Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1213 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this evening,
  potential for a strong to severe storm

- Greater chance for severe thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon
  and evening

- Brief warming trend Mon. and Tue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 416 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The main concern in the short term is the chance for a
strong to severe thunderstorm this evening and Saturday. For this
evening, expect any convection to hold off until after 5pm CT as the
LLJ kicks in, however several models have this LLJ fairly weak and a
little east of the CWA leading to lower confidence in storm
development. If convection develops it will be near a stationary
front across northwest Nebraska and then spread eastward. There is
good moisture convergence out ahead of the front, MU CAPE values
around 1500-2000 J/kg +, although forcing is weak which leads to
lower confidence in storm development. The setup is fairly
conditional, however given the environment if a storm was to go up
it has a favorable environment for a strong to severe storm to
sustain itself once it develops, across the northern Sandhills.

Saturday looks to be the greatest potential for scattered
thunderstorm to develop. The expected mode of storm development is
supercellular and would expect development to be fairly rapid. MU
CAPE is around 1900 to 3000 J/kg with 0-6km shear around 35-50 kts
along with lapse rates of 6.5 to 7 C/km. Expect any supercell to be
capable of large hail, which will be the main hazard, with the
secondary hazard of damaging winds. Storms could also have the
potential for localized heavy rainfall with pwats around l.5 inches
for the area. There is also the risk for tornadic development as
well this would be in the vicinity of where the warm front exist. At
this time there is some uncertainty on how far north the frontal
boundary will move.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 416 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Temperatures will warm up early in the week as a upper
level ridge builds in across the Central CONUS with highs reaching
the 90s Mon. and Tue. Flow starts to turn more quasi-zonal mid-week
with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. As for precipitation
chances in the long term there will be low-end daily
precipitation chances as weak disturbances move across the High
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will keep out of both terminals
tonight, but some lowering ceilings are expected across northern
Nebraska around sunrise Saturday morning. More widespread showers
and storms returns by late Saturday afternoon. While confidence
still remains low on development locations, latest guidance suggests
both KLBF and KVTN could be impacted by these storms. Reductions in
visibility as well as strong, erratic winds and hail will be
possible. Conditions gradually improve by late evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
427 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-192130-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
427 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 /327 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible this
evening across western and north central Nebraska. The main threat
will be hail and damaging winds, but can't rule out a tornado,
especially east of HWY 83.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Wednesday across the
area. For Saturday, isolated to scattered strong to severe supercell
storms are possible across western and north central Nebraska in the
afternoon into the evening. The main hazards will be large hail and
strong winds with a secondary threat of localized heavy rainfall and
even a tornado can't be ruled out. Beyond Saturday night, the severe
threat is uncertain.

Very warm temperatures return next week with heat indices
approaching 100 across portions of north central and into central
Nebraska through at least Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1054 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

NEZ010-028-029-190445-
Wheeler NE-Holt NE-Garfield NE-
1054 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN GARFIELD...SOUTH
CENTRAL HOLT AND WESTERN WHEELER COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 PM CDT...

At 1054 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Amelia, or 19 miles northeast of Burwell, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ericson, Amelia, Sunfish Lake, Cumminsville, Four Corners, Buffalo
Flats, Goose Lake State Wildlife Management Area, and Gables.

This includes Highway 281 between mile markers 148 and 163.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4197 9922 4225 9903 4214 9848 4174 9864
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 293DEG 21KT 4204 9897

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1112 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

NEZ026>028-190500-
Loup NE-Garfield NE-Blaine NE-
1112 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOUP...SOUTHWESTERN GARFIELD AND
NORTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1112 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Brewster, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Taylor, Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area, Fox Bayou, Almeria
Meadow State Wildlife Management Area, Virginia Smith Dam, Hannamon
Bayou Campground, Kent Diversion Dam State Wildlife Management Area,
Homestead Knolls Campground, Horseshoe Bend Lake, Almeria, Nunda
Shoal Campground, Deverre, and Valley View Flat Campground.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 123 and 145.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4192 9981 4208 9973 4208 9956 4190 9904
      4175 9918 4175 9939
TIME...MOT...LOC 0412Z 298DEG 27KT 4197 9964

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1141 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

NEZ028-029-190530-
Wheeler NE-Garfield NE-
1141 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES
THROUGH 1230 AM CDT...

At 1140 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles southwest of Ewing to near Ericson to
near Fort Hartsuff State Park. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Burwell, Bartlett, Ericson, Virginia Smith Dam, Cumminsville, Four
Corners, Pibel Lake State Recreation Area, Buffalo Flats, Deverre,
and Gables.

This includes Highway 281 between mile markers 132 and 157.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 9830 4174 9921 4197 9921 4208 9882
      4208 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 310DEG 16KT 4211 9850 4183 9871 4181 9899

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Brown

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1204 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 PM     Hail             4 NW Burwell            41.83N 99.19W
07/18/2025  M1.00 Inch       Garfield           NE   Trained Spotter

&&

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
156 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

NEZ006-007-009-010-190800-
Holt NE-Rock NE-Keya Paha NE-Boyd NE-
156 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ROCK...NORTHWESTERN HOLT...
SOUTHEASTERN KEYA PAHA AND SOUTHWESTERN BOYD COUNTIES THROUGH 300 AM
CDT...

At 155 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Newport, or 13 miles east of Bassett, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bassett, Atkinson, Stuart, Newport, Dustin, Mariaville, Pony Lake,
Sybrant, and Twin Lakes State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 162 and 182.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 253 and 297.
 Highway 12 near mile marker 107.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4228 9963 4267 9967 4295 9898 4232 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 0655Z 242DEG 57KT 4262 9928

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
331 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

NEZ010-028-029-190930-
Wheeler NE-Holt NE-Garfield NE-
331 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GARFIELD...
SOUTHEASTERN HOLT AND NORTHERN WHEELER COUNTIES THROUGH 430 AM CDT...

At 331 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chambers, or 14 miles southwest of O'Neill, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
O'Neill, Ewing, Chambers, Page, Inman, Emmet, Knievels Corner,
Sunfish Lake, and Goose Lake State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 296 and 328.
 Highway 281 between mile markers 155 and 187.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4205 9892 4247 9900 4256 9830 4205 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0831Z 262DEG 37KT 4228 9879

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH