Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
122 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 122 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

- Severe storms expected to develop this afternoon/evening. Large
  hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats.

- Off-and-on storm chances continue Saturday into early next
  week, especially for the Eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-
  Pecos

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

West to southwesterly flow at the surface will continue though
this evening, along with a few shortwave disturbances embedded in
the zonal flow aloft tracking across the area this afternoon and
evening. With this active pattern remaining in place, we are
expecting another round of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms developing across the Davis Mountains and Stockton
Plateau this afternoon and evening and tracking generally east to
northeast tonight. Some of these storms will have the potential
for becoming severe along the dryline, and may produce impacts
such as large hail and damaging winds. SPC currently has the
eastern portion of our area under a Slight Risk for Severe Weather
through tonight, and a Marginal Risk along our northern counties
again for tomorrow.

Otherwise, overnight lows for tonight will remain generally in the
mid 50s to mid 60s range with some slightly cooler temperatures
in the higher elevations. Afternoon high temperatures on Friday
will also be similar to today, with highs in the mid 80s to mid
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

West to southwesterly flow aloft continues into Saturday morning
as an upper-level trough continues to amplify and slowly track
into western Texas by later in the day on Saturday. Diffluence
and weak pulses within the mid-to-upper-level flow, coupled with
some convergence along a weak surface boundary north of the area,
will once again allow for a few showers and thunderstorms to
develop late Friday night into Saturday morning, and again on
Sunday and Monday afternoon/evening. Some of these storms may
become strong to severe again given ample moisture/instability
east of the dryline, potentially producing large hail and damaging
winds.

The dryline moves a little farther east than on previous days by
Sunday, then as far as the Eastern Permian Basin Monday. A larger
system will approach the region during this time frame (though
the best forcing will be north of our area). Given the
displacement of the dryline, storm chances will be confined to
easternmost counties (10-30% chances for these locations).
Otherwise, southerly/southwesterly winds increase over the weekend
into early next week as the aforementioned system nears and
surface pressure gradients tighten in response. Another shortwave
looks to approach the area by the middle of next week, bringing
more low rain chances (10-30%) to the Eastern Permian Basin and
Lower Trans-Pecos.

Temperatures remain seasonable/a touch warmer than normal until
the end of the weekend, when widespread highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s look to return on the back of the increasing southerly to
southwesterly winds. A weak cold front will tack through the area
on Tuesday, bringing high temperatures in the 80s and slightly
closer to normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

MVFR cigs have largely lifted across area terminals, leaving VFR
conditions at most locations. Will continue to watch for possible
redevelopment of afternoon/evening storms but CAM's so far are
only showing sparse convection. With that in mind, will not add
any mention of storms at this point. If something does develop, we
can quickly add a mention. Otherwise, some gusty south to
southeast winds at times and mainly VFR conditions for the
afternoon and evening. A repeat of some low cloudiness spreading
back up the Pecos into the Permian Basin around KMAF looks
reasonable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  86  63  78 /  10  10  40  60
Carlsbad                 56  90  61  85 /   0  10  40  40
Dryden                   65  88  65  87 /  20  10  10  20
Fort Stockton            65  90  66  89 /  10  10  20  40
Guadalupe Pass           58  83  59  81 /   0  10  30  20
Hobbs                    58  87  59  78 /   0  10  50  70
Marfa                    54  86  56  87 /   0  20  10  30
Midland Intl Airport     64  87  63  80 /  10  10  40  50
Odessa                   64  87  64  80 /  10  10  40  50
Wink                     64  92  66  87 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
335 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

TXZ075-242115-
Pecos TX-
335 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY THROUGH 415
PM CDT...

At 335 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Fort Stockton, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Pecos
County.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 273 and 274.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3058 10283 3075 10292 3089 10265 3063 10250
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 245DEG 14KT 3070 10281

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
440 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

TXZ067-068-075-242230-
Pecos TX-Crane TX-Ward TX-
440 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN PECOS...SOUTHEASTERN
WARD AND WEST CENTRAL CRANE COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 440 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grandfalls, or 21 miles south of Monahans, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Imperial Reservoir and Grandfalls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
western and southwestern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 10300 3131 10304 3140 10275 3113 10270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 256DEG 10KT 3127 10291

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
452 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

TXZ067-068-242230-
Crane TX-Ward TX-
452 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WARD AND
NORTHWESTERN CRANE COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Thorntonville, or near Monahans, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Monahans, Roy Hurd Memorial Airport, Thorntonville, and Monahans
Sandhills State Park.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 75 and 87.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
western Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3148 10300 3161 10298 3164 10269 3141 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 272DEG 11KT 3155 10290

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JW