along and north of I-40 through noon.

As the day progresses the airmass south of the boundary/ongoing
convection will destabilize with SBCAPES pushing 2500 J/kg, 0-3
km helicity values of nearly 400 m2/s2 and 0-6km shear values
increasing to 55 kts. As the surface wave moves along the boundary
expect vigorous convective development with clusters and perhaps
a line pushing across the Mid-South during the afternoon. Damaging
winds look like the main threat with spin up tornadoes possible
as well. The best chance of severe weather today will SE of where
the outflow boundary is currently located. The best times for
severe weather outside of the immediate short term will be from
noon to 8 pm when the instability is maximized and the upper level
support is most robust. Severe threat should gradually wane in
the evening though may hold on across NE MS until around midnight.
The heavy rain threat will continue well into the overnight hours
since the front is slow to clear the area.

QPF amounts are highly dependent on where the front/outflow
boundary ends up stalling this morning. Places located in the area
of convection along the stalled boundary are likely to see very
high QPF amounts as their resident time in the heavy rainfall
could last for several hours. Additional QPF amounts of 5-7 inches
are likely across much the area. HREF probability matched mean
QPF amounts of an additional 7-10 inches are depicted across parts
of eastern AR and West TN which may represent a more realistic
forecast for areas that end up invof the stalled front/outflow
boundary. Keep in mind that areas north of a Helena- West Helena,
AR to Holly Springs, MS to Savannah, TN line have already received
4-6 inches, with locally higher amounts, so far during this
event. As a result, much of that aforementioned area will end up
with 10+ inches and isolated amounts approaching 15 inches. Given
the previous rains, saturate ground, the amount of water in the
river system we are looking at the potential for generational
flooding especially along and north of that Helena- West Helena,
MS to Holly Springs, MS to Savannah, TN line. All types of
flooding are likely including flash, areal and river flooding.
Given the anomalous PWs expect very intense rainfall rates which
can lead to flash flooding in unexpected places.

Rainfall will come to an end early Sunday across NE MS. A few
leftover showers are likely as the upper trough lifts NE into the
Mid MS Valley. Much cooler temps will begin filtering into the
region with highs around 50 north. As a deep upper trough develops
over the eastern CONUS expect much below temps over the Mid-
South. A substantial amount of the region will see lows in the 30s
Mon-Wed. A system moving through the OH Valley will bring a
chance of showers to the area on Thursday. Near normal temps
return by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

A boundary is situated across the Mid-South this morning. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue through most of the day invof the
boundary at JBR, MKL and MEM. Activity will eventually push into
TUP this evening. A period of stronger storms is possible at MEM
and MKL late this afternoon and this evening at TUP. IFR conds
will prevail at JBR, north of the boundary, through the period.
MVFR conds will lower to IFR later today at MEM and MKL as the
boundary eventually pushes southeast. TUP will improve to VFR
before lowering later today as the showers and thunderstorms move
in. After the thunderstorms push east this evening expect
leftover showers to linger through the period. Expect gusty south
winds south of the boundary with NE winds overspreading the area
as the boundary gradually shifts SE.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MSZ001>005-007-008-
     010>014-020.

     Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for MSZ006-009-015>017-
     021>024.

TN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...SJM

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
725 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 SW Big Sandy          36.17N 88.15W
04/05/2025                   Benton             TN   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down on a powerline at Highway 641 and
            Big Sandy River Road.

&&

SJM