Tornado Warning 38, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
251 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Several high impact weather events, perhaps historic, will
  affect the forecast area through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

18z KLZK upper air observation indicates a 'loaded gun' type
sounding. MUCape of > 4000kg is indicated, with a 0-3km (supercell
discriminator) of > 275 m2/s2.

After convective inhibition erodes this afternoon, all parameters
derived from this sounding support supercell development, with
support for long track, significant or greater tornadoes. Several
brief supercells already have been noted this afternoon.  Near
term forecasts will occupied on this severe weather event, which
will last throughout the evening hours, as a cold front moves
east into the forecast area.

This cold frontal boundary that will focus this severe weather event
will stall across the forecast area on Thursday. This feature
will become nearly stationary, as it becomes parallel to the
southwesterly upper level flow. The front will likely wobble due
to convective outflow(s), but much of the area will receive
excessive rainfall through Saturday, as several waves in the
southwest flow interacts with the boundary. The rainfall will
produce not only a flash flooding threat, but a river flooding
threat as well.

Rainfall will finally come to an end late Saturday and early Sunday.

Near to below normal temperatures will prevail Sunday through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Utilized latest CAM outputs for TSRA forecasts at TAF sites.
Expect sites to have 30-50% temporal coverage of MVFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     58  68  56  81 /  80  90  90 100
Camden AR         65  80  67  85 /  90  90  80  80
Harrison AR       51  62  52  72 /  20  80  60 100
Hot Springs AR    59  70  61  80 /  90 100  90 100
Little Rock   AR  61  74  62  84 /  90 100  90  90
Monticello AR     69  83  71  86 /  80  80  60  70
Mount Ida AR      58  70  60  79 /  80 100  90 100
Mountain Home AR  52  64  53  74 /  30  90  70 100
Newport AR        60  68  59  81 /  90 100  90  90
Pine Bluff AR     64  78  66  85 /  90  90  80  80
Russellville AR   57  70  58  80 /  70  90  80 100
Searcy AR         59  73  58  84 /  90  90  90  90
Stuttgart AR      64  75  66  84 / 100  90  90  80

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ008-016-017-025-
033-034-045>047-056-057-064-065-069.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ARZ008-017-
025.

&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
345 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-022200-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
345 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous strong to severe thunderstorms will be likely
today. Parts of northeastern Arkansas and east-central Arkansas
are within a High Risk for severe weather (level 5 out of 5).
However, the majority of the state is in either an Enhanced Risk
(level 3 out of 5), Moderate Risk (level 4 out of 5), or as
mentioned above a High Risk (level 5 out of 5).

All severe weather hazards will be possible across the state today
including: large hail (baseball size to potentially larger),
damaging wind gusts (in excess of 80+ mph), and tornadoes (a few
which may be long-track and violent... especially across
northeastern and east-central Arkansas).

Flash flooding is also a major concern as these thunderstorms
will be efficient rain producers and may proceed to lead to an
overwhelming amount of rainfall falling in a short period of time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat for severe weather will decrease slightly for
Thursday...but will still see some threat for large
hail...damaging winds...and an isolated tornado. Thursday's most
concerning hazard at the time looks to be a decent confidence in
large hail across portions of central and southwestern Arkansas.

A front will become stalled over some portion of Arkansas by late
today...remaining over the state into the weekend. Several rounds
of showers and thunderstorms are possible...resulting in several
inches of rainfall. The threat for flash and/or river flooding
will increase significantly by late this week. A large portion of
the state is forecast to experience total rainfall amounts from
today through Sunday morning of 4 to 8 inches statewide, with
values of 10+ inches possible across northeastern Arkansas.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will be needed today across the state,
especially across the eastern 2/3rds of the state which
encompasses the Moderate and High Risk contours via the Storm
Prediction Center.

Spotters should be prepared to possibly encounter all hazards:
large hail of baseball size or larger, damaging wind gusts of 60
mph to 80+ mph, a tornadoes (a few which could be violent and
long-track). Additionally, spotters should be prepared to
encounter flash flooding and understand as this threat does extend
into the evening hours the dangers associated with spotting at
night.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

74

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