Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
218 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will persist through Friday, followed
  by below normal temperatures over the weekend.

- The potential for showers and thunderstorms continues at times
  through Saturday night.

- Some storms this afternoon and evening could be strong with gusty
  winds and heavy rain the primary threats.

- Some of the storms on Thursday could be strong to severe, with
  gusty to damaging winds and heavy rain the primary threats.

- Forecast confidence in expected weather, especially
  precipitation chances, is extremely poor from the second half of
  this weekend into the middle of next week. For this reason, the
  forecast sticks closely to the NBM during this period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 214 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
the overnight as a shortwave moving through southwest flow aloft and
a warm front moves north toward the Ohio River. There is some risk
for a few of these storms to trend on the strong side, especially in
our northwestern counties, but a pulse severe storm or two will also
be possible pretty much anywhere across the forecast area as
moderate instability develops to the south of a retreating warm
front this afternoon and evening.

Any partial clearing overnight will result in fog development,
especially in river valleys and where showers and storms occur this
afternoon and evening. Models continue toward a shorter duration in
lesser PoPs late tonight into the first part of Thursday as the next
system quickly approaches Thursday, bringing another chance for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Southwest
mid-level flow will be stronger than today, warranting an increased
(Slight Risk) probability for a few severe storms, especially closer
to I-75, where the better instability will be located.

Showers and thunderstorm chances diminish slightly Thursday night as
a shortwave departs to the northeast while the next system drops
southeast upstream over the Mississippi Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025

Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Friday through Saturday
night as an amplified upper trough approaches the area Friday and
then pushes a cold front across the area Saturday.

Models have begun to diverge for how the rest of the period will
play out. The GFS has surface high pressure building into the region
quickly Saturday evening leading to drier weather for the rest of
the weekend into early next week. The ECMWF is the opposite as it
keeps PoP chances over the area through the weekend into early next
week as the amplified upper trough over the area Saturday closes off
into a quasi-stationary upper low over the Mid-Lower Ohio River
Valley. Opted to remain with the NBM since there's been a notable
degradation in forecast confidence since this time yesterday.

Overall, the forecast period is forecast to be a rather wet and
stormy period. Temperatures are forecast to range from the mid-70s
to low-80s with overnight lows ranging from the upper-40s to low-
60s. A relative cool-down is expected for next weekend behind a
departing cold front but will warm back into the upper-70s for
Monday and continuing for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated through the period as a warm front
lifts toward the Ohio River this afternoon into this evening. The
exceptions to VFR conditions will be during periods of showers
and thunderstorms which are expected to continue to develop and
move northeast across the area, and with any potential fog
formation between 06z and 13z late tonight into Thursday morning.
Confidence in fog impacting terminals was too low to include in
the TAFs with this package, but may need to be added in later
packages or updates. Some TEMPO and PROB30 groups were used to
cover chances for thunder during peak heating into the overnight,
as well as again toward the end of the TAF period as the next
round of showers and storms develop during the day Thursday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC/VORST
AVIATION...CMC

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