Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
621 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

 - Thunderstorms will continue to move eastward, bringing a low
   end (level 1-2 of 5) threat of severe weather to the area
   through the morning hours. The area of greatest threat will be
   generally east of the I-55 corridor. The main threats from any
   storms will be damaging wind gusts and a few brief tornadoes.

 - Strong onshore winds will result in higher than normal tides
   tonight during the high tide cycle. A few low lying coastal
   roads could become impassable. This threat will decrease as
   tides fall into the morning hours.

 - Some lingering strong winds and rough seas will lead to
   hazardous conditions, especially for small craft, across the
   coastal waters of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi
   tonight. This threat will decrease through the morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Another round of strong weather in the form of thunderstorms is
moving into the area. It should pass through and be east of us by
midday. While the current conditions just west of the CWA are
supporting some thunderstorm activities with lightning, there are
no storms at the severe level. Gusty, but sub-severe, winds are
the main threat and will be most likely west of I-55. Rain
intensities may cause some isolated flash flooding especially in
urban areas. Widespread 4ainfall totals from both rounds Saturday
and early Sunday are still expected to be in the 1-3 inch range
with isolated higher amounts. This rain is actually welcomed as it
will somewhat relieve our near-drought to drought conditions. As
the rain passes and clears into the afternoon and evening expect
lingering cloudy skies, light to breezy winds, and moderate
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through Saturday night)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Upper trough axis is expected to be along the Mississippi-Alabama
border at sunrise Monday. Upper flow becomes northwesterly beyond
that point. A strong northern stream trough will traverse the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday, although the GFS solutions have been a
bit quicker than the ECMWF. There may be just enough moisture
available to squeeze out a few showers, but the more noticeable
change, will be the airmass change for the second half of the week.
Beyond the frontal passage, dry weather is expected with below
normal temperatures. Wednesday and Thursday are unlikely to see high
temperatures get out of the 60s, with overnight lows Thursday and
Friday mornings possibly getting down to around 40 in some of the
usually colder areas. Forecast highs may eventually need to get
bumped down a degree or two on Wednesday, but that's not a
significant enough change to consider a target of opportunity.
/RW,DSS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Severe weather associated with eastbound front will sweep west to
east and clear the area about 18Z. CIGS and VIS will be dependent
on location of TSRA and carry the possibility of brief IFR or
lower conditions. As the system clears the area cloud cover will
remain and CIGS will be the predominant issue, but these conditons
should remain at least MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

As the frontal system moves out Excercise Caution conditions will
linger with winds at or just above 15 kt in the coastal waters.
Winds should relax by 18Z and end the headline. Monday and Tuesday
should see fairly quiet conditions. A front moving through the
waters Tuesday night into Wednesday will produce widespread
hazardous conditions, with Small Craft Advisories almost certain.
Wouldn't rule out the eventual need for Gale products for
Wednesday into Thursday. /RW,DSS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  60  74  55 / 100  20  10   0
BTR  80  61  78  57 /  90  10  10   0
ASD  79  60  78  55 / 100  30  10  10
MSY  82  66  81  62 / 100  20   0   0
GPT  78  63  78  58 / 100  50  10  10
PQL  78  61  79  55 / 100  60  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for
     LAZ066>070-076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for
     MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
309 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

MSZ069-260900-
Amite MS-
309 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN AMITE COUNTY
THROUGH 400 AM CDT
...

At 308 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gloster, or 10 miles west of Liberty, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Liberty, Centreville, and Gloster.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for southern
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3116 9072 3101 9098 3110 9106 3123 9106
      3134 9100 3133 9099 3135 9098 3135 9094
TIME...MOT...LOC 0808Z 233DEG 20KT 3113 9098

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Frye

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
403 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

LAZ046-056-057-085-086-260945-
Iberville LA-Western Ascension LA-Assumption LA-St. James LA-
Eastern Ascension LA-
403 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN ASCENSION,
NORTHWESTERN ST. JAMES, SOUTHEASTERN IBERVILLE AND NORTH CENTRAL
ASSUMPTION PARISHES THROUGH 445 AM CDT
...

At 403 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Belle Rose, or near Donaldsonville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gonzales, Donaldsonville, St. Gabriel, White Castle, Sorrento,
Prairieville, Geismar, Carville, Belle Rose, and Paincourtville.

This includes Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 169 and
184.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for southeastern
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3034 9100 3035 9099 3035 9097 3010 9081
      2997 9110 3015 9121
TIME...MOT...LOC 0903Z 231DEG 18KT 3010 9108

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Frye

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
708 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

LAZ039-261245-
Washington LA-
708 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON PARISH THROUGH 745 AM CDT
...

At 708 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing funnel clouds near Enon, or near Franklinton,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Enon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors or to safe harbor and report
your sighting to the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon CDT for southeastern
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 9011 3077 9019 3089 9009 3078 8996
TIME...MOT...LOC 1208Z 227DEG 14KT 3078 9009

FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Frye

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
711 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

LAZ079-080-261245-
Northern St. Tammany LA-Southwestern St. Tammany LA-
711 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ST.
TAMMANY PARISH THROUGH 745 AM CDT
...

At 711 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing funnel clouds over Covington, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Covington and Abita Springs.

This includes Interstate 12 between mile markers 54 and 65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors or to safe harbor and report
your sighting to the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon CDT for southeastern
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3046 8993 3039 9012 3048 9024 3049 9024
      3062 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 1211Z 227DEG 14KT 3047 9011

FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Frye

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
721 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

LAZ064-070-077-078-087>090-261245-
Central Plaquemines LA-Western Orleans LA-Upper St. Bernard LA-
Lower Jefferson LA-Eastern Orleans LA-Upper Plaquemines LA-
Lower St. Bernard LA-Upper Jefferson LA-
721 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ST.
BERNARD, SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS, NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISHES THROUGH 745 AM CDT
...

At 721 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing funnel clouds over Timberlane, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, Chalmette, Marrero, Harvey, Timberlane, Belle Chasse,
Gretna, Westwego, Woodmere, Violet, Terrytown, Meraux, Estelle,
Arabi, and Poydras.

This includes the following Interstates...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 235 and 246.
 Interstate 510 between mile markers 2 and 3.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors or to safe harbor and report
your sighting to the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon CDT for southeastern
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 2986 9017 3007 8999 2998 8981 2996 8980
      2974 9001
TIME...MOT...LOC 1221Z 220DEG 29KT 2987 9004

FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Frye

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
728 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

LAZ039-MSZ077-261300-
Washington LA-Pearl River MS-
728 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHWESTERN PEARL
RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH 800 AM CDT
...

At 728 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing funnel clouds near Bogalusa, moving northeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...If a funnel cloud briefly touches down, minor damage to
         outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bogalusa, Varnado, and Angie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors or to safe harbor and report
your sighting to the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon CDT for southeastern
Louisiana...and southern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3084 8958 3077 8996 3090 9007 3101 8988
      3100 8969
TIME...MOT...LOC 1228Z 239DEG 22KT 3082 8994

FUNNEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Frye