Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Jackson, MS

289 
WGUS74 KJAN 171742
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1242 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

MSC049-121-171752-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-250517T1815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hinds MS-Rankin MS-
1242 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EAST CENTRAL HINDS AND WEST 
CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended for now. Flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3241 9032 3240 9024 3240 9023 3240 9015
      3240 9014 3240 9012 3239 8999 3234 8998
      3230 8996 3225 8997 3222 9005 3221 9031
      3227 9046 3235 9048 3239 9042

$$

EC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
636 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Today and tonight...

The severe potential should come to an end around 5am morning
with early morning radar scans showing a line of showers and
storms north of Hwy 82 propagating east towards Alabama.
Additional shower and thunderstorm development will continue later
this morning as the stalling frontal boundary sags into central
MS. Rain chances will start to diminish across our CWA later this
afternoon as the stalled frontal boundary start to slowly drag
south of I-20. Isolated severe storms will redevelop across our
forecast area later this evening into tonight with afternoon highs
peaking in the upper 80s/lower 90s. Depending how the rain pans
out later this afternoon, it is possible that a couple of areas
along and south of I-20 could see heat indices around 100 degrees.
Regardless, the "Marginal" risk will continue to be advertised
for areas along and north of the I-20 corridor. No changes have
been made to the severe graphic for tonight and a "Slight" risk
will continue to be advertise for portions of the Delta including
portions of southeast Arkansas.

Some of these storms could produce heavy rainfall at times, with
rainfall totals ranging between 0.5-1.25 inches with local higher
amounts possible especially for areas along and north of Hwy 82.
Given that this system will moving quite fast across our CWA, flash
flooding concerns will be low; however, some localized flash
flooding cannot be ruled out.

Sunday through the Late Week...

The chance for marginally severe thunderstorms will continue Sunday
through late Monday evening as the frontal boundary stalls just to
the north of our CWA. Quiet weather conditions will occur across
the area early Tuesday morning as future global guidance continues
to show the ridge axis beginning to slowly push east away from
our forecast area giving us a small little break from the rain.

A significant 1004mb low pressure system hovering over the Central
Plains will push east towards the Ohio River Valley region Tuesday
afternoon/evening. The associated cold front over southern Texas
will track east towards the southeast region late Tuesday evening.
This combined with southerly moisture flow from the Gulf, a mid-
level jet moving into the area along with an unstable airmass in
place will help increase bulk shear. This will allow for organized
convection across our whole forecast area. Because of this, SPC
has upgraded to a 30% severe weather potential for Tuesday with
higher confidence for northern portions of our CWA. There is still
alot of uncertainty in regards to both the hazards and timing as
this system is still several days away. We will keep you updated
on any changes as we get closer.

Storm chances will continue heading into early Wednesday morning as
the cold pushes southeast across our forecast area. Rain chances
will start to diminish across the region looking ahead into
Wednesday afternoon/evening with quiet conditions prevailing across
our CWA by Thursday as the cold front tracks southeast out of our
forecast area towards the Gulf Coast giving us a nice little break
from the rain. Weather conditions will remain quiet heading into
Friday with mostly to partly sunny skies by the weekend. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

SHRA & TSRA ongoing across the area, drifting south of Hwy 82
corridor. Variable ceilings, visibility & gusts >30mph possible
with any TSRA. Chances for impacts from thunder will decrease by
17/15-17Z Saturday. Some lowered ceilings have fallen to MVFR in
spots & will lift to VFR by 17/14-16Z Saturday. Additional
SHRA & TSRA development is on tap after 18/00Z Sunday, with
MVFR/IFR ceiling & vsby reductions from 18/08Z Sunday through the
end of the 12Z TAF period. /NF/DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  72  90  71 /  50  20  10  10
Meridian      89  70  91  70 /  60  30  10   0
Vicksburg     90  72  90  71 /  40  20  10   0
Hattiesburg   93  72  94  71 /  20  10   0   0
Natchez       89  72  90  72 /  20  10   0   0
Greenville    89  72  88  73 /  20  40  30  20
Greenwood     90  72  90  72 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

CR/NF/DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
603 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

MSZ038-039-046-171200-
Kemper MS-Winston MS-Noxubee MS-
603 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NOXUBEE...NORTHERN
KEMPER AND SOUTHEASTERN WINSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 700 AM CDT...

At 602 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cooksville to near Preston. Movement was
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Shuqualak, Cooksville, Paulette, Gholson, and Preston around 610
  AM CDT.
  Scooba around 625 AM CDT.
  De Kalb around 635 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
east central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3281 8836 3273 8868 3287 8892 3293 8892
      3292 8896 3293 8897 3293 8902 3304 8898
      3310 8881 3308 8833
TIME...MOT...LOC 1102Z 296DEG 22KT 3301 8831 3293 8887

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
638 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

MSZ041>043-171245-
Sharkey MS-Yazoo MS-Madison MS-
638 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT YAZOO...SOUTHEASTERN SHARKEY AND
MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 745 AM CDT...

At 637 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Satartia to near Way. Movement was east at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Canton, Bentonia, and Way around 645 AM CDT.
  Sharon around 655 AM CDT.
  Flora around 705 AM CDT.
  Jackson around 710 AM CDT.
  Farmhaven around 720 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3291 9067 3293 9010 3288 8997 3288 8973
      3264 8973 3258 8979 3259 8979 3258 8986
      3251 8993 3248 9002 3244 9007 3240 9007
      3240 9024 3249 9025 3249 9045 3256 9045
      3250 9052 3255 9059 3255 9065 3284 9076
TIME...MOT...LOC 1137Z 290DEG 15KT 3265 9048 3272 9008

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
816 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

MSZ049-171400-
Rankin MS-
816 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN COUNTY
THROUGH 900 AM CDT...

At 816 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pelahatchie, or near Brandon, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Jackson and Pelahatchie around 820 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3234 9005 3244 8986 3232 8973 3222 8973
      3208 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1316Z 328DEG 18KT 3231 8990

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

EC