Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
318 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers or thunderstorms expected through this evening.
  Localized flooding possible

- Heat Advisory in effect through 8PM Tuesday with dangerous heat
  indices at or above 105F and overnight temperatures remaining
  in the mid 70s with high humidity

- Daily storm chances with more widespread thunderstorms expected
  for the middle of next week

- Dangerous heat indices expected to continue into Wednesday, but
  greater convective chances limits confidence on advisory criteria

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

The weather pattern appears relatively similar throughout the short
term period with a Heat Advisory in effect. Highs in the low 90s
combined with muggy dewpoints well in the 70s will lead to peak heat
indices approaching or exceeding 105F during the afternoon,
especially on Monday. Overnight temperatures only falling into the
mid 70s and high humidity will not allow for much relief so the
advisory continues through the period.

Current KIND radar imagery shows scattered diurnal convection has
developed thanks to daytime heating over a hot and humid airmass in
place. This convection is expected to continue through the evening
hours before the loss of daytime heating allows for precipitation to
diminish. Severe weather is not expected, but warm rain processes
promoting efficient rainfall rates could lead to localized
flooding. This is mainly a concern if training storms occur as
mean flow suggest storms will be moving east around 15-20 mph. An
isolated shower or storm is possible during the overnight period,
but there is not a strong signal in guidance. If any shower or
storm develops, it would likely be near any lingering weak
boundaries so confidence is very low.

Low storm chances persist into Monday with another hot and humid day
ahead. Forecast soundings show strong subsidence and mid-level dry
air during the day though which may limit convective potential. The
best chance for any precipitation appears to be if upstream
convection can make it into the area. Latest CAMs show an MCS
developing well northwest of central Indiana tonight and propagating
southeastward. The system should weaken substantially before
approaching, but any remaining cold pool or outflow boundary may
help to spark additional convection Monday. Low POPs remain in the
forecast to account for the potential.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Monday night through Wednesday...

An upper ridge still centered over the central CONUS early in the
extended and deep moisture still in place will allow for hot-humid
conditions to persist. A heat advisory is in effect through Tuesday
evening with peak indices around or slightly above 105F. With
central Indiana remaining on the northern or northeastern periphery
of the ridge, convection from subtle impulses could move into the
area.

A more organized system and frontal boundary is expected to move
through the region on Wednesday with greater precipitation chances.
Strong destabilization ahead of the boundary is expected with some
strengthening of mid-level flow. This may support the potential for
loosely-organized thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts. Forecast soundings depict steep low-level lapse rates and
drier air aloft promoting strong DCAPE favoring the threat for
isolated damaging wind gusts. The Heat Advisory was not extended
into Wednesday as greater convective chances leads to more
uncertainty in peak heat index values. It does appear the advisory
may need to be extended for portions of the area in future updates
though.

Warm rain processes aiding in efficient rainfall rates could also
lead to localized flooding. This threat should be confined to any
areas that see training storms within a short period of time as mean
flow suggest storms will be moving at a sufficient pace.

Wednesday night through Sunday...

The aforementioned frontal boundary moving in Wednesday is expected
to slow down and briefly stall before a backdoor cold front finally
pushes out the deeper moisture lingering over the region. Forcing
from the boundary combined with deeper moisture still in place will
keep precipitation chances in the forecast. The greatest chances are
across south-central Indiana on Thursday as the front should linger
through most of the day. Quiet weather conditions are then expected
Friday into next weekend as surface high pressure settles in.

Expect temperatures to trend cooler into Thursday with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s. The big difference is on Friday though once
surface high pressure moves in leading to dewpoints dropping
significantly. Look for highs in the mid-upper 70s Friday and much
more comfortable dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s. Saturday should b
e quite similar to Friday with only a slight moderation in
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Impacts:

- Scattered convection this afternoon and evening, dissipating 23Z-
01Z

Discussion:

Very limited change in the overall air mass and weather situation
across Central Indiana. As we have seen the past few days, daily
diurnal heating will lead to thunderstorm development across Central
Indiana mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Little
overall change remains within the column, as it continues to show
steep lapse rates, abundant CAPE and high pwats. Any TSRA that does
strike a TAF site likely will produce brief MVFR to IFR conditions.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Updike

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
337 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

INZ053-060-061-272015-
Owen IN-Greene IN-Sullivan IN-
337 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Sullivan, southern Owen and Greene Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 336 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles northwest of Bloomfield to 8 miles
southwest of Linton. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph. Localized flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Linton, Bloomfield, Worthington, Lyons, Switz City, Newberry,
Solsberry, Pleasantville, Owensburg, and Freedom.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3891 8735 3917 8711 3917 8705 3920 8705
      3922 8668 3890 8668
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 273DEG 15KT 3917 8707 3895 8728

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ME