Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
257 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* HISTORIC AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING FLOODING AS A RESULT OF
  NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS COMING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY
  THROUGH THE WEEKEND

* SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
  HAIL, WIND AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

07z upper air and surface analysis shows a large and intense squall
line extending from the Great Lakes, through central Kentucky and
back south and westward through central Arkansas.
The line of storms is aided by intense lift from a 130 kt jet in the
Great Lakes and a 50-70 kt low level jet bringing in moisture from
the Gulf. Kentucky mesonet sites just since midnight have shown a
swath of 0.5-1.5 inches of rain and total rainfall amounts in the
last 24 hours have already amounted 1-2 inches of rain from north
central through southwest Kentucky.
This rain is the start of what is to be several days worth of rain
which as we go through the event could lead to catastrophic
flooding.

Throughout today a stalled frontal boundary through central Kentucky
will combine with robust gulf moisture from surface winds out of the
south and an upper level pattern which will continue to bring
moisture in from the southwest.  Thunderstorms look to be constant
throughout the day with rainfall rates at 0.25-0.5 inch per hour or
more at times.  Later this afternoon a warm front in Tennessee will
move northward into south central Kentucky and with robust CAPE
values and wind shear in the vicinity of the front we could once
again see strong to severe thunderstorms mainly through southern
Kentucky and northern Tennessee.  Hail, wind, and tornadoes are all
possible later this afternoon.  ECWMF and NAEFS PW values during the
day hover around 1.5 inches meaning these storms will have a lot of
moisture to ring out over a long period of time.

Tonight into Friday as the large longwave trough and closed low in
the desert southwest intensifies it should cause the upper level
flow to lift slightly northward and take the train of heavier rain
slightly northward into Indiana and Illinois and we could even see a
break in the rainfall activity in southern Kentucky for a time.  NBM
probabilities of seeing 12 hour rain greater than 0.5 inch during
the day on Friday are highest in southern Indiana (50%) and lowest
in southern Kentucky (~10%).  The severe weather threat also shifts
to the north and west with areas from southwest Indiana through
western Kentucky having the higher threat for strong storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The slow moving trough in the desert southwest moves eastward during
the weekend and this will setup a long duration heavy rainfall event
through the Ohio Valley especially from Saturday night through
Monday morning.  EFI forecasts shows good ensemble agreement in the
Euro models of a widespread high precipitation event as confidence
is around 90% and shift of tails at 1 indicating better confidence
in an extreme event.  THis rain combining with the rain received
already from Wednesday night through Friday is having total forecast
amounts at around 8-9 inches widespread through central Kentucky and
possibly locally higher amounts.  NBM probabilities of receiving at
least 5 inches of rain from the event are widespread 60-80% across
central Kentucky.  It can't be said enough that if you are in flood
prone areas be prepared to move to higher ground quickly.  The
longwave trough finally exits from west to east during the day on
Sunday and we should see the rain finally end for the area by Monday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A large and slow moving line of thunderstorms will blanket
central Kentucky through much of the TAF time period. TEMPOs for
KBMG, KSDF, and KLEX through 10Z will take into account strong
thunderstorms with heavy rains and gusty winds that could lower
surface visibilities to 2-4 SM. Cloud ceilings will fall through
the night to MVFR category by 00Z and fluctuating between MVFR
and IFR during the day before becoming IFR around 00Z. Winds
should diminish during the night from 10-20 kts with occasional
gusts over 30 kts with the stronger thunderstorms to light and
variable during the day on Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM...WFO DDC
LONG TERM...WFO DDC
AVIATION...WFO DDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
320 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-031930-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion-
Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
320 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 /220 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/
THURSDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT  /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana
and central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/louisville on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Flood Watch.

Strong non-thunderstorm winds are expected today, with gusts of 40
to 50 mph expected.

Severe storms are expected this evening through most of the overnight.
Damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail are expected. Strong tornadoes
are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/louisville on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Additional showers and strong storms are expected to continue from Thursday
into the weekend. There is considerable concern for a high-impact,
major rainfall and flooding event across the lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys from Wednesday night through the weekend. Widespread minor
to moderate river flooding is expected, and major river flooding is
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move SW at 40 to 50 MPH

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

CG/BTN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
256 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ENE South Boston      38.60N 85.94W
04/02/2025                   Washington         IN   Emergency Mngr

            Home damaged on Garrison Hollow Road.

1138 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNW Bunker Hill       38.60N 85.89W
04/02/2025                   Washington         IN   Public

            Numerous trees snapped, substantial damage
            to a barn.

0236 AM     Hail             1 N Lexington           38.06N 84.50W
04/03/2025  E1.00 Inch       Fayette            KY   Public

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
319 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 S Campbellsville      37.28N 85.36W
04/03/2025                   Taylor             KY   Emergency Mngr

            Several camping trailers blown over and roof
            blown off a business on Lone Valley Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
331 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0214 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SE Glasgow            36.96N 85.88W
04/03/2025                   Barren             KY   Amateur Radio

            Tree down on a house in Eastern Valley
            Estates.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
337 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Jeffersontown       38.21N 85.55W
04/03/2025                   Jefferson          KY   Public

            Partial building collapse on Ampere Drive.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
339 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE Middletown        38.22N 85.48W
04/03/2025                   Jefferson          KY   Trained Spotter

            Multiple trees down, roof and window damage
            to homes in Beckley Hills subdivision.

&&