Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Louisville, KY

244 
WGUS73 KLMK 040540
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
140 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

KYC021-045-079-113-137-151-040550-
/O.EXP.KLMK.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-250404T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Boyle KY-Casey KY-Garrard KY-Jessamine KY-Lincoln KY-Madison KY-
140 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 145 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BOYLE, NORTHEASTERN CASEY, GARRARD, SOUTHERN 
JESSAMINE, LINCOLN AND MADISON COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 800 AM EDT Sunday for portions 
of Indiana and Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3762 8469 3762 8465 3764 8468 3777 8452
      3776 8409 3768 8410 3767 8409 3764 8413
      3757 8409 3756 8416 3752 8420 3754 8435
      3748 8437 3749 8445 3733 8450 3736 8456
      3724 8472 3736 8472 3743 8485 3755 8485

$$

SRW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
715 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Historic and possibly catastrophic flooding is expected
  across the region through the weekend. Training thunderstorms
  are expected to drop 5-10 inches of total rainfall through
  Sunday across the area. Locally higher accumulations are
  possible.

- Chances for strong to severe storms continue through the day.
  Primary risk area is south of the Western Kentucky Fwy/Blue
  Ridge Pkwy. All severe hazards are possible including
  flooding, damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.

- Flooding chances linger through the weekend. Please be aware
  of flooding potential and do not drive into flooded areas. The
  depth and speed of flood waters are difficult to determine,
  especially at night. Turn around, don't drown.

- Drier conditions return Monday and Tuesday with more showers
  and thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

****SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORM AND FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THIS
 EVENING****

Satellite imagery this morning showed the evolution of the ongoing
complex situation across the region. Looking at the macro-scale, a
large synoptic low across eastern Canada is dropping an expansive
cold front stretching from the NE CONUS SW through central KY into
Texas. Northwest flow on the backside of this synoptic low is
pushing cooler air into the central CONUS while southerly flow over
the SE CONUS pushes warm air and copious moisture up from the Gulf.
All of these things are converging upon AR, TN, KY leading to
another active day across the region. Making things a little more
complicated, surface observations show a surface to mid level
mesoscale low across central TX that is enhancing southerly WAA and
frontogenesis between these systems.

These competing air masses are stalling out the movement of the
synoptic scale fronts which are more or less stationary from
northern MS through central TN into eastern KY in a generally west
southwest to east northeast layout. Storms motions parallel to this
boundary sets up an environment where storms can initiate on the
boundary, move along it, then more storms form behind them training
over the same areas repeatedly all day. Add to that the continued
advection of moisture into the area which essentially replenishes
the precipitable water creating a environment conducive to repeated
heavy rainfall. QPF values over the course of the next 24 hours
average around 3-4" with the min-max of the range being at least 1
inch across SE KY and topping out around 3-4 inches across central
and southwestern KY. QPF through Sunday averages around 5-6 inches
cumulative with at least 3 inches on the lower end and 9-10 inches
on the upper end. Flooding (both flash and river) is going to be an
issue, potentially catastrophic flooding is possible.

Continued warm air and moisture advection maintains instability
through the afternoon enabling the development of strong to severe
thunderstorms. High-res CAMs are a little less aggressive with the
northward movement of the front which keeps the strong to severe
potential south of the Western KY Freeway/Blue Ridge Pkwy. Tornado
potential remains active through the afternoon with 0-1km bulk shear
and storm relative helicity above 40 knots and 300 m2/s2
respectively. The convergence of these convective variables is
further south making the greatest tornado chances along the KY/TN
border gradually decreasing as you move north toward Elizabethtown.
The good news is that both SBCAPE and MUCAPE wane as the evening
progresses lowering overall severe potential after sunset. The
boundary lifts a little northward through the night enveloping the
rest of the region in rainfall through tomorrow morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

