Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1130 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for Central Louisiana and
  Inland Southeast Texas through 6 PM this evening. Additional
  rainfall of 2 to 3 inches with locally heavier amounts will be
  possible along and north of the U.S. 190 corridor.

- A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms expected for portions of
  Central and South Central Louisiana, with a Marginal Risk of
  severe thunderstorms westward across the remainder of the
  forecast area. Damaging straight line winds will be the biggest
  threat.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

No changes to the forecast this morning. Line of showers and
thunderstorms developing over east Texas will continue to move
eastward across the forecast area entering southeast Texas around
11 am and exiting lower Acadiana around 9 pm. Mesoscale forecaster
is looking at a sharp push of warm, moist air up into central
Louisiana by early afternoon that should help increase
thunderstorm intensity.

We will be releasing a special 18z upper air sounding that will
hopefully give us a better idea how the environment is evolving.
At the moment damaging wind gusts and a few quick spin up
tornadoes will be possible.

1 to 3 inches of rain fell overnight and early this morning across
portions of the current flood watch area. This line of
thunderstorms will likely have some high rainfall rates, and thus
the potential for flash flooding will also exist and will keep the
Flood Watch as is.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)

Wx map shows a stationary front over Inland Southeast Texas and Central
Louisiana, with another front/coastal surface trough from the Texas
coast across the coastal waters. Aloft, an upper level disturbance
over Northern Mexico and Texas will continue to interact with these
boundaries. Radar showing scattered to numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms already increasing in areal coverage early this morning.
Temperatures range from the lower to mid 60s for most of the area
south of the stationary front, lower 50s north of the boundary.

High chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning
through the afternoon hours. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of Excessive
Rainfall continues across the Central Louisiana parishes and
counties across Inland Southeast Texas today, with a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 4) across the remainder of the area further south. A
Flood Watch remains in effect for Central Louisiana and Inland
Southeast Texas through 6 PM this evening. Additional rainfall of
2 to 3 inches with locally heavier amounts will be possible along
and north of the U.S. 190 corridor.

Also, a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms expected for portions
of Central and South Central Louisiana, with a Marginal Risk of
severe thunderstorms westward across the remainder of the forecast
area. Damaging straight line winds will be the biggest threat,
with low end chances of a tornado within the slight risk area.

As the mid to upper level trough axis moves east across the area
this evening and overnight, the cold front will push southeast
across the area, bringing colder and drier air across the area,
ending the precipitation after Midnight into early Thursday morning
with lows ranging through the 40s to lower 50s. Despite partial
clearing by Thursday afternoon, the cold air advection expected to
keep afternoon highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Lows by Friday
morning expected to fall in the upper 30s to lower 40s north of
I-10, mid 40s further south.

By Friday afternoon and evening, the cool high pressure expected
to move east of the region, bringing back southerly winds, warmer
temperatures, and clouds back over the region.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)

The next significant mid to upper level trough expected to rapidly
move east across the Midwest southward across Texas Saturday. The
increased moisture and lift expected to bring another significant
round of showers and thunderstorms across the area, followed by a
stronger cold frontal passage. The risk of severe thunderstorms is
increasing, with SPC now outline a 30% chance of severe thunderstorms
for the Central Louisiana parishes and points northeast into
Mississippi, with the 15% chance of severe for the remainder of
the area except the immediate coastal parishes/counties. Details
likely to become clearer on the specific severe weather threats
in the coming days.

After the cold frontal passage late Saturday night, the
precipitation will end with much colder and drier air to move
across the region, with below normal temperatures expected through
the remainder of the period. Another shortwave withing the deep
layer trough over the Central U.S. likely to bring an increased
chance of showers late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

08/DML

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

The immediate concern will be the potential for a line of strong
thunderstorms to move across during the afternoon hours. Used
Tempo groups to try to time when the line of convection will
affect each terminal.

After convection ends, cold air advection cloudiness will move in
behind the frontal boundary with IFR ceilings for the night,
slightly improving to MVFR in the morning.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...

An upper level disturbance over Northern Mexico and Texas will
continue to interact with a surface trough over the Texas coast
and stationary front inland, keeping high chances of showers and
thunderstorms this morning through the evening hours. A cold front
will move through the coastal waters late this evening and
overnight, ending the showers and thunderstorms, with moderate
offshore flow expected for most of Thursday through Friday
morning. As the surface high moves east, onshore flow expected to
resume by Friday afternoon. Another upper level disturbance and
advancing cold front expected to bring another round of showers
and thunderstorms Saturday, with offshore flow to resume by
Sunday.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  41  54  37 / 100  10   0   0
LCH  76  46  59  42 /  80  10   0   0
LFT  80  49  61  44 /  80  50   0  10
BPT  77  46  61  44 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ027>032.

TX...Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...07