Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
632 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe potential and locally heavy rainfall today and Tuesday
  is the main concern in the near term.

- Heat becomes a concern by the of the week, especially Friday
  through Sunday when highs in the 90s to lower 100s are
  expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Scattered supercell thunderstorm development is expected late this
afternoon along/near stalled front located across central into
southwest Nebraska. Strong to extreme surface based CAPE has
developed near this boundary due to the combination of steepening
mid-level lapse rates and moisture/dew points pooling near the
boundary. CAPE values are exceeding 4000 J/KG in this moist/warm
environment. Deep layer shear is more than adequate to sustain
updraft organization once any capping can be overcome. As surface
low pressure continues to deepen across northeast Colorado late this
afternoon into the evening, low-level flow should remain backed to
the southeast. This could locally enhance the tornado threat with
any storm near or on the boundary. In addition, the large CAPE, steep
mid-level lapse rates, and overall deep shear will be supportive of
large to very large hail.

Other thunderstorms will organize across the Panhandle within
favorable upslope environment late this afternoon. These will
quickly organize and surge eastward along and just north of the
above mentioned stalled boundary. Very strong winds may accompany
this line (with gusts of 75 mph possible). Will have to watch for
any interaction with the cells that develop ahead of this line near
the boundary late this afternoon/early this evening.

Also of concern will be the potential for heavy rainfall tonight. This
would most likely occur with any slow moving supercell development
along the boundary late this afternoon and early evening.

More rainfall and storms are possible Tuesday as another shortwave
crosses the area. The severe weather threat is more uncertain
compared to today. Abundant cloud cover with the stationary front
located to our south in Kansas may keep the better focus for severe
to the south. However, if enough recovery occurs could then another
round of stronger storms moving southeastward across the area off
the high plains will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Heights will rise as ridging aloft builds across the western CONUS
Wednesday through the week. This upper level ridging will translate
eastward across the region Thursday through Sunday. This will likely
bring an end to the severe weather/convection threat but increase
the heat threat. Temperatures and heat indicies reach near advisory
levels (>100 degrees) Friday and Saturday across portions of the
area. The ridge appears to begin to break down the first of next
week. Overall looks to be a brief period of hot weather...as
temperatures should cool some next week with the break down in the
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Widespread thunderstorm development is expected this evening,
and these storms will persist into tonight. Inside
thunderstorms, brief MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds
are expected. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail into tonight.

By early tomorrow morning, stratus development is expected in
the wake of thunderstorms, with MVFR CIGs overspreading western
and southwest Nebraska. This will persist into early tomorrow
afternoon.

Winds remain east-northeast outside of thunderstorms through
tomorrow evening, at around 10 to 15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Brown

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
336 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172045-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
336 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 /236 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Late this afteroon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop along
a stalled frontal boundary late this afternoon into the evening.
The main concerns will be very large hail up to tennis ball size,
damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two. Locally heavy rain will
be possible but widespread flooding is not expected. The area for
development appears to favor portions of the southern Sandhills,
central and into southwest Nebraska.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to roll in across the
Panhandle into western and southwest Nebraska this evening. Strong,
damaging winds to 75 mph and large hail will be the main threat with
these storms.

The combination of afternoon high temperatures in the low to middle
90s and muggy conditions will push heat index values into the upper
90s for southwest through central Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are likely to move in from the
west as early as late afternoon Tuesday but more likely during the
evening hours. Storms may become strong to severe with damaging
winds and heavy rain the main concerns but isolated large hail
possible as well. The heavy rain potential will likely continue
through much of the evening into early Wednesday morning. A few
locations could see rainfall amounts approaching 2" by Wednesday
morning.

Temperatures climb by late week as afternoon highs reach the upper
90s to lower 100s for both Friday and Saturday. Combined with the
humidity, heat indices are forecast to reach the triple digits for
portions of the southwest through central Nebraska.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Taylor

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
730 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     Hail             5 E Dickens             40.84N 100.90W
06/16/2025  E2.50 Inch       Lincoln            NE   Storm Chaser

&&

Brown

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