**** MAJOR FLOODING (POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING) EXPECTED****

As alluded in the previous paragraph the strong Bermuda high to
the east impedes the movement of the synoptic cold front
causing it to stagnate over the OH Valley for the next few days.
A northward surge in the upper level flow brings small breaks
in the precipitation on Friday; however, scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue through Friday. Saturday, a large upper
level low across the SW CONUS finally begins to shove the front
eastward. This is further motivated by a strong surface lee
trough. Unfortunately this strong influx will result in another
day of widespread heavy rainfall Sunday. An additional 3-4
inches are possible (adding up to the total QPF mentioned
previously of 8-10 inches of total precipitation). Fortunately,
instability remains rather lacking, but PWAT values at or above
1.5-2 inches promotes efficient heavy rainfall with 1-2 inch per
hour rates not out of the question. Rain rates and
accumulations Sunday look heavier than what we are seeing today.
The good news is that once this front rolls through, things
look to dry out Monday and Tuesday. 500mb flow turns
northwesterly behind these systems allowing a bit of a break
before another wave rolls through the area Wednesday afternoon
and Thursday bringing more showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 714 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Periodic thunderstorms and heavy rain will highlight the entire TAF
period for all the terminals and this will be reflected with many
PROB30 statements. Cloud ceilings will fluctuate between MVFR and
IFR through 06Z and IFR flight category will occur when rain showers
or thunderstorms go over the terminal and MVFR flight category will
occur in the periods of time when the rain ends. After 06Z we should
see a large squall line of storms and heavy rain enter from
southwest to northeast and overspread much of southern Indiana and
central Kentucky.  Between 12Z-00Z the greater chances of rain and
storms will occur for HNB, SDF, LEX, and RGA with lesser chances of
rain and storms for BWG as the warm front and better lift will be in
southern Indiana...however isolated strong storms will be in the
forecast around BWG during this time.  Probabilities of MVFR will be
greater in BWG as well (70-80%)...while probabilities of IFR (60-
90%) and possible LIFR (10-20%) categories around HNB, SDF, LEX, and
RGA will be greater during this time especially with the stronger
thunderstorms and heavy rain which could take surface visibilities
to as low as 1-2 SM at times and ceilings to 500 ft or below.
Generally the environmental surface winds will be on the light and
variable side at 5-10 kts but between 12-00Z we could see occasional
thunderstorm wind gusts at 20-30 kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM...BP (WFOEAX)
LONG TERM...BP (WFOEAX)
AVIATION...WFODDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
Issued by National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
356 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>065-070-
071-042000-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion-
Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Logan-Warren-
356 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 /256 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana
and central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rounds of additional showers and thunderstorms continue today and
tonight. Some storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes possible. Heavy rainfall is also likely with
localized flooding issues expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional showers and strong storms continue Friday into the
weekend. High-impact, major rainfall, and flooding is anticipated
across the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday.
Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is expected, and major
river flooding is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KYZ066-067-072>078-081-082-042000-
Casey-Lincoln-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
356 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 /256 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 107 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana
and central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rounds of additional showers and thunderstorms continue today and
tonight. Some storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes possible. Heavy rainfall is also likely with
localized flooding issues expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional showers and strong storms continue Friday into the
weekend. High-impact, major rainfall, and flooding is anticipated
across the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday.
Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is expected, and major
river flooding is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
104 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

KYZ063-064-074-076-077-031845-
Hart KY-Metcalfe KY-Barren KY-Adair KY-Green KY-
104 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN GREEN...SOUTHEASTERN
HART...CENTRAL BARREN...WEST CENTRAL ADAIR AND NORTHERN METCALFE
COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM CDT...

At 104 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Glasgow, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Glasgow, Greensburg, Edmonton, Three Springs, Pickett, Node, Coral
Hill, Lecta, Haywood, and Bliss.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3686 8601 3704 8610 3729 8548 3704 8535
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 247DEG 46KT 3699 8597

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
222 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 PM     Flood            1 SW Franklin           36.72N 86.58W
04/03/2025                   Simpson            KY   Emergency Mngr

            Spoke with EM and he reports widespread
            flooding and road closures across Simpson
            County.

&&

CG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
605 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     Flash Flood      2 WNW Wisdom            37.01N 85.73W
04/03/2025                   Metcalfe           KY   Emergency Mngr

            Water rescue along Dripping Springs Bragg
            Rd.

&&

EBW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
653 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     Flood            2 NNE Rockfield         36.92N 86.54W
04/03/2025                   Warren             KY   Trained Spotter

            2 to 3 inches of standing water all the way
            across Marty Drive.

&&

EBW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
741 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Flash Flood      1 ESE Buckeye           37.71N 84.48W
04/03/2025                   Garrard            KY   Public

            Social Media Video shows rushing water over
            the bridge on Dry Branch Rd.

&&

BTN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
751 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Ekron                   37.93N 86.18W
04/02/2025                   Meade              KY   Public

            Pillar knocked off front porch as well as
            shed off foundation. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

RJS