River Flood Warning 13, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
818 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rainfall, along with a round or two of thunderstorms,
  today and tonight could lead to significant flash flooding and
  river flooding.

- Snow showers and linger moisture freezing to roadway could lead
  to slippery travel at some locations Sunday evening and night.

- A moderate to heavy accumulating snowfall is possible for the
  middle of the upcoming work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2025

Moderate, to at times, heavy rainfall continues to stream
eastward across southern Kentucky/northern Tennessee with lighter
rain further north. Embedded lightning has been observed at times
near the Tennessee border. Temperatures have wet-bulbed down in
the 30s to near 40 east of I-75 and generally in the low to mid
40s further west. Southeastward trends in the axis of heaviest
precipitation in the hourly HRRR have been concerning -- as the
warm front apparently struggles to lift northward through the CWA.
We will continue to assess the situation as the 12z model suite
comes in over the next several hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2025

***HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOODING/RIVER FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND***

At 945z, most of eastern Kentucky was still dry with temperatures
ranging from the mid 30s in the north to around 50 near Lake
Cumberland. Dew points range in the 10s and 20s. Satellite and
observations show clouds continuing to thicken as regional radar
mosaic shows a large area of rain with embedded thunderstorms
congealing and moving east along the KY/TN border. A few leading
showers are just entering the Lake Cumberland area south of an
east-west oriented surface trough nearly bisecting Kentucky from
east west from Owensboro to Pikeville. Additional less intense
shower activity is moving east across the Lower Ohio Valley on
the northern side of the surface trough and impacting locations
north of I-64. The surface trough extends westward through the
Ozarks to a developing, elongated ~1005 mb surface leeside low
extending from central Kansas to northeastern New Mexico. At the
upper levels, the low pressure's parent trough is deepening as it
passes over the Four Corners Region. Ahead of the surface low, an
impressive surge of moisture is streaming northward from the Gulf
of America and into the Lower and Mid-Mississippi Valley on a 50
to 60 knot 850 mb jet.

Today...
Convection will expand rapidly eastward across the JKL CWA
through 12z as isentropic ascent increases over the Coalfields in
response to intensifying upper level divergence in the right
entrance region of a broad 300mb jet over the eastern Great
Lakes/Mid Atlantic. The most widespread and heaviest convection,
with possible embedded thunder, is expected to initially be
positioned over southern Kentucky and Tennessee after onset this
morning, with lighter activity further north. As the surface low
shifts from the Red River Valley of the South to the Ozarks late
in the day, model guidance broadly shows the west-east oriented
band of heavier rainfall gradually lifting north across the CWA
ahead of the system's surface warm front. Most of the guidance
would suggest that the warm front lifts north of the Mountain
Parkway and most likely north of the I-64 corridor as well,
leaving eastern Kentucky in open warm sector with a relative lull
in the rainfall. If this currently favored ideal scenario
materializes as modeled, this would give small streams and creeks
a few to several hours to recede until the surface low rides up
the Ohio River late tonight and drags a powerful cold front
through eastern Kentucky. Less ideal scenarios (an also less
likely) would suggest a warm front that is slower to lift through
eastern Kentucky, lingering the first period of heavy rain and
reducing the length of any lull this evening. Widespread rainfall
amounts of 1.25 to 2.50 inches can be expected in this initially
round of rainfall with locally higher amounts possible.
Temperatures will gradually warm through the day reaching the
lower 50s along the I-64 corridor to around 60 near Lake
Cumberland.

Tonight...
The RAP13 favors southwesterly 850mb winds strengthening to around
70 kts in the warm sector this evening. While surface wind gusts
to 40 mph or stronger are possible atop the higher mountains near
the Virginia and Tennessee border, relatively stable conditions in
the boundary layer should be inhibitive of gusts stronger than
about 25 mph at most lower-elevation locations, as per BUFKIT
mixed-layer momentum transfer values. While the low-level jet
shouldn't cause widespread strong surface winds, it will aid in a
low-end severe weather threat across areas near and west of I-75
as a squall line attending a pre-frontal surface trough crosses
the area after 6z. The primary severe concern will be damaging
wind gusts, though there is also a very small spinup tornado
threat, mainly over Wayne County. While this line of storms will
be moving quickly, it will be capable of dropping a quick 0.75 to
1.50 inch of rainfall (as per 15/00z HREF LPMM) on top of
saturated conditions from the earlier rainfall, thus exacerbating
any ongoing areal flooding from earlier in the day, causing a
renewed flash flood threat, and enhancing the potential for
elevated stages along the mainstem rivers. The overall axis of
heaviest rain has shifted a few 10s of miles back to the southeast
on this forecast cycle, warranting mention of a widespread 2 to 4
inches of rainfall across the forecast area by Sunday morning. In
a reasonable worst-case scenario, the HREF ensemble max rainfall
amounts range from around 5 inches adjacent to the LMK/JKL border
to 2.5 inches over Pike County. Some of the heaviest rainfall is
currently projected to fall over the basins of the Red,
Rockcastle, and Licking Rivers and Triplett, Slate Creek, Buck,
and Rock Lick Creeks. Temperatures are expected to peak in the
upper 50s to lower 60s at most locations overnight just ahead of
the squall line.

