Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Jackson, KY

538 
WGUS73 KJKL 152143
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
443 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

KYC025-065-071-109-115-119-129-133-153-159-189-193-195-203-237-
160045-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-250216T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Breathitt KY-Estill KY-Floyd KY-Jackson KY-Johnson KY-Knott KY-
Lee KY-Letcher KY-Magoffin KY-Martin KY-Owsley KY-Perry KY-Pike
KY-Rockcastle KY-Wolfe KY-
443 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EST THIS 
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ESTILL, SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON, SOUTHERN 
MARTIN, ROCKCASTLE, BREATHITT, FLOYD, JACKSON, NORTHERN KNOTT, 
SOUTHERN LEE, NORTHEASTERN LETCHER, CENTRAL MAGOFFIN, OWSLEY, 
NORTHWESTERN PERRY, PIKE AND SOUTHEASTERN WOLFE COUNTIES...

At 443 PM EST, local law enforcement reported heavy rain across the 
warned area. Between 1.5 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Flash 
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Pikeville, Prestonsburg, Mount Vernon, Jackson, Salyersville, 
  Beattyville, McKee, Booneville, Boone, Mason, Simpson, Estill, 
  Coal Run Village, Elkhorn City, Wheelwright, Martin, Pippa Passes, 
  Forest Hills, Wayland and Allen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 8445 3747 8437 3754 8435 3758 8355
      3769 8351 3777 8272 3769 8257 3777 8233
      3755 8213 3754 8197 3729 8232 3719 8258
      3728 8267 3743 8322 3735 8340 3727 8397
      3733 8416 3734 8412 3734 8450

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

VORST

125 
WGUS73 KJKL 160038
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
738 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

KYC025-065-071-109-115-119-129-133-153-159-189-193-195-203-237-
160048-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-250216T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Breathitt KY-Estill KY-Floyd KY-Jackson KY-Johnson KY-Knott KY-
Lee KY-Letcher KY-Magoffin KY-Martin KY-Owsley KY-Perry KY-Pike
KY-Rockcastle KY-Wolfe KY-
738 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN ESTILL, SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON, SOUTHERN MARTIN, 
ROCKCASTLE, BREATHITT, FLOYD, JACKSON, NORTHERN KNOTT, SOUTHERN LEE, 
NORTHEASTERN LETCHER, CENTRAL MAGOFFIN, OWSLEY, NORTHWESTERN PERRY, 
PIKE AND SOUTHEASTERN WOLFE COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended; however, a Flood Warning is still in 
effect until 11:00 PM EST. Flooding could still pose a threat. Please
continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch also remains in effect until 1000 PM EST Sunday.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 8445 3747 8437 3754 8435 3758 8355
      3769 8351 3777 8272 3769 8257 3777 8233
      3755 8213 3754 8197 3729 8232 3719 8258
      3728 8267 3743 8322 3735 8340 3727 8397
      3733 8416 3734 8412 3734 8450

$$

VORST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1234 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rainfall, along with a round or two of thunderstorms,
  today and tonight could lead to significant flash flooding and
  river flooding.

- Snow showers and linger moisture freezing to roadway could lead
  to slippery travel at some locations Sunday evening and night.

- A moderate to heavy accumulating snowfall is possible for the
  middle of the upcoming work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2025

Moderate, to at times, heavy rainfall continues to stream
eastward across southern Kentucky/northern Tennessee with lighter
rain further north. Embedded lightning has been observed at times
near the Tennessee border. Temperatures have wet-bulbed down in
the 30s to near 40 east of I-75 and generally in the low to mid
40s further west. Southeastward trends in the axis of heaviest
precipitation in the hourly HRRR have been concerning -- as the
warm front apparently struggles to lift northward through the CWA.
We will continue to assess the situation as the 12z model suite
comes in over the next several hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2025

***HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOODING/RIVER FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND***

At 945z, most of eastern Kentucky was still dry with temperatures
ranging from the mid 30s in the north to around 50 near Lake
Cumberland. Dew points range in the 10s and 20s. Satellite and
observations show clouds continuing to thicken as regional radar
mosaic shows a large area of rain with embedded thunderstorms
congealing and moving east along the KY/TN border. A few leading
showers are just entering the Lake Cumberland area south of an
east-west oriented surface trough nearly bisecting Kentucky from
east west from Owensboro to Pikeville. Additional less intense
shower activity is moving east across the Lower Ohio Valley on
the northern side of the surface trough and impacting locations
north of I-64. The surface trough extends westward through the
Ozarks to a developing, elongated ~1005 mb surface leeside low
extending from central Kansas to northeastern New Mexico. At the
upper levels, the low pressure's parent trough is deepening as it
passes over the Four Corners Region. Ahead of the surface low, an
impressive surge of moisture is streaming northward from the Gulf
of America and into the Lower and Mid-Mississippi Valley on a 50
to 60 knot 850 mb jet.

