Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
434 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop this afternoon
  and evening

- Hot temperatures Monday and Tuesday

- Another chance of marginal severe thunderstorms on Sunday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

The main concern will be the continued thunderstorm development
this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will continue to develop
late this afternoon with latest CAMs showing development both
across western and north central Nebraska and a secondary
location off the off the higher terrain in the Panhandle. Steep
lapse rates, MU CAPE values around 3000 J/kg and deep layer
shear around 45 to 60 kts by late afternoon/evening present a
favorable environment for large hail, increasing confidence in
seeing hail 2" or greater with supercell storms. Some of the
hodographs are also suggesting the potential for tornadic
development as well into the early evening hours. There is also
some suggestion that strong winds in excess of 70 mph may be
possible with some of the strongest supercells, especially
across southwest Nebraska. A LLJ will also kick in later this
evening and help aid in sustaining supercell thunderstorms.
Expect the bulk of the thunderstorms to be out of the area
before midnight tonight.

For Sunday there is the potential of a few isolated
thunderstorms, however confidence remains low in thunderstorm
development at this time.

There is the potential for some patchy fog to develop Sunday
morning across portions of the Sandhills, at this time fog
potential does not look to be widespread, but could see a few
locations have visibility lower than 1 mile.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

A ridge will build in across the central CONUS early in the
week, Monday and Tuesday with temperatures warming into the
90s. There is the potential for heat indices to reach near 100,
but confidence is low at the moment and will continue to monitor
as heat headlines may be needed if confidence in higher heat
indices increase.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Lingering patchy fog and low clouds will persist through mid
afternoon across portions of the northern Sandhills including
KVTN terminal with IFR or lower conditions possible. Late
afternoon and evening there will be scattered thunderstorms
possible, some of which may contain large hail and strong winds,
that may be erratic at times, across western and north central
Nebraska, including KVTN and KLBF terminals. Storms should
generally be out of the area by midnight. There is a chance for
patchy fog again Sunday morning across western and north
central Nebraska and may impact both forecast terminals.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Gomez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
435 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-202145-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
435 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 /335 PM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A slight (level 2 of 5) risk of severe storms are possible late this
afternoon and evening across much of western and north central
Nebraska. The main threat will be hail (2+ inches) and damaging
winds
(75+ mph), but a few tornadoes may also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Wednesday across the area.
On Sunday, a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe storms are
possible across the entire outlook area from late afternoon into the
evening. Beyond Sunday night, the severe threat is uncertain.

Very warm temperatures return on Monday and Tuesday with heat
indices approaching 100 across portions of north central and into
central Nebraska.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
354 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     Hail             5 W Stapleton           41.48N 100.61W
07/19/2025  M2.75 Inch       Logan              NE   CO-OP Observer

            Baseball size hail reported from COOP
            Observer.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
413 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     Hail             8 SW Stapleton          41.36N 100.56W
07/19/2025  E2.75 Inch       Lincoln            NE   Public

            Report from mPING: Baseball (2.75 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
415 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     Hail             8 SW Gandy              41.36N 100.52W
07/19/2025  E4.00 Inch       Lincoln            NE   Public

            Report from mPING: Grapefruit (4.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
455 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     Hail             14 W Tryon              41.56N 101.22W
07/19/2025  M1.75 Inch       McPherson          NE   Trained Spotter

&&

Brown

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
458 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     Hail             12 W Tryon              41.55N 101.19W
07/19/2025  M3.00 Inch       McPherson          NE   Trained Spotter

&&

Brown