Dust Storm Warning 21, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
305 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 242 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are expected across
  the region through Wednesday.

- Strong winds continue in West Texas and southeast New Mexico
  this afternoon and evening. Blowing dust with localized
  visibilities near zero will accompany these strong winds.

- Freezing temperatures are expected Thursday morning for most
  areas outside the lower Trans Pecos and Rio Grande valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

A windy day is in store across the region into tonight as a mid-
level trough continues to approach the area. High Wind Warnings
and Wind Advisories remain in effect until 4 AM CDT tonight. A
Blowing Dust Advisory is also in effect over much of the region as
these stronger winds will induce blowing dust, reducing
visibilities below 3 miles with locally near-zero at times.
Tonight, the aforementioned trough is expected to be over the
area with a surface cold front already passing through most, if
not all forecast zones. The frontal passage and lingering low and
mid- level jets associated with the trough will keep the winds
strong until 09Z (4 AM CDT). Low temperatures tomorrow morning are
anticipated to fluctuate from west to east, thanks to the cooler
air filtering quicker from the west. Lows ranging from the mid 30s
to mid 40s are expected across southeastern New Mexico, the
higher terrain, and the Trans Pecos, while areas across the
Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos will be in the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

Tomorrow, the mid-level trough continues to swing through the
Middle Mississippi Valley, while a surface high pressure system
builds in from the Rockies allowing the cooler air to settle in
the region. This will drop high temperatures 8-10 degrees below
normal for this time of year. Highs are forecasted to be in the
mid 50s to mid 60s regionwide, with areas along the Rio Grande and
Presidio valleys climbing into the mid 70s to low 80s.

Tomorrow night, a cold one is in store with temperatures reaching
or hitting below the freezing mark (32 degrees). Low temperatures
in the mid 20s to low 30s are expected across southeastern New
Mexico, Permian Basin, and the Trans Pecos, while areas along the
Rio Grande and Presidio valleys in the mid 30s. Given the area has
not seen freezing temperatures over the last few weeks, you may
want to cover or bring in any plants that could be affected by
these cold temperatures.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

The most active weather is in the short term forecast. The upper
level jet shifts farther north late in the week taking the windy
conditions with it. Thankfully, with decreasing winds come less
blowing dust and fire weather concerns. A series of upper level
troughs moves along the U.S./Canada border and into the Great
Plains through early next week sending several fronts into the
West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Thursday will be cool behind
this recent powerful system, however since the upper support later
in the week is well north of the area, the fronts will be lacking
cold air and we will not see much of an impact other than a few
degrees of cooling. Very dry air in place means no precipitation
the next seven days.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

MVFR visibilities and strong westerly-northwesterly winds are
expected throughout the afternoon into early evening hours across
most terminals, besides FST. Medium (40-60%) confidence of
visibilities briefly dropping to IFR conditions which is why
TEMPOs were added at CNM, HOB, PEQ, and INK. Winds are anticipated
to decrease after 06Z tonight before winds shift more
northwesterly by tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Winds have picked up the past couple of hours and solid red flag
conditions are being observed everywhere. Fortunately we have not
seen any hotspots on satellite imagery indicating a lack of fire
activity. There are still several hours left in the day though and
we will continue to monitor this closely. Winds remain elevated
well past sunset keeping the fire danger threat going until
around midnight. Current winds are out of the southwest and the
direction will change from a westerly to northwesterly direction
after sunset as a cold front moves through. Winds may even
increase after sunset behind the front temporarily increasing the
fire threat late before humidities increase. Winds diminish
tomorrow but will still be high enough that critical fire weather
conditions may occur for most of the area. Lighter winds in the
northeastern Permian Basin may prevent critical fire conditions
from developing there.

The remainder of the forecast will see elevated fire weather
conditions due to very dry air and fuels. Lighter winds should
prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               46  63  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 40  62  28  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   49  73  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            47  66  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           38  56  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    39  59  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    37  62  22  66 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     45  62  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   44  62  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     40  64  30  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for
     Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
     Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Blowing Dust Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for
     Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Andrews-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-
     Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-Upton-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for Davis Mountains-
     Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Loving-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for Andrews-
     Borden-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-
     Ector-Gaines-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Reeves County
     Plains-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for Andrews-Borden-
     Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Lower Brewster County-
     Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Blowing Dust Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11