Severe Thunderstorm Warning 511, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

- Medium-to-high (40-80%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
  today. A few storms may become severe, with large hail, damaging
  winds, and locally heavy downpours being the main concerns.

- Much drier conditions expected after today and through the
  extended.

- After a warm-up Sunday and Monday, a cold front brings near-to-
  below normal temperatures by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Radar reflectivity shows scattered showers continuing across the
Trans Pecos, Permian Basin, and Stockton Plateau regions early this
morning along a surface trough. An upper-level low is expected to
become centered over northern New Mexico/southern Colorado late this
morning and afternoon, putting our area under the left-exit region
of the upper-level jet. This will provide large-scale forcing for
ascent, favoring additional development of widespread showers and
thunderstorms by early afternoon. A Pacific cold front is expected
to move into the region from New Mexico, adding to the forcing for
ascent. Some storms may become strong to severe Friday afternoon as
ample lift, instability, deep-layer shear and moisture are expected
to be present with this system. The main hazards with the strongest
storms will be large hail, damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall,
and frequent lightning. However, an isolated tornado or two cannot
be ruled out. Localized flash flooding will be possible with any
locations that receive heavy downpours. The best chances (40-80%) of
showers and storms looks to be in the Trans Pecos/Stockton Plateau,
Permian Basin, and the Lower Trans-Pecos regions. CAMs show the bulk
of the activity moving to the east before midnight Saturday. Friday
night lows are expected to dip into the upper 40s to mid 50s behind
the aforementioned Pacific front.

The upper-level low that has brought our area showers and
thunderstorms moves overhead Saturday. This will allow for skies to
clear, leaving our area dry with relatively light northwesterly
winds. Afternoon highs in the post-frontal airmass are forecast to
be slightly below normal, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s
for most.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

By Sunday and Monday, zonal to northwesterly flow aloft sets up over
the region. Ridging to the south and westerly downsloping winds at
the surface will contribute to rising temperatures yet again. Highs
are currently forecast to top out in the 80s for most, with low 90s
along the Rio Grande and 70s in the higher terrain. However, this
warm-up looks short-lived. Ensemble guidance continues to indicate a
cold front will move across the area, bringing much cooler
temperatures by the middle part of next week. Models are still a bit
inconsistent as to just how cool temperatures will get, as well as
when the front will move through (the GEFS ensemble shows a large
spread on Tuesday's temperatures, while the ENS tends to be cooler
in general for that day). In any case, by the middle part of next
week near-to-below normal temperatures are expected across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and it looks like seasonable
temperatures continue through the rest of the extended. As far as
rain goes, the extended continues to look pretty dry.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are forecast from around
15Z Friday to 00Z Saturday. Have included -TSRA prevailing at MAF,
INK, FST, and PEQ from 18Z Friday to 00Z Saturday as the best
chances appear to be within that timeframe. PROB30 -TSRA remains at
HOB where confidence is lower. The strongest of storms do have the
potential to become strong to severe this afternoon. VFR conditions
are generally expected throughout the period, but may briefly drop
to MVFR (not confident enough to include in TAFs) with some
thunderstorms. Amendments will be made if needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               77  55  74  51 /  70  30  10   0
Carlsbad                 82  51  77  50 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                   85  58  86  55 /  50  30   0   0
Fort Stockton            84  55  78  54 /  60  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           71  49  68  51 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    78  49  74  48 /  30  10   0   0
Marfa                    78  44  73  41 /  40  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     77  55  75  52 /  80  10  10   0
Odessa                   77  54  75  52 /  80  10   0   0
Wink                     79  51  77  47 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
951 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

TXZ272-273-278-241530-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor TX-Eastern Culberson County TX-
Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
951 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTY
THROUGH 1030 AM CDT...

At 950 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Van Horn, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Van Horn and Culberson County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3105 10482 3115 10486 3130 10438 3109 10422
TIME...MOT...LOC 1450Z 260DEG 39KT 3110 10477

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1042 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

TXZ059-274-241615-
Loving TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
1042 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL REEVES AND CENTRAL
LOVING COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 AM CDT...

At 1042 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Orla, or 10 miles west of Mentone, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Reeves and central Loving Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 10375 3190 10373 3196 10371 3190 10357
      3168 10374 3171 10382
TIME...MOT...LOC 1542Z 210DEG 26KT 3176 10377

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

95