Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
610 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

- Severe storms expected to develop this afternoon/evening. Large
  hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats.

- Additional severe thunderstorms expected to develop Thursday
  afternoon (large hail and damaging winds are the primary
  threats yet again)

- Off-and-on storm chances continue Saturday and early
  next week, especially for the Eastern Permian Basin and Lower
  Trans-Pecos

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

A persistent weather pattern continues across the region. Shortwave
impulses within W-SW aloft will continue to translate over the
forecast area this afternoon and evening in advance of an upper-
level trough over the western CONUS. A dryline is located from
far southeast New Mexico to the Davis Mountains foothills this
afternoon. CAPE values generally range between 1500-2500 J/KG
along and east of the surface dryline this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over the Davis
Mountains and the Stockton Plateau as of 330 PM CDT. Forecast
soundings this afternoon look similar to yesterday, with steep mid
level lapse rates, high downdraft CAPE values in excess of 1000
J/KG, and long and nearly straight hodographs, which will favor
splitting supercells capable of producing large hail to golfball
size (or larger) and damaging winds in excess of 70 mph across the
western Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Big Bend region late this
afternoon. A tornado cannot be entirely ruled out over the
Stockton Plateau this evening, but large hail/damaging winds will
be the primary concern. A few storms may develop further east
across the Permian Basin through the evening.

Probably a similar scenario setting up on Thursday, with isolated
to scattered thunderstorms developing from the Permian Basin to
the Trans Pecos/Big Bend along the dryline. Storms will have the
potential to become severe again with large hail and damaging
winds once again being the primary threats. Lows tonight mostly
range in the 50s and 60s with highs on Wednesday topping out in
the 80s over most areas, except low 90s in the Upper Trans Pecos
and in the 90s to around 100 degrees along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

No significant changes to the long term with this forecast.

Yet again, by Thursday night storms push off to the east of our
area. Behind them, subtle mid-to-upper-level ridging sets up over
southeast New Mexico and west Texas Friday morning. Nevertheless,
this will rather quickly push off to the east and southwesterly
flow aloft will continue as troughing strengthens to our west.
Difluence and weak pulses within the mid-to-upper-level flow,
coupled with potential smaller-scale influences to our north (ex:
remnant boundaries), will once again allow for the development of
a few storms early Saturday morning into the afternoon/evening
while the dryline sharpens over western portions of the area.
Right now, it appears the best forcing (and rain chances) will be
found in the Northern/Eastern Permian Basin in particular (30-60%
chances). Like today and Thursday, storms may become strong to
severe given ample moisture/instability (surface dewpoints in the
50s and 60s, MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) and sufficient 0-6 km shear
(30-40 kts generally, up to 45-50 kts). Of course, details will
be refined closer to time.

Sunday and Monday, the dryline moves farther to the east (though
models differ somewhat as to just how far east). A larger system
will approach the region during this timeframe, but given the
displacement of the dryline storm chances will be confined to
easternmost locations/counties (10-30% chances for these
locations). Otherwise, southerly/southwesterly winds increase over
the weekend into early next week as the aforementioned system
nears and surface pressure gradients tighten in response.

Temperatures remain seasonable/a touch warmer than normal until
the end of the weekend, when widespread highs in the upper 80s
and low 90s look to return on the back of the increasing
southerly/southwesterly winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

VFR conditions are expected for most sites this evening.
Thunderstorms are exiting INK area shortly with thunderstorms
passing south of FST earlier. One thunderstorm may reach HOB but
this remains uncertain and it could pass to the west. Otherwise,
southeast winds continue for all sites through the period. MVFR
ceilings may again be possible for HOB, MAF, INK during the
morning hours, clearing by early afternoon. Thunderstorms may
impact eastern terminals by late afternoon but confidence is very
low at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  84  63  87 /  30  30  20  20
Carlsbad                 56  89  55  90 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                   66  86  65  89 /  30  20  10  10
Fort Stockton            64  88  63  90 /  40  30  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           57  80  58  82 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    58  86  58  87 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                    54  84  53  86 /  10  10   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     65  85  63  86 /  20  20  10  20
Odessa                   65  85  63  86 /  20  20  10  20
Wink                     64  90  63  92 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...91

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