Severe Thunderstorm Warning 425, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Rest of the Afternoon into Tonight...A trough passing to our north
will continue pushing a frontal boundary south and into the forecast
area through Wednesday morning. This will continue to aid in
sparking showers and storms across the forecast area through the
remainder of this afternoon into the overnight hours. With the
unstable airmass over the CWA, coupled with some extra forcing along
the front and deep-layer shear around 30 knots, the potential for
isolated severe storms will continue into this evening. Damaging
wind gusts will be the primary concern with such storms, with
frequent lightning and heavy downpours likely. With the loss of
daytime heating, convection is forecast to wane in both coverage and
intensity as we approach midnight, but some isolated showers and
storms can't be ruled out overnight as the front continues its
southward trek.  Otherwise, look for another mild night, despite
some slightly drier air beginning to advect into the region in the
wake of the front, as lows fall into the low and middle 70s. /19/

Wednesday through next Tuesday... The passage of a frontal
boundary tonight will usher in a period of persistent dry weather
through the end of the week. A drier airmass will settle over the
region as northwesterly flow aloft prevails, allowing temperatures
to reach the mid 90s by Friday. Rain chances will remain
extremely low, with only isolated precip possible, primarily
across the southern portions of the CWA, where probabilities
remain less than 10%. By Saturday, moisture looks to begin to
increase again, increasing the possibility for heat stress
conditions. Additionally, chances for diurnal convection will
gradually increase heading into early next workweek./KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Away from convection, VFR flight categories will prevail at area
TAF sites through much of this forecast period. At sites where
convection is observed, flight categories will fall to MVFR/IFR
status due to degraded ceilings and visibilities for a brief 1-2
hour period of time. Towards day break Wednesday, some low stratus
and/or patchy ground fog could again reduce categories to MVFR
status briefly. West winds today will gradually become more
northwesterly and northerly overnight into Wednesday in the wake
of a frontal boundary sinking through the region. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  91  70  92 /  20  10   0  10
Meridian      71  91  68  92 /  30  10   0  10
Vicksburg     73  92  71  92 /  20  10   0  10
Hattiesburg   73  94  72  95 /  20  30   0  10
Natchez       73  90  71  92 /  20  20   0  10
Greenville    72  91  70  91 /  10  10   0  10
Greenwood     71  92  69  92 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

19/KP/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
327 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

MSZ056-065-066-012100-
Smith MS-Jones MS-Covington MS-
327 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN SMITH...NORTHEASTERN
COVINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN JONES COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 327 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mize, or 11 miles north of Collins, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Taylorsville and Hebron around 335 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3174 8965 3193 8965 3184 8931 3180 8932
      3180 8929 3160 8936
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 293DEG 26KT 3180 8952

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
332 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

MSZ039-045-046-051-052-012130-
Kemper MS-Lauderdale MS-Newton MS-Neshoba MS-Noxubee MS-
332 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN NOXUBEE...
NORTHEASTERN NEWTON...KEMPER...NESHOBA AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES
THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 332 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Scooba to near Little Rock. Movement was
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Collinsville, Electric Mills, Duffee, Martin, Blackwater, Liberty,
  Little Rock, and Prismatic around 340 PM CDT.
  Porterville and Daleville around 345 PM CDT.
  Suqualena around 350 PM CDT.
  Meridian, Meridian Station, and Tamola around 355 PM CDT.
  Marion, Nellieburg, Lauderdale, Chunky, and Meehan around 405 PM
  CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 8841 3222 8903 3262 8932 3270 8932
      3293 8886 3293 8882 3295 8881 3310 8854
      3292 8835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 323DEG 23KT 3287 8845 3256 8905

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CR

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