Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
147 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

A line storms aligned with a strong cold front pushing into our
area has become a focus for intense rainfall rates this evening.
Strong winds aloft are venting deep convection, and the combined
influx of tropical low-level moisture from the western
Atlantic/Caribbean and upper-level moisture from the Eastern
Pacific have boosted Precipitable Water values up to 2.0 inches
along the axis of the front. GOES satellite-derived rain rate/QPE
products have shown persistent cores of deep convection with rain
rates around 2.0 inches per hour this evening. With storm motions
along the front, these storms have been training over locations
for 2 to 3 hours. Widespread personal weather station reports,
METARs, and radar estimates put rainfall measurements of 3 to 5
inches at locations between Monroe, LA up to to Grenada and west
from there so far. Flash flooding continues to be an ongoing
concern in those areas. As the line pushes east, we are starting
to see strong indications of frontogenetical forcing with the
portion moving out of northwest LA. KDGX base velocities are also
increasing over the last hour, suggesting an increased easterly
push in the next short wile. The residence time for heavy rain may
not be quite as long at locations, but localized flash flooding
especially in urban/suburban locations can be expected with
rainfall rates of near 2 inches per hour. Additionally, with a
stronger push to the cold front, the threat for damaging wind
gusts and isolated spinup tornadoes will continue to be a threat
with the squall line pushing east overnight. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Through Tomorrow: The threat for severe weather will increase from
west to east through tonight before the threat will subside tomorrow
morning. The previously stalled cold frontal boundary has begun to
shift southward as the strong 500mb ridge that has dominated the
previous few days breaks down. The primary focus of the severe will
be focused along and west of I-55 especially in the ArkLaMiss delta
region as a host of watches, warnings and advisories have already
been issued. Currently as of about 3pm portions of the ArkLaMiss
Delta have been put under a Tornado watch through 7pm tonight.
Additionally, multiple severe thunderstorm warnings and a tornado
warning have been issued for the aforementioned area. This is the
beginning of the severe event with a tornado watch for central
Mississippi likely as the boundary progresses.

Storms, some of which could be strong to severe, will be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts up to 70mph+, large hail up to golf
ball size and the possibility for a few tornadoes; some of which
could be strong. As of now we have observed peak wind gusts of up to
45mph across the CWA as a wind advisory is in effect until 7 pm this
evening. Should the environment remain largely undisturbed across
central MS until this evening, the threat for supercells, some
tornadic, could be maximized this afternoon into the evening.
Tonight we expect storms to organize into more of a line that
progresses through the area from northwest to southeast, the
tornadic threat will diminish with straight line winds being more of
a concern.

There is also a heavy rain and flooding threat for tonight over
mainly northwest portions of the area. A flood watch is in effect
through Sunday morning for portions of northern MS and the ArkLaMiss
Delta. As the more intense storms move across, rainfall rates could
reach up to 3 inches per hour, which would raise concerns for flash
flooding, especially in urban and low lying areas. Additionally,
excessive rainfall totals will increase potential for river rises
and potential flood stage increases.

By later Sunday morning, the front will have progressed through most
of the area with lingering post-frontal showers possible through
Sunday evening, and much cooler air will move into the area, which
will be quite a contrast with the the recent heat and humidity.

Through Next Week: Weather looks to be mostly quiet behind the
frontal boundary which will have progressed through the area. A
cooler and drier airmass will continue to move into the region
behind the front locking dry conditions through the long term
forecast. Temperatures look to stay in the low to mid-60s through
Wednesday before rebounding into the mid 70s by the end of the
period./KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

A line of strong to severe TSRA continues to move east across the
forecast area. Winds will quickly shift out of the northwest and
north in the wake of the squall line. Cold front associated with
this squall line will also bring widespread IFR ceilings and
possible -DZ or -RA through the period, with gradually improving
visibility from west to east. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       47  59  42  67 /  20   0   0   0
Meridian      49  60  41  68 /  40  10   0   0
Vicksburg     47  59  42  67 /  10   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   52  63  42  71 /  60  20   0   0
Natchez       47  58  41  67 /  10   0   0   0
Greenville    44  59  44  63 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     44  60  42  64 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MSZ018-019-025>029-
     034>036-040>042-047.

LA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023-025.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ074-075.

&&

KP/NF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW Clinton           32.32N 90.34W
04/06/2025                   Hinds              MS   Public

            Tree down on a home.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     Flash Flood      Cleveland               33.75N 90.73W
04/05/2025                   Bolivar            MS   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Significant flooding in town, many streets
            flooded some with roughly 2 ft of water in
            the roads and water well up into yards.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1233 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     Flash Flood      2 ESE Greenville        33.40N 91.04W
04/05/2025                   Washington         MS   Emergency Mngr

            Significant flooding across Greenville with
            many streets or roads flooded. Many stalled
            vehicles.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
153 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ENE Utica             32.11N 90.60W
04/05/2025                   Hinds              MS   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency management reported a tree down on
            Hwy 27 South near Morrison Rd in Utica MS.

&&

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
207 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSE Clinton           32.33N 90.33W
04/06/2025                   Hinds              MS   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency management reported a tree on a
            vehicle with entrapment and injuries on the
            Natchez Trace south of I-20 in Clinton.

&&

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
234 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     Flood            Starkville              33.45N 88.82W
04/06/2025                   Oktibbeha          MS   Public

            Yard was flooded, and water was across both
            lanes of MS Highway 12.

&&

NF