Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1258 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall and
 a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms today.

- From now until Sunday evening, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches
  with locally higher amounts are expected.

- A much cooler airmass will arrive during the middle of the
  coming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Quite the line of showers and stronger line segments is moving into
east Texas at this hour. This will be the first of two rounds of
convection expected to move through today. The line is progged to
arrive to Deep Southeast Texas by roughly 4 to 6 AM; 7 to 9 AM to
the Louisiana state line. Considering the line will be moving
towards the HWY 165 corridor after sunrise, expect a destabilization
of the leading airmass to reinvigorate storms as they move towards
cenLA. Cold-pooled air behind the line should keep it moving rather
progressively and a departure to east of the Atchafalaya should be
roughly 1 to 4 PM.

After a lull (develops west to east behind the line) another round
of storms with the actual front should sweep through in similar
fashion from 8 to 10 PM through sunrise Sunday.

With each line, strong damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours are
most likely. Within these strong wind segments, isolated instances
of spinup tornadoes will be possible. Heavy rainfall is also
expected, however, due to the progressive nature of both rounds,
flooding is not expected. Not enough to warrant the necessity of a
flood watch at this time. However, if dry ground conditions improve
and warrant the need of issuance before the second round comes
through, one may be issued.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Strong high pressure and very cold airmass do not arrive until
the midweek. Under weakness aloft, there could be some very
isolated showers into Tuesday. Wednesday, the high arrives and
washes out any remaining showery or humid mess to bring about much
cooler and drier conditions to end the work week. Daytime high
temps in the low to mid 60s are expected Wednesday and Thursday,
mid to upper 60s by Friday.

Overnight lows in the 40s can be expected Thursday and Friday
mornings.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Conditions will degrade overnight as a prefrontal line of storms
approaches the region. Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are
expected to move through from roughly 6 AM to 4 PM, west to east.
A period of stable air will follow the line, with another round
associated with the main front moving through in similar fashion
from roughly 8 PM to sunrise west to east.

Expect variable, volatile winds, heavy downpours and frequent
lightning with storms.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Wind and sea conditions will further degrade through the morning
hours as a line of prefrontal showers and thunderstorms, some
severe, moves through the region. Storms should reach western waters
6 to 8 AM and depart to the east in the mid afternoon. A period of
stable weather, but still elevated winds will follow thereafter,
before another line of showers and storms associated with the
main front moves through in similar fashion from roughly 8 PM to
sunrise Sunday.

Expect variable, volatile winds, heavy downpours and frequent
lightning with storms.

Conditions should rapidly improve into Sunday afternoon with the
passage of the main front.

A strong high pressure system pushes a very robust cold front thru
the area late Tuesday, turning winds offshore and swiftly increasing
wave heights with its passage into Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Conditions will degrade overnight as a prefrontal line of storms
approaches the region. Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are
expected to move through from roughly 6 AM to 4 PM, west to east.
A period of stable air will follow the line, with another round
associated with the main front moving through in similar fashion
from roughly 8 PM to sunrise west to east.

Expect variable, volatile winds, heavy downpours and frequent
lightning with storms.

No robust cold/dry airmass will move in behind the main front, so
humid conditions and isolated rain chances remain in the forecast
until Tuesday when a robust cold front moves through. A much colder,
drier airmass arrives Wednesday and remains thru the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  62  79  58 /  90  90  70  10
LCH  80  68  81  62 /  90  90  70  10
LFT  80  69  81  62 /  80  90  90  10
BPT  80  67  82  62 / 100  90  50   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073-
     074.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ615.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11