Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1200 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather with periodic showers / storms expected to
  persist for the duration of the work week.

- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall
  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for Severe Weather this
  evening, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Damaging wind gusts and hail
  are the primary threats; tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will be present off and on throughout
much of the work week ahead associated with a stagnant frontal
pattern forecast to meander around the CWA through Friday.

An upper level shortwave trough positioned over the Colorado
Rockies is slowly devolving while yielding it's relative
vorticity and gradually merging with a secondary wave across the
Great Lakes region. This feature will then close off, leaving an
elongated swath of lower pressure heights across the Southwest and
Southern Plains into the midweek. Locally, this evolution results
in upper level divergence as the broader trough retains a
negative tilt to perturbations in the flow.

A stationary boundary loosely set up around the ARKLATEX region
will slowly acquire subsidence behind the front ushering
increasing CAA across the Southern Plains while remaining north of
the forecast area through early Wednesday morning. Progressing
through Wednesday afternoon, guidance brings the frontal boundary
further south toward the TX / LA Coast. This period late tomorrow
night throughout Wednesday has the greatest moisture convergence
over the CWA and is most favorable for widespread risk for
excessive rainfall- which currently ranges southward to the coast from
a Slight to Marginal Risk.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

By Thursday, guidance indicates the surface frontal boundary will
remain stalled along the NW Gulf Coast. Hereafter, specific
details, amounts, and timing of each round of potential convective
showers / storms becomes more nebulous. Moreover, the unsettled
nature of the pattern retains too much uncertainty in the model
guidance. However, it is worth noting, confidence has remained
that the forecast will trend above normal in rainfall through the
remainder of the work week. Highs will build toward the low to
mid 80's. Few interior locations may see temperatures peak closer
to 90°F where pockets of stable, less cloudy conditions occur
during peak heating.

Our troublesome frontal boundary is later forecast to move
offshore by the start of the weekend. While not completely
eliminated from the forecast, PoPs decrease during the upcoming
weekend while highs creep toward the low 90's again.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

A N/S orientate line of storms is pushing across SE TX and will
continue to progress eastward through the next several hours,
eventually exiting to our east later this morning. Ahead of this
line, light winds and a mixture of VFR and MVFR CIGs will
continue. Near/within the line, strong gusty winds, torrential
rainfall ;leading to reduced VIS, lower CIGs, and frequent
lightning will all be possible. Timed the line out at each site
with tempo groups as best as possible, with further amendments
possibly being required later this morning as we see how these
storms progress. Behind the line, light to moderate rainfall will
continue for a bit, followed by improving conditions through the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Winds and seas will keep southerly onshore components throughout
the work week. Widely scattered showers and storms associated
with an unsettled wet pattern to follow from Tuesday onward.
Worth noting guidance trends heavier precipitation down to the
immediate coast and inland locations. That said, periodic gusty
W-NW outflows are possible when clustered thundershowers descend
the lakes and offshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  70  88  69 /  60  50  80  30
LCH  88  74  89  74 /  50  30  50  20
LFT  88  75  89  74 /  40  30  50  20
BPT  89  75  89  74 /  30  40  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...17