Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
303 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will persist through Friday, followed
  by below normal temperatures over the weekend.

- The potential for showers and thunderstorms arrives this
  afternoon and continues at times through early Saturday.

- Some storms late this afternoon and evening may be strong to
  severe, with strong to damaging winds and heavy rain the primary
  threats. Hail or a brief spinup tornado cannot be ruled out.

- Some of the thunderstorms on Thursday could be strong, with
  gusty winds and heavy rainfall the primary threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025

CAMS are in excellent agreement on the current MCS traversing out
of Missouri into southern Illinois and far western Kentucky
combining with new downstream convection over central and northern
Kentucky to move across the forecast area this evening. By that
time, a moderately unstable environment may exist across western
and northwestern parts of the forecast area, with CAPE values of
2000 to 3000 J/kg possible. Additionally, 25 to 35 kts of
effective wind shear will support the potential for strong to
severe storms, with the highest risk along and north of Interstate
64, with decreasing risk toward the Virginia border. Strong to
damaging winds will be the primary severe risk, with large hail a
secondary threat. Heavy rainfall will also be possible, but with
no impact on area streams or rivers expected. An isolated tornado
also cannot be completely ruled out, but is not expected.

Thunderstorm activity gradually diminishes after midnight as the
cold front gradually moves into northeastern and east-central
Kentucky from the north, with widespread low ceilings and light
rain/showers expected by Wednesday morning across the north, with
potential residual showers across the southern counties. The front
stalls across the central part of the forecast area by Wednesday
afternoon before lifting north as a warm front late Wednesday
into Wednesday ahead of an approaching upper trough that will pass
Thursday.

With the front over the forecast area Wednesday, another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected, with low to moderate
instability again expected by late morning into the afternoon. A
passing shortwave late in the morning into the afternoon may
provide just enough shear for a stronger storm or two to develop
north of a Somerset-to-Salyersville line within an overall
environment of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Damaging winds would again be the primary threat.

A brief reprieve from shower and thunderstorm activity is possible
late Wednesday into the first half of Thursday as ridging builds
ahead of the approaching upper disturbance that will cross the
area Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025

An energetic upper trough lifts northeast out of Texas through the
Ohio River Valley Thursday into Thursday evening, with an
amplified upper trough and second cold front following about 24
hours later Friday night into early Saturday. This will bring
continued unsettled weather to the region with several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Friday night. The
Thursday threat will be accompanied by a cold front and will bring
with it at least some threat for strong to severe storms, with
damaging winds again the primary threat, but it is looking
possible that an isolated strong storm or two will be possible
even on Friday if sufficient moisture advection can occur behind
the Thursday cold front passage.

A much cooler and drier regime builds across the area for the
weekend behind the departing cold front Saturday morning, with
temperatures below normal for the weekend. After bottoming out
Saturday and Saturday night, temperatures gradually rise back
toward normal into early next week. However, there may be some
frost potential in some of the deeper sheltered valleys in the
northeastern part of the forecast area Saturday night and perhaps
again Sunday night, though this is very low confidence at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025

VFR conditions will likely prevail through 00z but with gusty
southwest winds, though there will be an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms after ~20z and lasting into the early
evening which could cause brief restrictions to IFR or lower
conditions. After 23z-00z, widespread shower and thunderstorm
coverage is expected through around 03z-05z, with a higher
likelihood of MVFR or lower conditions. Any thunderstorms would
bring the potential for wind gusts to 30 kts or higher. As the
lower levels begin to saturate prevailing MVFR or even some IFR
should develop from north to south after 06z, with some question
as to whether they would reach KSJS, KLOZ, and KSME. It is also
possible another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms
moves east across southern parts of the forecast area after 06z,
impacting one or both of KLOZ and KSME, and perhaps KJKL. Cigs
should gradually improve especially in the south toward the end of
the TAF period as mixing gradually increases.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC

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