Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1204 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1002 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

 - Thunderstorms will bring a low end (level 1-2 of 5) threat of
   severe weather to the area in the overnight into morning hours.
   The area of greatest threat will be generally west of the I-55
   corridor. The main threats from any storms will be damaging
   wind gusts and a few brief tornadoes.

 - Strong onshore winds will result in higher than normal tides
   tonight during the high tide cycle. A few low lying coastal
   roads could become impassable. This threat will decrease as
   tides fall into the morning hours.

 - Some lingering strong winds and rough seas will lead to
   hazardous conditions, especially for small craft, across the
   coastal waters of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi
   tonight. This threat will decrease through the morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Another round of strong weather in the form of thunderstorms is
moving into the area. It should pass through and be east of us by
midday. While the current conditions just west of the CWA are
supporting some thunderstorm activities with lightning, there are
no storms at the severe level. Gusty, but sub-severe, winds are
the main threat and will be most likely west of I-55. Rain
intensities may cause some isolated flash flooding especially in
urban areas. Widespread 4ainfall totals from both rounds Saturday
and early Sunday are still expected to be in the 1-3 inch range
with isolated higher amounts. This rain is actually welcomed as it
will somewhat relieve our near-drought to drought conditions. As
the rain passes and clears into the afternoon and evening expect
lingering cloudy skies, light to breezy winds, and moderate
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through Saturday night)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Upper trough axis is expected to be along the Mississippi-Alabama
border at sunrise Monday. Upper flow becomes northwesterly beyond
that point. A strong northern stream trough will traverse the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday, although the GFS solutions have been a
bit quicker than the ECMWF. There may be just enough moisture
available to squeeze out a few showers, but the more noticeable
change, will be the airmass change for the second half of the week.
Beyond the frontal passage, dry weather is expected with below
normal temperatures. Wednesday and Thursday are unlikely to see high
temperatures get out of the 60s, with overnight lows Thursday and
Friday mornings possibly getting down to around 40 in some of the
usually colder areas. Forecast highs may eventually need to get
bumped down a degree or two on Wednesday, but that's not a
significant enough change to consider a target of opportunity.
/RW,DSS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Second round of TSRA moving just moving into the area as of this
issuance time. It will sweep west to east and clear the area about
18Z. CIGS and VIS will be dependent on location of TSRA and carry
the possibility of brief IFR or lower conditions. As the system
clears the area cloud cover will remain and CIGS will be the
predominant issue, but conditons should remain at least MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

As the frontal system moves out Excercise Caution conditions will
linger with winds at or just above 15 kt in the coastal waters.
Winds should relax by 18Z and end the headline. Monday and Tuesday
should see fairly quiet conditions. A front moving through the
waters Tuesday night into Wednesday will produce widespread
hazardous conditions, with Small Craft Advisories almost certain.
Wouldn't rule out the eventual need for Gale products for
Wednesday into Thursday. /RW,DSS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  65  76  60 /  70  90 100  30
BTR  81  67  80  61 /  80  90  90  20
ASD  80  65  78  61 /  60  70  90  40
MSY  84  71  81  66 /  60  80  90  30
GPT  79  69  78  65 /  60  60  90  60
PQL  81  65  78  61 /  50  40  90  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ066>070-076-
     078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ534-536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1123 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

LAZ035-MSZ068-069-260500-
West Feliciana LA-Wilkinson MS-Amite MS-
1123 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WEST
FELICIANA PARISH, WILKINSON AND WESTERN AMITE COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT CDT
...

At 1122 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Dolorosa to 7 miles west
of Woodville to 8 miles southeast of Fort Adams to 8 miles northwest
of Wakefield. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Centreville, Woodville, Gloster, Dolorosa, and Crosby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for southeastern
Louisiana...and southern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3132 9112 3135 9102 3133 9099 3135 9098
      3135 9089 3123 9088 3104 9102 3090 9153
      3092 9155 3100 9149 3109 9148 3123 9157
      3123 9153 3122 9153 3123 9149 3130 9147
      3137 9123
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 246DEG 30KT 3122 9148 3112 9142 3103 9143 3096
9147

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
157 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

LAZ034>036-MSZ068-069-260745-
East Feliciana LA-Pointe Coupee LA-West Feliciana LA-Wilkinson MS-
Amite MS-
157 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST FELICIANA, EAST
CENTRAL POINTE COUPEE AND NORTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISHES,
WILKINSON AND SOUTHWESTERN AMITE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CDT
...

At 157 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Wakefield, or 14 miles north of St. Francisville,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
New Roads, Jackson, St. Francisville, Centreville, Woodville, Wilson,
Norwood, Wakefield, Spillman, and Dolorosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for southeastern
Louisiana...and southern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3109 9091 3069 9142 3100 9155 3122 9152
      3124 9148 3128 9149 3129 9147 3132 9146
      3132 9142 3133 9139
TIME...MOT...LOC 0657Z 224DEG 28KT 3100 9140

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Frye