Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1241 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall and
 a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms through 12Z
 this morning.

- Conditions will improve from west to east today as a low
  pressure system moves across the Ark-La-Tex

- A much cooler airmass will arrive during the middle of the
  coming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

An active weather night is ongoing across southeast TX and south LA,
as a stacked low pressure system moves across the ARK-LA-TEX. The
potential for severe weather will continue through the remainder of
the overnight period, and should begin to largely die down around
sunrise. Until then, all modes of severe weather will be possible,
particularly for our LA parishes, along with the potential for
localized flash flooding.

Today, the surface low will be moving across northern LA/southern AR
with a trailing cold front sweeping through the forecast area
through the afternoon hours. Until the front moves through we could
see some isolated shower activity rotating around the back side of
the low, but for the most cloudy and mild weather is expected with
high temperatures reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s this
afternoon. The remainder of the short term will bring much of the
same, as today's front essentially lays down along the coast for a
brief period Monday into Tuesday before lifting inland again Tuesday
and merging with another front and low in the Southern Plains. Until
then, seasonal temperatures and dry conditions prevail. Rain chances
remain near zero until late Tuesday when the next front arrives.
This boundary will bring our first taste of significantly cooler air
as we head into the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Waking up Wednesday morning it will finally feel like sweater
weather across southeast Texas and south LA, as a significant upper
low takes shape across the eastern CONUS. Wednesday morning lows
will dip into the upper 40s to mid 50s, while daytime highs reach
into the mid 60s to upper 60s as significant CAA takes shape. Below
average temperatures and dry weather continue through the end of the
work week, with Thurs night/Fri morning bringing the coolest
temperatures of the period, ranging from the upper 30s across CENLA
to the low to mid 40s elsewhere. Temperatures begin to slowly
moderate Fri through Sun, but remain near or below normal ranging
from the upper 60s to upper 70s for highs and mid 40s to mid 50s for
lows. With continued CAA aloft and high pressure at the surface, dry
conditions prevail as well. Overall, a very pleasant and welcomed
change is on tap throughout the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

No major updates since the previous TAF package. Only update would
be the bringing timing up slightly as storms have progressed
quicker than previously expected. Otherwise, still expecting
conditions to deteriorate across Acadiana within the next couple
of hours, while conditions slowly improve from the west around the
same time. By 12-14Z most of the strongest storms will be to our
east, while a few isolated showers/storms may continue to rotate
around the low pressure center into the area through the late
morning hours. By the afternoon, all sites will be returning the
VFR with conditions steadily improving.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

A line of showers and storms will progress west to east through
the coastal waters through the next several hours, with conditions
eventually improving from west to east through the mid morning
into the early afternoon hours with the passage of a front. Winds
shift NW to N behind the boundary, remaining fairly light and out
of the N through tomorrow. Light winds continue through Tuesday
until the passage of another front Tuesday evening/night. This
next front will be much more robust with a strong high pressure
ridge building in behind it causing the pressure gradient to
tighten overhead. Winds strengthen significantly overnight Tues
into Wed morning, remaining strong and gusty thereafter into the
later half of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Conditions improve through the morning hours today as a low
pressure system sweep across the Ark-La-Tex. No robust cold/dry
airmass will move in behind the main front, so humid conditions
and isolated rain chances remain in the forecast until Tuesday
when a robust cold front moves through. A much colder, drier
airmass arrives Wednesday and remains through the week, with
elevated fire weather conditions expected on Wednesday immediately
behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  57  76  53 /  40  10   0   0
LCH  81  62  80  60 /  40   0   0   0
LFT  81  62  79  58 /  70  10   0   0
BPT  81  61  82  63 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ073-
     074-241-252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ615-
     616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1257 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 PM     Tornado          3 E Sulphur             30.22N 93.33W
10/25/2025                   Calcasieu          LA   Public

            Seeing considerable damage in the Hollywood
            community of Sulphur. This is likely from
            the tornado.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1259 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 3 SW Cameron            29.77N 93.34W
10/26/2025  M41 MPH          GMZ432             LA   Buoy

            Buoy station CAPL1 Calcasieu Pass, LA.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
106 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

LAZ074-152-252-260645-
Upper Vermilion LA-Lower Vermilion LA-East Cameron LA-
106 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN CAMERON AND WESTERN
VERMILION PARISHES THROUGH 145 AM CDT...

At 106 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lacassine National Wildlife Refuge, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cameron, Grand Chenier, Rockefeller Wildlife Range, Klondike,
Lacassine National Wildlife Refuge, Lowry, Creole, and Rutherford
Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for southwestern
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 2979 9324 3004 9285 3004 9253 2959 9260
TIME...MOT...LOC 0606Z 254DEG 19KT 2991 9297

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Slaughter

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