Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
724 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory across portions of central and southern Indiana
  through this evening

- Dangerous heat continues into early next week with additional days
  of greater than 100 degree heat indices likely, especially Monday
  through Wednesday

- Periodic showers and storms through the weekend with isolated
  flooding and strong winds

- More widespread thunderstorms expected for the middle of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Scattered convection had hit an earlier peak in coverage but has
dwindled down locally since 1730Z. One factor that appears to be
aiding this is a small area of subsidence first noted on the Day
Cloud Phase satellite imagery extending from the Indy metro
southwest back into Owen County. Despite the increased cu
coverage...18Z temperatures were again in the upper 80s and lower
90s with peak heat indices pushing the 105 degree level across the
southern half of the forecast area.

The stagnant pattern of late continues this afternoon and will do so
through the short term. A remnant outflow boundary from earlier
served as one of the initial focal points for convective development
in addition to the unstable airmass present. As mentioned above
however...subtle subsidence in the wake of a more pronounced area of
convection now near KMIE has led to a decrease in coverage for the
time being. This is temporary and as additional storms across
eastern Illinois press east into the late afternoon... potential for
outflow boundaries and an increase in instability will likely see an
uptick in scattered coverage that will extend into early evening.
These storms will largely remain subsevere with torrential rainfall
and lightning as the primary hazards...but cannot rule out stronger
winds with any collapsing downdrafts.

Focus then shifts to convection currently becoming better organized
over western Illinois. Hi-res guidance has maintained a steady
signal in tracking these storms into the Wabash Valley later this
evening and perhaps further east across the northern half of the
forecast area before diminishing overnight with a subtle increase in
850mb flow . There is a nonzero risk for damaging winds later this
evening focused mainly over the northern Wabash Valley and will need
to monitor.

The greater impact from the convection though is likely to play a
role in how convective development unfolds on Sunday as a remnant
outflow boundary from the storms is poised to set up somewhere
across the forecast area. Current indications at the moment are that
this will be in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor and could aid in
storms developing quickly by early afternoon and potentially with
greater coverage than what we have seen today. Westerly 850mb flow
would support sluggish movement to storms with a backbuilding
component adding to the PWATs in excess of 2 inches that strongly
suggest torrential rainfall and localized flooding as front and
center concerns again. Model soundings show gusty winds with
collapsing downdrafts as another threat as well.

Have elected to let the Heat Advisory across the southern half of
the forecast area go ahead and expire at 00Z this evening with no
extension into Sunday. Peak heat indices will be below criteria
though potential is there for some locations across southern
portions of central Indiana to make it into the low 100s. The
combination of expected convective and cloud coverage however lowers
confidence on more widespread advisory level heat indices being met.
With the expansion of upper ridging for Monday and Tuesday a return
to heat headlines will likely be needed. This will be discussed
further in the Long Term section below.

Temps...another night with lows int he mid to upper 70s is expected
for tonight. Highs Sunday are likely to be a couple degrees lower
than Friday and today owing to the expectation of increased coverage
of convection and clouds. Upper 80s to around 90 are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

The deep upper level ridging will flex northward to begin the
workweek with the core of the ridge settling across the Missouri and
mid Mississippi Valleys by Tuesday. This will cause a renewed surge
of hot and exceptionally humid conditions through the first part of
the week while limiting convection to diurnally driven isolated
activity. A strong upper level low will dive southeast from James
Bay into the Canadian Maritimes during the second half of the week
forcing a retrograde to the ridge back into the High Plains.
Ultimately this will aid in sending a cold front through the Ohio
Valley by Thursday night with increased convective threats Wednesday
and Thursday...but more importantly will bring an end to this
stretch of heat and humidity with a dry and pleasant airmass
poised to settle in to open August.

Sunday Night Through Thursday

Rising mid level heights as the ridge builds north will lead to the
reestablishment of a cap while deeper forcing and the remnant
frontal boundary shift well north into the Great Lakes. Isolated
diurnal convection will be a possibility focused during the
afternoon and evening Monday and possibly Tuesday but the presence
of the cap and warmer air aloft will mitigate more substantial
coverage. Storms will produce torrential rainfall and locally
damaging winds from collapsing downbursts cannot be ruled out with
stronger cells.

As the ridging begins to flatten and retrograde by midweek...a cold
front to the north will steadily drop south into the region. While
some timing differences remain within the extended model guidance...
a more pronounced threat for convection and possibly a more
organized risk for severe weather will impact the region first
Wednesday afternoon and night across the northern half of the
forecast area gradually transitioning south Thursday. Damaging
winds are again likely to be the primary concern based on model
soundings with torrential rainfall and localized flooding as well
with PWATs at or just above 2 inches pooling immediately ahead of
the front.

Additional heat headlines are virtually a necessity for Monday and
Tuesday as peak heat indices will be in the 105 to 110 degree range.
May need headlines for part of the area Wednesday as well. For now
will be messaging heavily via the HWO and social media with
expectation of issuance of new headlines by Sunday afternoon at the
latest.

Thursday Night through Saturday

Lingering storms are possible into early Friday but the frontal
boundary should clear the Ohio River and continue south away from
the region on Friday. As mentioned above...the passage of the
boundary will take the oppressive airmass that has been over the
region since earlier this week with it...replacing with a
cooler...drier and much more pleasant airmass as low level flow
transitions to northerly as large high pressure settles across the
Great Lakes. There is growing confidence in temperatures likely to
be the coolest we have experienced over much of the area since the
second week of June with upper 70s and lower 80s expected. Lows may
drop into the mid and upper 50s as well for Friday and Saturday
mornings. For reference...Indianapolis has not seen a low
temperature below 60 degrees since June 11. To put it mildly... we
will be opening on August on an absolutely spectacular note.

