Blowing Dust Warning 2, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1257 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1248 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are expected across
  the region through Wednesday.

- Strong winds return to west Texas and southeast New Mexico this
  afternoon. Blowing dust with localized visibilities near zero will
  accompany these strong winds.

- No precipitation chances through the extended, with episodic
  increased fire weather whenever gusty winds are present.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Another upper-level system approaches southeast New Mexico and west
Texas today. Southwesterly winds increase by late this morning, with
the highest winds expected in southeast New Mexico and in the
Guadalupe/Delaware and Davis Mountains. For that reason, a High Wind
Warning is in effect for these locations from noon to just after
midnight, and gusts up to 70-80mph are anticipated. Those areas not
in the warning will be in a Wind Advisory for the same timeframe,
with gusts up to 50-55mph expected. Of course, blowing dust will
once again be a concern. A Blowing Dust Advisory is therefore in
effect for large parts of our area, minus the southernmost and
easternmost portions of west Texas.

The system brings a front to the region by the late
afternoon/evening. The highest winds are expected to accompany this
front (between approximately 3pm and 9pm), though gusty
westerly/northwesterly winds will persist through the night into
Wednesday. Highs today top out in the 80s for most, with some 90s
in the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos thanks in part
to the strong downsloping winds. Behind the front, temperatures
Wednesday morning will bottom out in the 40s and upper 30s (about
5- 10 degrees lower than the lows forecast for this morning), and
highs that afternoon will generally be in the upper 50s and 60s
(70s along the Rio Grande).

Of course, the continued dry conditions and strong winds have led to
increased fire weather concerns through the short term. See the Fire
Weather Discussion below for more details.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Surface high pressure overhead Thursday morning will help bring our
coldest temperatures we've seen in a few weeks. Most locations will
to near freezing with valleys and cold-favored spots dropping into
the 20s. You may want to cover or bring in any plants that could be
affected by the cold temperatures. High pressure shifts east by
afternoon and southerly winds return. Temperatures will stay below
normal with highs in the 60s and low 70s.

A shortwave moving across the Plains Friday will help increase
westerly, downslope flow bringing highs back above normal into the
70s/80s. Northwesterly flow aloft will bring several cold fronts
into the region this weekend and early next week, but very little
change in temperature is expected. This pattern will continue to
keep us dry and fire weather concerns high.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

MVFR visibilities and strong westerly-northwesterly winds are
expected throughout the afternoon into early evening hours across
most terminals, besides FST. Medium (40-60%) confidence of
visibilities briefly dropping to IFR conditions which is why
TEMPOs were added at CNM, HOB, PEQ, and INK. Winds are anticipated
to decrease after 06Z tonight before winds shift more
northwesterly by tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

Fire weather concerns peak today as windy and warm conditions
combine with extremely dry fuels to promote a receptive environment
to fire activity. Strong southwest winds will develop this afternoon
in response to an intense jet over E NM. This looks to be another
dusty day which could help to shade fuels and lower PIG especially
across SE NM and most of the Permian Basin. Even so, well above
normal temperatures will support increased ignition potential in
surface fuel. The best alignment of a fire-effective LLTR and mid
level speed max will occur across the northeast Permian Basin where
RFTI values are forecast to be extremely critical (7-8). This is
where large fires are most likely given the current fuelscape and
extreme fire weather conditions. Late in the burning period around
sunset a wind shift to the west and northwest is expected.

Post-frontal conditions will exist Wednesday with cooler
temperatures, but winds remaining gusty. This will be a concern for
any fire starts that occur today. Dry return flow is expected
Thursday before several weak cold fronts move through the area this
weekend into early next week. Breezy, dry conditions will keep fire
weather concerns high into the foreseeable future.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  46  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 82  40  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   94  50  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            92  47  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           74  37  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    82  38  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    82  38  63  20 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     88  45  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   87  44  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     89  41  65  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday
     for Andrews-Borden-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for
     Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
     Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Andrews-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-
     Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Midland-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-Upton-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for Davis Mountains-
     Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Loving-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for Andrews-Borden-
     Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Lower Brewster County-
     Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Lea-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

     Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...11