Sunday...
Mainstem rivers and creeks will be on the rise across all
of eastern Kentucky on Sunday with flood stages likely to be
breached at many locations. Meanwhile, temperatures will be plunging
through the 40s and into the 30s after early morning highs in the
50s. After the steadier rains end early, a resurgence in
upslope/convective snow showers is expected by later in the
afternoon and evening. Accumulations should be minimal, generally
a few tenths of an inch or less at most locations and confined to
grassy and elevated surfaces during the daylight hours. However, up
to an inch of accumulation is possible through 7 PM over the
highest mountaintops(e.g. Big Black Mountain).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2025

As the system that is currently expected to drop widespread 2-4
inches of rain across Kentucky moves north and east by Sunday night,
temperatures continue to fall into the lower 20s. Flurries and snow
showers on the back end of the system fall through the overnight
hours. Snowfall of up to half an inch is possible, approaching 1
inch across the highest mountains.

Monday will be dry and cool with highs in the low 30s across the
north and upper 30s across the south. Clouds will be decreasing as
the morning and day progresses. Winds will be fairly light out of
the west. Monday night, lows return to the low 20s for most, with
upper teens across the north.

Tuesday, an upper level low will descend out of the Rocky Mountain
region into the Central Plains. While the day will remain dry,
expect increasing clouds, especially after sunset, with a chance of
snow showers increasing Tuesday night, Wednesday, ending mid-day
Thursday. Measurable snow will be possible with this system, however
the upper level low that causes this has yet to make it on shore, in
the west, for better data sampling. Tuesday through Thursday
temperatures fall as colder air works into the region. Highs Tuesday
are forecast to range in the low 30s across the north to mid 40s
across the south. By Thursday, highs could be in the mid 20s, with
lows Thursday night in the single digits. The cold temperatures
Thursday night are directly tied to the models anticipating fresh
measurable snow on the ground at night. Friday and Saturday drier
weather returns to eastern Kentucky  with highs returning closer to
normal Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2025

Conditions are worsening rapidly this morning as rainfall quickly
spreads across eastern Kentucky. The rain and mainly MVFR/IFR
conditions (locally worse) will linger into the afternoon before
tapering/improving from south to north toward 00z as a warm
frontal boundary gradually lifts north toward the I-64 corridor.
Some isolated thunder is also possible within the heavier activity
though confidence in location and probability remains too low for
a PROB30 inclusion. Another band of showers and possible
thunderstorms is expected to sweep from west-to-east overnight
with a return for low ceilings and visibilities at locations which
experienced temporary improvement during the evening. Southeast
to south winds at 5 to 10 kts are expected today with stronger
wind gusts to 20 to 25 kts possible in the warm sector south of
KJKL this evening into tonight. Just off the sfc as a LLJ
transports moisture in at the lower levels, winds will increase
from the south to south southwest at upwards of 40kt to 50kt
leading to a threat of LLWS at least at times for the entire area
through the end of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON/JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
435 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-160915-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
435 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of heavy rainfall, including thunderstorms, are expected to
soak eastern Kentucky today and tonight. Widespread rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches are expected. However, in locations where heavier
showers and thunderstorms are more persistent, rainfall totals could
approach or exceed 5 inches and cause scattered to numerous instances
of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

As runoff from heavy rainfall enters the larger creeks and rivers,
significant rises are likely to lead to flooding.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected on Sunday while temperatures
back to near or below freezing.

Snow showers and freezing of lingering moisture on roadways may lead
slick spots and black ice at some locations Sunday evening and
night.

A moderate to heavy accumulating snow is possible next Tuesday night
through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report incidents of flooding this
weekend.

GEERTSON/GINNICK

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