Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1000 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

A line storms aligned with a strong cold front pushing into our
area has become a focus for intense rainfall rates this evening.
Strong winds aloft are venting deep convection, and the combined
influx of tropical low-level moisture from the western
Atlantic/Caribbean and upper-level moisture from the Eastern
Pacific have boosted Precipitable Water values up to 2.0 inches
along the axis of the front. GOES satellite-derived rain rate/QPE
products have shown persistent cores of deep convection with rain
rates around 2.0 inches per hour this evening. With storm motions
along the front, these storms have been training over locations
for 2 to 3 hours. Widespread personal weather station reports,
METARs, and radar estimates put rainfall measurements of 3 to 5
inches at locations between Monroe, LA up to to Grenada and west
from there so far. Flash flooding continues to be an ongoing
concern in those areas. As the line pushes east, we are starting
to see strong indications of frontogenetical forcing with the
portion moving out of northwest LA. KDGX base velocities are also
increasing over the last hour, suggesting an increased easterly
push in the next short wile. The residence time for heavy rain may
not be quite as long at locations, but localized flash flooding
especially in urban/suburban locations can be expected with
rainfall rates of near 2 inches per hour. Additionally, with a
stronger push to the cold front, the threat for damaging wind
gusts and isolated spinup tornadoes will continue to be a threat
with the squall line pushing east overnight. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Through Tomorrow: The threat for severe weather will increase from
west to east through tonight before the threat will subside tomorrow
morning. The previously stalled cold frontal boundary has begun to
shift southward as the strong 500mb ridge that has dominated the
previous few days breaks down. The primary focus of the severe will
be focused along and west of I-55 especially in the ArkLaMiss delta
region as a host of watches, warnings and advisories have already
been issued. Currently as of about 3pm portions of the ArkLaMiss
Delta have been put under a Tornado watch through 7pm tonight.
Additionally, multiple severe thunderstorm warnings and a tornado
warning have been issued for the aforementioned area. This is the
beginning of the severe event with a tornado watch for central
Mississippi likely as the boundary progresses.

Storms, some of which could be strong to severe, will be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts up to 70mph+, large hail up to golf
ball size and the possibility for a few tornadoes; some of which
could be strong. As of now we have observed peak wind gusts of up to
45mph across the CWA as a wind advisory is in effect until 7 pm this
evening. Should the environment remain largely undisturbed across
central MS until this evening, the threat for supercells, some
tornadic, could be maximized this afternoon into the evening.
Tonight we expect storms to organize into more of a line that
progresses through the area from northwest to southeast, the
tornadic threat will diminish with straight line winds being more of
a concern.

There is also a heavy rain and flooding threat for tonight over
mainly northwest portions of the area. A flood watch is in effect
through Sunday morning for portions of northern MS and the ArkLaMiss
Delta. As the more intense storms move across, rainfall rates could
reach up to 3 inches per hour, which would raise concerns for flash
flooding, especially in urban and low lying areas. Additionally,
excessive rainfall totals will increase potential for river rises
and potential flood stage increases.

By later Sunday morning, the front will have progressed through most
of the area with lingering post-frontal showers possible through
Sunday evening, and much cooler air will move into the area, which
will be quite a contrast with the the recent heat and humidity.

Through Next Week: Weather looks to be mostly quiet behind the
frontal boundary which will have progressed through the area. A
cooler and drier airmass will continue to move into the region
behind the front locking dry conditions through the long term
forecast. Temperatures look to stay in the low to mid-60s through
Wednesday before rebounding into the mid 70s by the end of the
period./KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Local radars had scattered -SHRA across the southern half of the
area with TSRA across the northwest. VFR conditions and a gusty
south wind 25-30kts wl prevail this evening away from TSRA/SHRA
activity. COnditions are expected to deteriorate from the
northwest as TSRA along and ahead of a cold front move into the
area and bring lower flying conditions. TSRA will continue
shifting east through tonight and Sunday morning. IFR/MVFR cigs
and -RA wl develop in the wake of the front. The -RA wl taper off
from the west Sunday morning but the IFR/MVFR cigs wl prevail
through the end of the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  67  47  59 / 100  80  20   0
Meridian      69  75  49  60 /  90 100  40  10
Vicksburg     57  64  47  59 / 100  40  10   0
Hattiesburg   71  76  52  63 /  90  90  60  20
Natchez       58  65  47  58 / 100  40  10   0
Greenville    53  58  44  59 / 100  20  10   0
Greenwood     57  63  44  60 / 100  30  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for MSZ018-019-025>029-034>036-
     040>042-047.

LA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for ARZ074-075.

&&

NF/KP/22

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
910 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Flash Flood      5 SSE Crossett          33.06N 91.94W
04/05/2025                   Ashley             AR   Emergency Mngr

            Hwy 133 flooded with ankle deep water. Other
            roads flooded in the area.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
913 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     Flash Flood      3 W Hamburg             33.23N 91.86W
04/05/2025                   Ashley             AR   Emergency Mngr

            AR 12 closed due to flooding.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
919 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     Flash Flood      1 NW Bastrop            32.78N 91.92W
04/05/2025                   Morehouse          LA   Law Enforcement

            Several roads in town are flooded.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
936 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     Flash Flood      Indianola               33.45N 90.65W
04/05/2025                   Sunflower          MS   Law Enforcement

            Several roads in town are flooded.

&&

CE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
950 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

LAZ009-016-MSZ040-042-047-048-060345-
Madison LA-East Carroll LA-Warren MS-Hinds MS-Yazoo MS-Issaquena MS-
950 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN EAST CARROLL AND
NORTHEASTERN MADISON PARISHES...WARREN...SOUTHWESTERN YAZOO...
NORTHWESTERN HINDS AND SOUTHERN ISSAQUENA COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM
CDT...

At 950 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Mansford, or near Tallulah, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Eagle Bend around 955 PM CDT.
  Vicksburg around 1000 PM CDT.
  Redwood around 1005 PM CDT.
  Oak Ridge around 1015 PM CDT.
  Youngton around 1025 PM CDT.
  Phoenix around 1030 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Delta and Richmond.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Louisiana...and central and west central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3262 9117 3269 9046 3222 9047 3225 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 260DEG 36KT 3245 9112

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1038 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

MSZ026>029-032-036-037-060415-
Carroll MS-Grenada MS-Attala MS-Montgomery MS-Choctaw MS-Webster MS-
Holmes MS-
1038 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHOCTAW...HOLMES...
CARROLL...SOUTHEASTERN GRENADA...CENTRAL ATTALA...WESTERN WEBSTER AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM CDT...

At 1038 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Teoc to near Black Hawk to Eden. Movement
was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Coxburg, Lexington, Brozville, North Carrollton, Carrollton,
  Tolarville, Howard, Jefferson, and Emory around 1045 PM CDT.
  Winona, Vaiden, and Bowling Green around 1050 PM CDT.
  Elliott, Franklin, Ebenezer, and Duck Hill around 1055 PM CDT.
  West around 1100 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for central and
north central Mississippi. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect
until 500 AM CDT for central and north central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3344 8937 3294 8958 3296 9019 3300 9032
      3302 9034 3301 9037 3334 9015 3366 9001
      3372 8939 3372 8931
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 253DEG 34KT 3359 8997 3327 8999 3299 9032

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SAS