Flash Flood Warning 127, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
244 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1246 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

- A few strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and
  evening. Main threats for the strongest storms will be damaging
  winds, large hail, frequent lightning, and a tornado or two may
  also occur.

- Much drier conditions are expected Saturday night through next
  weekend.

- After a warm-up Sunday and Monday, a cold front brings near-to-
  below normal temperatures by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

An active weather day is in store for much of the region today.
Current radar and satellite imagery show thunderstorms across west
Texas extending down into the Davis Mountains. This is thanks to a
digging upper-level trough swinging across the southern Rockies
providing sufficient ascent and moisture for thunderstorm
development. A Pacific front is also evident across southern and
eastern New Mexico providing lift, instability, and deep-layer
shear. The 12Z MAF sounding suggests an increase in low-level shear
and lower than expected LCLs which aids in tornadogenesis, thus,
increasing a potential tornado threat. Main threats for the
strongest storms today will be damaging winds up to 70 mph, large
hail, frequent lightning, and a tornado or two will also be
possible. The greatest concern for a tornado or two to occur will be
over the eastern Permian Basin extending down to the Lower Trans
Pecos as there is going to be more available low-level and deep-
layer wind shear. Nonetheless, there remains a low tornado threat
with the bigger threats being large hail and damaging winds. Flash
flooding does not look to be a threat given how fast these storms
will move, however, if multiple rounds of heavy rainfall from storms
occur over similar locations, then localized flash flooding will
occur.

Timing and coverage wise, storms are expected to expand by early to
mid afternoon with cells merging together by late this afternoon
into the evening hours. Once these cells merge into a line of
thunderstorms, the hail threat will decrease while the wind threat
increases. CAMs have this occurring by 3-4 PM across the central
Permian Basin into the Trans Pecos.

After midnight, the line of storms advances eastward into the Hill
Country and Concho Valley. Remnant moisture from the aformentioned
system and front will keep cloud cover around limiting raditional
cooling. Lows are forecast to be in the mid 40s to 50s for most.
Saturday, the upper-level trough axis moves over west Texas and
ejects eastward into portions of central Texas. As a result, a dry
and pleasant Saturday is in store across the region. High
temperatures are expected to reach in the low 70s to low 80s for
most locations.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Sunday, a dry spell begins as the exiting upper trough enters the MS
Valley, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under northwest
flow aloft in its wake.  This will be reinforced by the upper ridge,
which all long-term models are in agreement in centering over
western Mexico/baja del Sur over the next week or so.

As such, thicknesses will be on the increase Sunday and Monday.
Monday could very well be the warmest day this forecast as highs
plateau a pleasant 8-10 F above climatology.

Unfortunately, a weak cold front will backdoor the northeast zones
Monday night, taking highs Tuesday back down to near normal.  CAA
continues Tuesday night, and Wednesday could be the coolest day this
forecast as highs struggle to struggle to top out a couple of
degrees below normal.

Another warmup ensues Thursday and Friday, although a rather
lackadaisical wamrup at that.  Highs Friday will round out the
extended an unimpressive 1-2 F above normal.

Regrettably, grids stay dry throughout the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Thunderstorms are currently ongoing across much of the region and
will continue this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms have
been strong to severe producing large hail and damaging winds and
this will remain through the afternoon and evening hours. This
will temporarily bring CIGs and VIS to MVFR and IFR conditions,
along with producing VRB winds with gusts up to 30-40 kts. Gusty
(up to 25 kts) southerly to southwesterly winds are also expected
to prevail into the early evening hours at most terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               55  73  51  82 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 52  76  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   58  86  56  88 /  60   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            54  78  53  85 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           49  68  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    49  73  48  82 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    44  73  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     55  76  53  83 /  20  10   0   0
Odessa                   54  75  53  82 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                     51  77  47  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...11

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
312 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     Hail             1 SW Fort Stockton      30.88N 102.90W
10/24/2025  E1.75 Inch       Pecos              TX   Emergency Mngr

            Pecos County Emergency Management reports
            golf ball sized hail in Fort Stockton near
            Everts St and Railroad Ave and and near
            State Hwy 18 and 45 Lane.

&&

21

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
350 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     Flash Flood      Mccamey                 31.14N 102.22W
10/24/2025                   Upton              TX   Law Enforcement

            Upton County SO reports flash flooding
            ongoing near a few intersections in McCamey.

&&

21

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
354 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     Flash Flood      2 N Rankin              31.25N 101.94W
10/24/2025                   Upton              TX   Law Enforcement

            Upton County SO reports flash flooding along
            portions of State Hwy 349 north of Rankin.

&&

21