Today...
Convection will expand rapidly eastward across the JKL CWA
through 12z as isentropic ascent increases over the Coalfields in
response to intensifying upper level divergence in the right
entrance region of a broad 300mb jet over the eastern Great
Lakes/Mid Atlantic. The most widespread and heaviest convection,
with possible embedded thunder, is expected to initially be
positioned over southern Kentucky and Tennessee after onset this
morning, with lighter activity further north. As the surface low
shifts from the Red River Valley of the South to the Ozarks late
in the day, model guidance broadly shows the west-east oriented
band of heavier rainfall gradually lifting north across the CWA
ahead of the system's surface warm front. Most of the guidance
would suggest that the warm front lifts north of the Mountain
Parkway and most likely north of the I-64 corridor as well,
leaving eastern Kentucky in open warm sector with a relative lull
in the rainfall. If this currently favored ideal scenario
materializes as modeled, this would give small streams and creeks
a few to several hours to recede until the surface low rides up
the Ohio River late tonight and drags a powerful cold front
through eastern Kentucky. Less ideal scenarios (an also less
likely) would suggest a warm front that is slower to lift through
eastern Kentucky, lingering the first period of heavy rain and
reducing the length of any lull this evening. Widespread rainfall
amounts of 1.25 to 2.50 inches can be expected in this initially
round of rainfall with locally higher amounts possible.
Temperatures will gradually warm through the day reaching the
lower 50s along the I-64 corridor to around 60 near Lake
Cumberland.

Tonight...
The RAP13 favors southwesterly 850mb winds strengthening to around
70 kts in the warm sector this evening. While surface wind gusts
to 40 mph or stronger are possible atop the higher mountains near
the Virginia and Tennessee border, relatively stable conditions in
the boundary layer should be inhibitive of gusts stronger than
about 25 mph at most lower-elevation locations, as per BUFKIT
mixed-layer momentum transfer values. While the low-level jet
shouldn't cause widespread strong surface winds, it will aid in a
low-end severe weather threat across areas near and west of I-75
as a squall line attending a pre-frontal surface trough crosses
the area after 6z. The primary severe concern will be damaging
wind gusts, though there is also a very small spinup tornado
threat, mainly over Wayne County. While this line of storms will
be moving quickly, it will be capable of dropping a quick 0.75 to
1.50 inch of rainfall (as per 15/00z HREF LPMM) on top of
saturated conditions from the earlier rainfall, thus exacerbating
any ongoing areal flooding from earlier in the day, causing a
renewed flash flood threat, and enhancing the potential for
elevated stages along the mainstem rivers. The overall axis of
heaviest rain has shifted a few 10s of miles back to the southeast
on this forecast cycle, warranting mention of a widespread 2 to 4
inches of rainfall across the forecast area by Sunday morning. In
a reasonable worst-case scenario, the HREF ensemble max rainfall
amounts range from around 5 inches adjacent to the LMK/JKL border
to 2.5 inches over Pike County. Some of the heaviest rainfall is
currently projected to fall over the basins of the Red,
Rockcastle, and Licking Rivers and Triplett, Slate Creek, Buck,
and Rock Lick Creeks. Temperatures are expected to peak in the
upper 50s to lower 60s at most locations overnight just ahead of
the squall line.

Sunday...
Mainstem rivers and creeks will be on the rise across all
of eastern Kentucky on Sunday with flood stages likely to be
breached at many locations. Meanwhile, temperatures will be plunging
through the 40s and into the 30s after early morning highs in the
50s. After the steadier rains end early, a resurgence in
upslope/convective snow showers is expected by later in the
afternoon and evening. Accumulations should be minimal, generally
a few tenths of an inch or less at most locations and confined to
grassy and elevated surfaces during the daylight hours. However, up
to an inch of accumulation is possible through 7 PM over the
highest mountaintops(e.g. Big Black Mountain).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2025

As the system that is currently expected to drop widespread 2-4
inches of rain across Kentucky moves north and east by Sunday night,
temperatures continue to fall into the lower 20s. Flurries and snow
showers on the back end of the system fall through the overnight
hours. Snowfall of up to half an inch is possible, approaching 1
inch across the highest mountains.

