River Flood Warning 16, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
430 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for Central Louisiana and
  Inland Southeast Texas through 6 PM this evening. Additional
  rainfall of 2 to 3 inches with locally heavier amounts will be
  possible along and north of the U.S. 190 corridor.

- A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms expected for portions of
  Central and South Central Louisiana, with a Marginal Risk of
  severe thunderstorms westward across the remainder of the
  forecast area. Damaging straight line winds will be the biggest
  threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)

Wx map shows a stationary front over Inland Southeast Texas and Central
Louisiana, with another front/coastal surface trough from the Texas
coast across the coastal waters. Aloft, an upper level disturbance
over Northern Mexico and Texas will continue to interact with these
boundaries. Radar showing scattered to numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms already increasing in areal coverage early this morning.
Temperatures range from the lower to mid 60s for most of the area
south of the stationary front, lower 50s north of the boundary.

High chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue this morning
through the afternoon hours. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of Excessive
Rainfall continues across the Central Louisiana parishes and
counties across Inland Southeast Texas today, with a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 4) across the remainder of the area further south. A
Flood Watch remains in effect for Central Louisiana and Inland
Southeast Texas through 6 PM this evening. Additional rainfall of
2 to 3 inches with locally heavier amounts will be possible along
and north of the U.S. 190 corridor.

Also, a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms expected for portions
of Central and South Central Louisiana, with a Marginal Risk of
severe thunderstorms westward across the remainder of the forecast
area. Damaging straight line winds will be the biggest threat,
with low end chances of a tornado within the slight risk area.

As the mid to upper level trough axis moves east across the area
this evening and overnight, the cold front will push southeast
across the area, bringing colder and drier air across the area,
ending the precipitation after Midnight into early Thursday morning
with lows ranging through the 40s to lower 50s. Despite partial
clearing by Thursday afternoon, the cold air advection expected to
keep afternoon highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Lows by Friday
morning expected to fall in the upper 30s to lower 40s north of
I-10, mid 40s further south.

By Friday afternoon and evening, the cool high pressure expected
to move east of the region, bringing back southerly winds, warmer
temperatures, and clouds back over the region.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)

The next significant mid to upper level trough expected to rapidly
move east across the Midwest southward across Texas Saturday. The
increased moisture and lift expected to bring another significant
round of showers and thunderstorms across the area, followed by a
stronger cold frontal passage. The risk of severe thunderstorms is
increasing, with SPC now outline a 30% chance of severe thunderstorms
for the Central Louisiana parishes and points northeast into
Mississippi, with the 15% chance of severe for the remainder of
the area except the immediate coastal parishes/counties. Details
likely to become clearer on the specific severe weather threats
in the coming days.

After the cold frontal passage late Saturday night, the
precipitation will end with much colder and drier air to move
across the region, with below normal temperatures expected through
the remainder of the period. Another shortwave withing the deep
layer trough over the Central U.S. likely to bring an increased
chance of showers late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

08/DML

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)

Rounds of TSRA will continue for AEX this morning, with IFR to
occasionally LIFR visibilities and ceilings in the stronger
thunderstorms. For the southern terminals BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA, less
coverage of TSRA this morning with MVFR ceilings/visibilities
with most of the heaviest TSRA remaining north of I-10. Expect
brief lower ceilings/visibilities this afternoon through early
evening as a line of TSRA forms along the cold frontal passage.
South to southwesterly winds 12-15 kts by late this morning/afternoon
expected to shift to the northwest after the frontal passage late
this afternoon and evening.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...

An upper level disturbance over Northern Mexico and Texas will
continue to interact with a surface trough over the Texas coast
and stationary front inland, keeping high chances of showers and
thunderstorms this morning through the evening hours. A cold front
will move through the coastal waters late this evening and
overnight, ending the showers and thunderstorms, with moderate
offshore flow expected for most of Thursday through Friday
morning. As the surface high moves east, onshore flow expected to
resume by Friday afternoon. Another upper level disturbance and
advancing cold front expected to bring another round of showers
and thunderstorms Saturday, with offshore flow to resume by
Sunday.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  42  55  37 / 100  20   0   0
LCH  76  48  61  43 /  70  20   0  10
LFT  80  51  61  45 /  70  50   0  10
BPT  76  47  61  45 /  70   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through this afternoon for LAZ027>032.

TX...Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ180-201-259>262.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to midnight CST
     tonight for GMZ472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...08