Tornado Warning 37, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

As of 3 AM CDT, current observations indicate a warm front has moved
across the CWA from south to north and winds are now ramping up
across the state out of the south with efficient warming and
moistening at the surface with temperatures and dewpoint
temperatures that have actually increased throughout the night.
Unfortunately, this is creating an appreciable warm sector across
the state of Arkansas which will set the table for a severe weather
outbreak.

A note of change to the overall seriousness of this forecast
discussion is the upgrade of the SPC Day 1 Outlook (Storm Prediction
Center) category to a High Risk (level 5 out of 5) across portions
of east-central and northeastern Arkansas. However, do not become
complacent despite which category occupies your location. Today has
the making of a serious, severe weather outbreak across the entire
state.

For today, all hazards continue to be in play across the entire
state. The risk of very large hail in excess of baseball size or
possibly larger is a real possibility for the entire state of
Arkansas, damaging wind gusts of 60 mph to 80+ mph will be
possible across the central and eastern parts of Arkansas, and
tornadoes (some of which will likely be long-track and violent)
will be possible across the southeastern half of Arkansas;
however, the highest threat for long-track, violent tornadoes will
be across parts of northeastern Arkansas and east-central
Arkansas in the same placement as the overall High Risk outlook
for severe weather.

In the upper lvls, a H500 closed low is moving over of the Central
Plains region of the CONUS sweeping over the Mid-West region of the
CONUS into the day. At the sfc, the aforementioned warm sector is
already beginning to take place setting the table for a severe
weather outbreak across the state in the form of the lifting warm
front and cold front that is on approach to the Natural State via
Oklahoma.

The parameter space at the sfc will be more than supportive of all
modes of severe weather. Latest short-term high resolution guidance
soundings forecast an environment by early Wednesday afternoon that
is progged to be in place with model agreement of SBCAPE between
1,800 J/kg and 3,000+ J/kg (in various locations statewide) and ESRH
(Effective Storm Relative Helicity) between the values of 200
m^2/s^2 and 400+ m^2/s^2 (in various locations statewide). In
addition, hodographs show large sickle-shaped between 0 and 3km
which is evident of super-cellular storm mode which is associated
with all hazards from large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
tornadoes.

Expect numerous strong to severe thunderstorms across Arkansas
during this afternoon through this evening with the greatest
frequency of strong to severe thunderstorms across the eastern two-
thirds of the state including the Little Rock metro area. All modes
of severe weather will be likely throughout the duration of the day
into late this evening with the overall severe threat transitioning
from west to east throughout the day as the cold front begins to
enter the state at the Arkansas/Oklahoma border early this
afternoon.

Today has the necessary ingredients in place to be a
memorable day severe weather outbreak wise which is quite the
declarative statement given the history of severe weather in
Arkansas. It is an absolute must that you remain vigilant today to
quickly changing weather conditions and have a severe weather action
plan in place and the means to activate that plan in a matter of
minutes to protect life.

Into Thursday, the atmosphere will quickly recover and the cold
front that moves into Arkansas will eventually stall during the day
on Wednesday which will setup another convective weather risk during
the day on Thursday. In the upper lvls, a trof will dig across the
Four Corners region of the CONUS and this pattern at H500 is progged
to remain fixated through Sunday before pattern progression evolves
eastward.

On Thursday, all types of severe weather will be once again be
possible, but the greatest confidence remains in the possibility of
large hail across portions of southwestern and central Arkansas.

A second severe weather hazard to mention and that is just as
concerning (probably more) than the convective weather will take
place over this period of today through Sunday will be critical life-
threatening flash flooding as well as river flooding statewide.
Latest WPC (Weather Prediction Center) guidance has outlined several
days in which a moderate risk of excessive rainfall exists over a
large portion of the state between midday and Sunday morning. A
period of more than four days where excessive rainfall is progged to
fall.

Latest high-resolution guidance has a clear, problematic footprint
of rainfall totals from Wednesday through Sunday between 4 to 10+
inches. The highest rainfall totals remain to be placed across
northeastern Arkansas. However, a large part of the CWA and state is
likely to see between 4 and 8 inches of rainfall over this period.

Strong low level flow will be noted with a stout and persistent
low level jet progged to advect moisture into the region between
today and early Sunday is noted in all model guidance.
Additionally, PW values will be unusually high for this time of
the year, forecast between 1.6 and 1.9 inches which is evident of
an extremely moist atmosphere that will be effective at producing
cells which will have high rainfall rates.

Overall, confidence is high regarding this to be a high impact event
for today and Thursday (especially today) for convective severe
weather with all severe weather hazards possible.