Monday will be dry and cool with highs in the low 30s across the
north and upper 30s across the south. Clouds will be decreasing as
the morning and day progresses. Winds will be fairly light out of
the west. Monday night, lows return to the low 20s for most, with
upper teens across the north.

Tuesday, an upper level low will descend out of the Rocky Mountain
region into the Central Plains. While the day will remain dry,
expect increasing clouds, especially after sunset, with a chance of
snow showers increasing Tuesday night, Wednesday, ending mid-day
Thursday. Measurable snow will be possible with this system, however
the upper level low that causes this has yet to make it on shore, in
the west, for better data sampling. Tuesday through Thursday
temperatures fall as colder air works into the region. Highs Tuesday
are forecast to range in the low 30s across the north to mid 40s
across the south. By Thursday, highs could be in the mid 20s, with
lows Thursday night in the single digits. The cold temperatures
Thursday night are directly tied to the models anticipating fresh
measurable snow on the ground at night. Friday and Saturday drier
weather returns to eastern Kentucky  with highs returning closer to
normal Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025

Moderate to heavy rainfall is continuing to impact eastern
Kentucky, leading to less than ideal conditions. The rain and
mainly MVFR/IFR conditions (locally worse) will linger through
the afternoon before tapering/improving from south to north toward
00z as a warm frontal boundary gradually lifts north toward the
I-64 corridor. Some isolated thunder is also possible within the
heavier activity though confidence in location and probability
remains too low for a PROB30 inclusion. Another band of showers
and possible thunderstorms is expected to sweep from west-to-east
overnight with a return for low ceilings and visibilities at
locations which experienced temporary improvement during the
evening. Southeast to south winds at 5 to 10 kts are expected
today with stronger wind gusts to 20 to 25 kts possible in the warm
sector south of KJKL through tonight. Just off the sfc as a LLJ
transports moisture in at the lower levels, winds will increase
from the south to south southwest at upwards of 40kt to 50kt
leading to a threat of LLWS at least at times for the entire area
through around 12Z Sunday. Precipitation will finally begin to
taper off by the end of the TAF period, bringing an improvement to
conditions after 18Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flood Watch through Sunday
evening for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON/JP/JMW

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
435 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-160915-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
435 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of heavy rainfall, including thunderstorms, are expected to
soak eastern Kentucky today and tonight. Widespread rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches are expected. However, in locations where heavier
showers and thunderstorms are more persistent, rainfall totals could
approach or exceed 5 inches and cause scattered to numerous instances
of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

As runoff from heavy rainfall enters the larger creeks and rivers,
significant rises are likely to lead to flooding.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected on Sunday while temperatures
back to near or below freezing.

Snow showers and freezing of lingering moisture on roadways may lead
slick spots and black ice at some locations Sunday evening and
night.

A moderate to heavy accumulating snow is possible next Tuesday night
through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report incidents of flooding this
weekend.

GEERTSON/GINNICK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1252 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     Flood            2 SW Monticello         36.82N 84.87W
02/15/2025                   Wayne              KY   Law Enforcement

            Road partially closed due to sinkhole on KY
            Highway 90 West at South Creek Rd. Sinkhole
            is approximately 8 feet deep.

&&

CC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
108 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 PM     Landslide        1 WSW Rhea              36.90N 83.27W
02/15/2025                   Harlan             KY   Dept of Highways

            KY Transportation Cabinet District 11 social
            media page reports landslide/mudslide across
            KY Highway 522 at MM 1.8. Road is estimated
            to be closed about 5 hours.

&&

CC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
116 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     Flash Flood      Evarts                  36.86N 83.20W
02/15/2025                   Harlan             KY   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reported that KY-4028 and
            KY-38 is underwater in Evarts, KY.

&&

AV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
125 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 PM     Flood            2 ESE Bonanza           37.69N 82.83W
02/15/2025                   Floyd              KY   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reported high water over
            Abbott Creek Rd at the intersection of
            Workman Branch Rd.

&&

AV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
126 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     Flood            Gays Creek              37.34N 83.41W
02/15/2025                   Perry              KY   Public

            Eagles Landing Campground in Gays Creek was
            flooded.

&&

AR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
142 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     Flash Flood      1 SW Stony Fork         36.83N 83.54W
02/15/2025                   Bell               KY   Broadcast Media

            Radio station in Bell County reported that
            crews were on their way to conduct a swift
            water rescue for a a stranded motorist that
            tried to cross a water-covered roadway on
            Highway 221 (mile marker 9) in Stoney Fork.

&&

JMW