Severe Thunderstorm Warning 267, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
908 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 846 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Thunderstorms have been developing to the west of our forecast
area this evening but are slower to shift eastward than some
earlier model guidance suggested. Still appears that storms may
move into our forecast area between about midnight to 6 AM
tomorrow. No adjustments needed to the severe weather outlook at
this time. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Tonight and Saturday: Ridging surface and aloft will hang tough to
our south while a nearly stacked low tracks east across the Great
Lakes region and pushes an associated cold front into our CWA.
Convection developing along and ahead of the cold front this
afternoon and evening is progged to move into our northwest zones
later this evening. Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts,
hail to golf ball size and perhaps a brief tornado or two will be
possible generally along and north of a line from Bastrop, Louisiana
to Eupora, Mississippi. Just southeast of this line isolated severe
storms will be possible. Although the severe storm potential should
end by 5am, additional shower and thunderstorm development will
continue Saturday morning as the stalling frontal boundary sags into
central Mississippi. During the heat of the day the frontal boundary
is expected to drift back to the north. More vigorous convection is
expected including the potential for a strong and/or isolated severe
storm to develop in close proximity of the boundary but the main
severe threat looks to hold off until the evening. Temperatures
tonight and Saturday will continue above normal. /22/

Saturday night through Thursday night:

As the frontal boundary continues to progress southward, additional
shortwave disturbances is expected to keep rain/storm chances
throughout the evening. Northwest area of the CWA remains under a
'Slight' risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather. Damaging wind gust up
to 60-70 mph and hail up to golf ball size and a brief spin up
tornado will be the main concerns within the "Slight" risk.

Another chance for severe weather will be possible on Sunday as a
frontal boundary stall to the north of the CWA. Depending on how
much instability remains in the atmosphere from Saturday's storms,
isolated severe storms will be possible on Sunday Sunday afternoon
and evening. 'Marginal' risk (1 out of 5) for severe weather
continues with the hazards of concerns being damaging wind gusts and
hail up to quarter-size. Decreasing rain chances are expected to
begin Sunday evening as a mid/sfc ridging pattern will begin to
builds over the southeast CONUS. High (lower 90s)/ low (lower 70s)
temperatures will continue to be above seasonal averages. Rain/storm
chances return on Tuesday as the next system approaches.

Upper-lvl trough with a low centered near the Upper Rockies/Mid West
is expected to push a cold front towards the region. As the boundary
approaches, an unstable airmass will be in place and a mid-lvl jet
moving into the area, will help to increase bulk shear. With
possible organized convection, SPC highlighted severe weather
potential for Tuesday. At this time, uncertainty in hazards and
timing and is subject to change over the next few days.

Post frontal passage Wednesday, northwest flow will bring in below
seasonal temperatures and quiet conditions through the end of the
week. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 846 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR conditions to start the period, with an expected line of
showers and thunderstorms to develop and move into the forecast
area after 06Z Saturday. Variable ceilings and visibility possible
with any TSRA. Chances for impacts from thunder will decrease by
12Z-18Z. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  90  71  90 /  40  50  30  10
Meridian      73  90  70  91 /  30  50  30  20
Vicksburg     74  90  72  91 /  50  40  20   0
Hattiesburg   73  94  72  93 /   0  20  20   0
Natchez       73  90  71  90 /  10  20  10   0
Greenville    71  88  72  89 /  80  20  20  20
Greenwood     71  89  71  90 /  80  20  20  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

22/SW/NF