Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
646 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall and
 a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms today.

- From now until Sunday evening, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches
  with locally higher amounts are expected.

- A much cooler airmass will arrive during the middle of the
  coming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Current conditions are in the upper 60s to lower 70s under
overcast skies. Showers and storms are still on the radar with the
first round of convection slowly clearing the lower Acadiana
area. Isolated showers will persist for some areas, however we can
overall expect a lull in activity from now until the front pushes
through the region tonight into early tomorrow morning. We remain
in both a Slight Risk SWO and ERO for today, as it time wise
covers thru 12Z tomorrow morning. As we are seeing now, there
could be a few isolated showers after it moves through, however it
will taper off a bit faster tomorrow with a cool high pressure
beginning to build in.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Another front is set to move through the region Tuesday into
Wednesday. We could still see some isolated showers and storms
over the day Tuesday, however chances are isolated at best. In the
days following that frontal passage, we will see much cooler
conditions with highs topping out in the mid 60s to lower 70s and
lows bottoming out in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

An ongoing lull in activity will continue through the next few
hours, with conditions steadily deteriorating once again through
the overnight hours from west to east as another line of showers
and storms sweeps across the region. Like last night, these storms
will bring heavy downpours reducing VIS down to a mile or less,
frequent lightning, gusty winds, and reduced CIGs. Timed out this
line as best as possible, with a bit of wiggle room on either side
given the potential for storms to speed up or slow down. After the
main line of storms, some BR with MVFR CIGs/VIS will likely linger
through the early morning hours, with conditions improving through
the late morning/mid day tomorrow. All sites should return to VFR
by 18/19Z tomorrow, with quiet weather expected thereafter.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

A period of stable weather, but still elevated winds will follow
with this initial round of convection, before another line of
showers and storms associated with the main front moves through in
similar fashion late tonight into early tomorrow.

Expect variable, volatile winds, heavy downpours and frequent
lightning with storms.

Conditions should rapidly improve into Sunday afternoon with the
passage of the main front.

A strong high pressure system pushes a very robust cold front thru
the area late Tuesday, turning winds offshore and swiftly increasing
wave heights with its passage into Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Showers and storms are still on the radar with the first round of
convection slowly clearing the lower Acadiana area. Isolated
showers will persist for some areas, however we can overall expect
a lull in activity from now until the front pushes through the
region tonight into early tomorrow morning.

Expect variable, volatile winds, heavy downpours and frequent
lightning with storms.

No robust cold/dry airmass will move in behind the main front, so
humid conditions and isolated rain chances remain in the forecast
until Tuesday when a robust cold front moves through. A much colder,
drier airmass arrives Wednesday and remains thru the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  62  78  56  76 /  90  50  10  10
LCH  67  81  61  80 /  90  50  10   0
LFT  68  81  61  79 /  90  70  10  10
BPT  66  81  60  82 /  90  30   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ241-252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ615.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
906 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

TXZ259-260-260245-
Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
906 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEWTON AND NORTHEASTERN
JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM CDT...

At 906 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Jasper, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Newton, Burkeville, Jamestown, Farrsville, Roganville,
Harrisburg, Mayflower, Stringtown, and Wiergate.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3089 9357 3088 9357 3086 9356 3085 9356
      3085 9357 3083 9355 3082 9357 3081 9356
      3080 9358 3078 9359 3078 9358 3077 9359
      3079 9412 3099 9414 3116 9368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 256DEG 31KT 3089 9397

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Calhoun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
934 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

LAZ027-030-TXZ260-260315-
Beauregard LA-Vernon LA-Northern Newton TX-
934 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL BEAUREGARD...
WESTERN VERNON PARISHES IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND NORTHEASTERN
NEWTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM CDT...

At 934 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Burkeville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
De Ridder, Leesville, Newton, Rosepine, Burkeville, Fort Polk, New
Llano, Burr Ferry, Mayflower, Junction, Stringtown, Wiergate, Evans,
and Pickering.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3085 9381 3110 9375 3127 9321 3074 9318
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 250DEG 35KT 3096 9364

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Calhoun

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1015 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

LAZ030-141-TXZ180-201-259>262-516-260345-
Beauregard LA-Northern Calcasieu LA-Hardin TX-Northern Orange TX-
Southern Newton TX-Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
Southern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
1015 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD AND WEST
CENTRAL CALCASIEU PARISHES...SOUTHEASTERN TYLER...SOUTHWESTERN
NEWTON...EASTERN HARDIN...NORTHERN ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER
COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM CDT...

At 1015 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Silsbee, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lumberton, Silsbee, Kountze, Deweyville, Starks, Evadale,
Mauriceville, Buna, Pine Forest, Lakeview, Caney Head, Weiss Bluff,
Gist, Hartburg, Forest Heights, Old Salem, Wrights Settlement, Devils
Pocket, and Bancroft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3043 9431 3060 9410 3061 9364 3024 9365
      3016 9403 3017 9417 3019 9418 3018 9419
      3019 9419 3019 9421 3018 9422 3019 9432
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 255DEG 32KT 3035 9417

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Calhoun

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