Beginning today through early Sunday, numerous rounds of heavy rain
will begin to impact the CWA and state of Arkansas. Flash flooding
and river flooding will become likely beginning today over the next
several days. The Flood Watch that encapsulates this threat is a
Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Flood Watch given the amount
of rainfall forecast to fall in a short period of time. It is a must
if you encounter a water-covered roadway or high water in general to
find another route as the power of the water itself can easily sweep
a vehicle away along with the road surface underneath the water may
be compromised or gone completely. River flooding will likely become
an issue as well. It is absolutely imperative to stay up to date to
the latest NWS forecast with regards to severe weather hazards and
severe hydrologic hazards!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Utilized latest CAM outputs for TSRA forecasts at TAF sites.
Expect sites to have 30-50% temporal coverage of MVFR conditions.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     80  59  68  60 / 100  80 100  90
Camden AR         83  66  80  67 /  90  90  90  80
Harrison AR       77  52  63  54 /  90  30  90  60
Hot Springs AR    78  60  71  62 / 100  90 100  90
Little Rock   AR  82  64  71  65 / 100  90 100  90
Monticello AR     84  70  83  71 /  80  80  80  60
Mount Ida AR      77  59  71  61 / 100  90 100  90
Mountain Home AR  77  54  64  55 /  90  30 100  70
Newport AR        82  61  69  61 /  90  90 100  90
Pine Bluff AR     84  66  79  67 /  90  90 100  80
Russellville AR   79  58  69  61 /  90  70 100  90
Searcy AR         82  61  70  62 /  90  90 100  90
Stuttgart AR      82  66  75  67 /  90  90 100  90

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ008-016-017-025-
033-034-045>047-056-057-064-065-069.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ARZ008-017-
025.

&&

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...74

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
345 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-022200-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
345 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Numerous strong to severe thunderstorms will be likely
today. Parts of northeastern Arkansas and east-central Arkansas
are within a High Risk for severe weather (level 5 out of 5).
However, the majority of the state is in either an Enhanced Risk
(level 3 out of 5), Moderate Risk (level 4 out of 5), or as
mentioned above a High Risk (level 5 out of 5).

All severe weather hazards will be possible across the state today
including: large hail (baseball size to potentially larger),
damaging wind gusts (in excess of 80+ mph), and tornadoes (a few
which may be long-track and violent... especially across
northeastern and east-central Arkansas).

Flash flooding is also a major concern as these thunderstorms
will be efficient rain producers and may proceed to lead to an
overwhelming amount of rainfall falling in a short period of time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat for severe weather will decrease slightly for
Thursday...but will still see some threat for large
hail...damaging winds...and an isolated tornado. Thursday's most
concerning hazard at the time looks to be a decent confidence in
large hail across portions of central and southwestern Arkansas.

A front will become stalled over some portion of Arkansas by late
today...remaining over the state into the weekend. Several rounds
of showers and thunderstorms are possible...resulting in several
inches of rainfall. The threat for flash and/or river flooding
will increase significantly by late this week. A large portion of
the state is forecast to experience total rainfall amounts from
today through Sunday morning of 4 to 8 inches statewide, with
values of 10+ inches possible across northeastern Arkansas.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will be needed today across the state,
especially across the eastern 2/3rds of the state which
encompasses the Moderate and High Risk contours via the Storm
Prediction Center.

Spotters should be prepared to possibly encounter all hazards:
large hail of baseball size or larger, damaging wind gusts of 60
mph to 80+ mph, a tornadoes (a few which could be violent and
long-track). Additionally, spotters should be prepared to
encounter flash flooding and understand as this threat does extend
into the evening hours the dangers associated with spotting at
night.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

74

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
141 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

ARZ004-103-112-113-212-213-313-021915-
Boone County Except Southwest AR-Marion AR-
Newton County Higher Elevations AR-Newton County Lower Elevations AR-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations AR-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations AR-
Searcy County Lower Elevations AR-
141 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Searcy,
northeastern Newton, southern Marion and southeastern Boone Counties
through 215 PM CDT
...

At 141 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Carver, or 7 miles east of Jasper, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Yardelle...                       Ralph...
Gilbert...                        Western Grove...
Summit...                         Carver...
Maumee Crossing...                Eros...
Bruno...                          Duff...
Flippin...                        Dugger...
Rea Valley...                     Yellville...
Hasty...                          Woolum Recreation Area...
Maumee...                         Lion Hill...
Rush...                           St. Joe...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for north central
Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 9313 3603 9320 3630 9258 3608 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 238DEG 38KT 3601 9305

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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