Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1200 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather with periodic showers / storms expected to
  persist for the duration of the work week.

- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall
  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for Severe Weather this
  evening, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Damaging wind gusts and hail
  are the primary threats; tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will be present off and on throughout
much of the work week ahead associated with a stagnant frontal
pattern forecast to meander around the CWA through Friday.

An upper level shortwave trough positioned over the Colorado
Rockies is slowly devolving while yielding it's relative
vorticity and gradually merging with a secondary wave across the
Great Lakes region. This feature will then close off, leaving an
elongated swath of lower pressure heights across the Southwest and
Southern Plains into the midweek. Locally, this evolution results
in upper level divergence as the broader trough retains a
negative tilt to perturbations in the flow.

A stationary boundary loosely set up around the ARKLATEX region
will slowly acquire subsidence behind the front ushering
increasing CAA across the Southern Plains while remaining north of
the forecast area through early Wednesday morning. Progressing
through Wednesday afternoon, guidance brings the frontal boundary
further south toward the TX / LA Coast. This period late tomorrow
night throughout Wednesday has the greatest moisture convergence
over the CWA and is most favorable for widespread risk for
excessive rainfall- which currently ranges southward to the coast from
a Slight to Marginal Risk.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

By Thursday, guidance indicates the surface frontal boundary will
remain stalled along the NW Gulf Coast. Hereafter, specific
details, amounts, and timing of each round of potential convective
showers / storms becomes more nebulous. Moreover, the unsettled
nature of the pattern retains too much uncertainty in the model
guidance. However, it is worth noting, confidence has remained
that the forecast will trend above normal in rainfall through the
remainder of the work week. Highs will build toward the low to
mid 80's. Few interior locations may see temperatures peak closer
to 90°F where pockets of stable, less cloudy conditions occur
during peak heating.

Our troublesome frontal boundary is later forecast to move
offshore by the start of the weekend. While not completely
eliminated from the forecast, PoPs decrease during the upcoming
weekend while highs creep toward the low 90's again.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

A N/S orientate line of storms is pushing across SE TX and will
continue to progress eastward through the next several hours,
eventually exiting to our east later this morning. Ahead of this
line, light winds and a mixture of VFR and MVFR CIGs will
continue. Near/within the line, strong gusty winds, torrential
rainfall ;leading to reduced VIS, lower CIGs, and frequent
lightning will all be possible. Timed the line out at each site
with tempo groups as best as possible, with further amendments
possibly being required later this morning as we see how these
storms progress. Behind the line, light to moderate rainfall will
continue for a bit, followed by improving conditions through the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Winds and seas will keep southerly onshore components throughout
the work week. Widely scattered showers and storms associated
with an unsettled wet pattern to follow from Tuesday onward.
Worth noting guidance trends heavier precipitation down to the
immediate coast and inland locations. That said, periodic gusty
W-NW outflows are possible when clustered thundershowers descend
the lakes and offshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  70  88  69 /  60  50  80  30
LCH  88  74  89  74 /  50  30  50  20
LFT  88  75  89  74 /  40  30  50  20
BPT  89  75  89  74 /  30  40  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1235 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

TXZ180-270630-
Tyler TX-
1235 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN TYLER COUNTY THROUGH
130 AM CDT...

At 1235 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Alabama-Coushatta Reservation, or 10 miles west of
Warren, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Woodville, Warren, Town Bluff, Fred, Spurger, Ivanhoe, and Hillister.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3088 9420 3085 9420 3083 9418 3082 9419
      3079 9418 3079 9415 3074 9413 3073 9414
      3072 9413 3071 9414 3070 9412 3069 9413
      3068 9411 3065 9410 3053 9411 3053 9454
      3078 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0535Z 234DEG 34KT 3062 9459

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1259 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

TXZ180-259-270630-
Northern Jasper TX-Tyler TX-
1259 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN TYLER AND NORTHERN
JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM CDT...

At 1258 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Rockland, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Colmesneil, Rockland, Ebenezer, Browndell, and Sam Rayburn
Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 9447 3111 9406 3112 9404 3113 9404
      3114 9403 3115 9392 3091 9391 3080 9453
TIME...MOT...LOC 0558Z 266DEG 35KT 3092 9429

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
101 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

TXZ180-201-270630-
Hardin TX-Tyler TX-
101 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL TYLER AND HARDIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM CDT...

At 101 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Honey Island, or near Thicket, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor
         objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kountze, Saratoga, Thicket, Wildwood, Batson, Caney Head, Votaw,
Honey Island, and Village Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9454 3054 9455 3054 9414 3019 9437
      3019 9463 3049 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 0601Z 266DEG 34KT 3040 9453

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SD