Return flow as the high moves east by early in the first week of
August will bring temperatures back to near normal levels in the 80s
with the potential for an increase in scattered convection as well.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Impacts:

- Scattered convection this evening, dissipating 01Z-03Z
- Possibility for additional convection at KLAF/KIND after 07Z
- Renewed storm development Sunday afternoon

Discussion:

Scattered convection near KLAF and possibly isolated convection near
KIND early this evening...is expected to dissipate by 01Z-03Z.
Brief MVFR/IFR is possible at KLAF from passing TSRA...with the
potential for briefly gusty winds as well. Outside of convection,
expect southwest winds at 10-15KT early this evening...diminishing
to mainly 3-8KT by overnight hours.

Additional organized convection over Illinois will potentially reach
KLAF by 07Z...with lower chances of convection at other central
Indiana terminals towards 12Z.  Any subtle and quasi-stationary
outflow boundaries from this evening's and the overnight's cells
could serve to initiate yet around round of SHRA/TSRA towards the
end of the period Sunday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ043>047-051>057-
060>065-067>072.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...AGM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
315 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

INZ043>047-051>057-060>065-067>072-271000-
Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-
Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-
Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
315 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 pm this evening as peak heat
indices will be around 105.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible through tonight. Widespread
severe weather is not expected however a stray severe storm cannot be
ruled out. Storms may produce heavy rain resulting in flooding.
Lightning is a threat with any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Afternoon heat indices as hot as 100 to 110 degrees are likely at
times...especially Monday through Wednesday.

Numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday with isolated afternoon
storms Monday and Tuesday. An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled
out at times, with damaging winds the primary threat. A more
substantial risk for widespread thunderstorms with the possibility of
severe weather mainly in the form of damaging winds will come
Wednesday and Thursday.

Any storm through Thursday will have the potential for heavy rain
and localized flooding, as well as the threat for dangerous cloud to
ground lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, though spotters are encouraged
to report any strong wind gusts or damage observed along with any
flooding.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ021-028>031-035>042-048-049-271000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Hancock-Henry-
315 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible through tonight. Widespread
severe weather is not expected however a stray severe storm cannot be
ruled out. Storms may produce heavy rain resulting in flooding.
Lightning is a threat with any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Afternoon heat indices as hot as 100 to 110 degrees are likely at
times...especially Monday through Wednesday.

Numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday with isolated afternoon
storms Monday and Tuesday. An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled
out at times, with damaging winds the primary threat. A more
substantial risk for widespread thunderstorms with the possibility of
severe weather mainly in the form of damaging winds will come
Wednesday and Thursday.

Any storm through Thursday will have the potential for heavy rain
and localized flooding, as well as the threat for dangerous cloud to
ground lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, though spotters are encouraged
to report any strong wind gusts or damage observed along with any
flooding.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Ryan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
648 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

INZ021-029>031-262330-
Howard IN-Clinton IN-Tippecanoe IN-Carroll IN-
648 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Carroll,
east central Tippecanoe, northern Clinton and northwestern Howard
Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 647 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles south of Walton to near Lafayette.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph. Localized flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Kokomo, West Lafayette, Rossville, Dayton, Mulberry,
Russiaville, and Burlington.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 163 and 173.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4056 8586 4055 8586 4029 8660 4032 8686
      4041 8695 4056 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 255DEG 21KT 4056 8626 4039 8683

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
722 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

INZ021-030-031-038-270000-
Howard IN-Clinton IN-Tipton IN-Carroll IN-
722 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Carroll, northern Clinton, southwestern Howard and northwestern
Tipton Counties through 800 PM EDT...

At 721 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Frankfort, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Frankfort, Mulberry, Russiaville, and Michigantown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 8662 4034 8667 4050 8628 4032 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 251DEG 21KT 4031 8660

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
747 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

INZ030-031-038-270030-
Howard IN-Clinton IN-Tipton IN-
747 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of east central Clinton,
Howard and northern Tipton Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 746 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Grissom Afb to near Kokomo to
10 miles west of Tipton. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph. Localized flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kokomo, Greentown, Sharpsville, and Indian Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4056 8586 4038 8586 4033 8629 4042 8623
      4056 8624 4057 8587
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 257DEG 27KT 4057 8615 4044 8615 4034 8622

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
802 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

INZ040-270015-
Madison IN-
802 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Madison
County through 815 PM EDT...

At 801 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Elwood, or 12 miles northwest of Anderson, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Elwood, Alexandria, Frankton, and Orestes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4031 8563 4018 8580 4021 8586 4026 8586
      4038 8580 4038 8574
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 224DEG 28KT 4024 8582

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
829 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

INZ040-041-270115-
Madison IN-Delaware IN-
829 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Madison and
Delaware Counties through 915 PM EDT...

At 829 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Alexandria, or 11 miles north of Anderson, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph. Localized flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Muncie, Elwood, Alexandria, Yorktown, Albany, Frankton, Eaton,
Summitville, Gaston, Selma, Orestes, Ball State University, and
Prairie Creek Reservoir.

This includes Interstate 69 between mile markers 237 and 252.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4022 8583 4038 8582 4038 8522 4009 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 270DEG 25KT 4025 8573

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
855 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

INZ042-270145-
Randolph IN-
855 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Randolph County
through 945 PM EDT...

At 855 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Muncie, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph. Localized flooding.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Winchester, Union City, Parker City, Farmland, Lynn, Ridgeville,
Saratoga, and Modoc.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 8508 4005 8521 4031 8522 4031 8480
      4001 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 266DEG 25KT 4015 8528

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ME